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Goldman Sachs ups recession probability to 35% as ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs loom

March 31, 2025
- Goldman Sachs has upped the probability of a recession to 35% in a research note. The bank pegged recession chances at 20% earlier in March.
- Recession chatter has increased as the extent of President Donald Trump’s tariffs come into focus.
- “Liberation Day” is what President Trump has dubbed the day he plans to institute a form of reciprocal tariffs. That day is Wednesday, April 2.
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One of America’s largest banks says the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months has increased to 35%.

Goldman Sachs released the latest forecast just days before the Trump administration institutes “Liberation Day” policies.

“We now see a 12-month recession probability of 35%,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note dated March 30. “The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate (of a U.S. recession) reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.”

Goldman raises its 12-month recession probability from 20% to 35%. pic.twitter.com/LToFpq3BtA
— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) March 30, 2025

Goldman Sachs isn’t alone in its projections of a possible recession. UCLA’s Anderson School of Management issued a “recession watch” earlier in March. They said that if Trump’s proposals are fully or nearly fully enacted, it could contract enough sectors to trigger a recession in the next year or two.

What will ‘Liberation Day’ bring?

Recession talk has picked up amid the White House’s tariff campaign. The administration dubbed Wednesday, April 2, as “Liberation Day.”

“We have ‘Liberation Day,’ as you know, on April 2,” Trump said on Friday, March 28. “Many countries have taken advantage of us, the likes of which nobody even thought was possible for many, many decades, for decades. And, you know, that has to stop.”

The Trump administration has stood by the importance of its policies, even if they cause some economic pain in the near term.

“There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big,” President Donald Trump told Fox News on March 9. “We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time.”

“These policies are the most important thing America has ever had, so it is worth it,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CBS News in response to a question earlier in March about whether the administration’s economic policy could lead to a recession. “It is worth it. I think the only reason there could possibly be a recession is because of the Biden nonsense that we had to live with.”

Federal Reserve chair says recession risks ‘not high’

President Trump plans to roll out his latest round of tariffs on April 2. Goldman is expecting reciprocal tariffs averaging 15% across U.S. trading partners. The uncertainty around what tariff policy may be enacted caused markets to fall on Monday, March 31. The S&P 500 fell to its lowest level in six months.

“If you look at outside forecasts, forecasters have generally raised, a number of them have raised their possibility of a recession somewhat, but still at relatively moderate levels, still in the region of the traditional because they were extremely low,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said after UCLA’s “recession watch” was issued. “If you go back two months, people were saying that the likelihood of a recession was extremely low. So it has moved up, but it’s not high.”

Core personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, was up 2.8% in February from the previous year. Goldman increased its PCE forecast for 2025 to 3.5%. At the same time, the bank downgraded its economic growth estimates to 1%.

“While sentiment has been a poor predictor of activity over the last few years, we are less dismissive of the recent decline because economic fundamentals are not as strong as in prior years,” Goldman added in its note.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index fell for the fourth straight month in March. Meanwhile, the expectations index, which looks at “consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions,” dropped to its lowest level in 12 years.

The latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecaster has the U.S. contracting 2.8% in the first quarter of 2025. A recession is generally called when there are two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. However, the final official decision comes from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Inflation cools for sixth month in September but food and shelter stay hot

October 10, 2024
Consumer price inflation cooled for the sixth straight month in September 2024, coming in at 2.4% annually. Monthly prices rose 0.2% from August, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Thursday, Oct. 10.

Core inflation, which removes more volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3% annually and 0.3% compared to August. September’s report came in just a tick higher than expectations for the month.

Shelter, which has been the main driver of core inflation, went up 0.2% compared to August but is still up 4.9% year-over-year. Annual shelter inflation fell from 5.2% in August. Shelter price increases are still responsible for 65% of the yearly rise in core prices.

The price of groceries ticked up 0.4% on a monthly basis, and food away from home rose 0.3% over August. Food as a whole is up 2.3% annually. In September, the index for eggs rose 8.4% annually, which experts attribute to the ongoing bird flu.

Together, shelter and food account for 75% of all inflation for the month.

The energy index fell 6.8% on an annual basis and 1.9% compared to August. That drop was driven by energy commodity prices, which are down 15.3% annually.

The price of new vehicles fell 1.3% while used vehicles fell 5.1% annually. Vehicle inflation was a major driver of inflation in recent years.

September’s inflation report will further inform the Federal Reserve’s next move in November after lowering its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps in September.

Analysts expect the central bank will make an additional 25 bps cut at the November Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which starts the day after the election.

The U.S. economy added far more jobs than anticipated in September and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. The U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September when economists expected around 150,000. In August, preliminary data showed 142,000 jobs added and 4.2% unemployment.

The latest inflation report comes in the wake of Hurricane Helene and as Hurricane Milton batters Florida. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said the two hurricanes could affect the economy for at least six months.
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September surprise: US adds 254,000 jobs, unemployment dips to 4.1%

October 4, 2024
The U.S. economy added far more jobs than anticipated in September while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September when economists expected around 150,000. In August, preliminary data showed 142,000 jobs added and 4.2% unemployment.

With the release on Friday, Oct. 4, the BLS revised July’s numbers up by 55,000 to 144,000 jobs added for the month. It also revised up August’s numbers by 17,000 jobs, from 142,000 to 159,000 jobs added.

In total, jobs added in July and August are 72,000 more than previously reported by the Labor Department.

The latest jobs report comes less than a month after the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. The U.S. central bank has a dual mandate to maintain stable prices and reach full employment.

This stronger-than-anticipated report will put the Fed’s November meeting in focus, where it is anticipated it will cut rates again by 25 bps.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the number of people not working who want a job is at 5.7 million. Construction employment continues to trend up, adding 25,000 jobs in September. The construction sector has consistently grown over the last 12 months, adding an average of 19,000 jobs per month.

Jobs in food services and drinking establishments rose by 69,000 in September, considerably above the 12-month average of 14,000 per month. This sector contained the largest increase in jobs for the month.

Health care added 45,000 new jobs, which is below the average monthly gain of 57,000 over the last 12 months.

The latest jobs report comes amid two large labor disputes.

Machinists at Boeing have been on strike for three weeks. Meanwhile, a dockworkers strike at ports along the East Coast hit the picket line earlier this week, but were able to reach a tentative agreement to suspend the strike until Jan. 15, 2025.
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Powell says Federal Reserve is in no ‘hurry to cut rates quickly’

September 30, 2024
Experts say the greatest threat to the economy in the next year isn’t the upcoming election or even conflict in the Middle East or Ukraine. More professional forecasters say a monetary policy mistake by the Federal Reserve poses the greatest downside risk.

This month, the Federal Reserve adjusted its policy rate for the first time in 14 months. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in a supersized kickoff to the rate-cutting cycle. But in a speech Monday, Sept. 30 in Nashville, Fed Chair Jerome Powell essentially said not to read too much into the size of that first cut.

“This is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly. It’s a committee that wants to be guided,” Powell said. “Ultimately, we will be guided by the incoming data, and if the economy slows more than we expect, then we can cut faster. If it slows less than we expect, we can cut slower. And that’s really what’s going to decide it.”

We’re recalibrating policy to maintain the strength in the economy, not because of weakness in the economy.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

The Fed’s goal is a soft landing, where they raise rates high enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession. So far, they’ve reached the rate-cut part of the equation without a recorded recession.

“Our design overall is to achieve disinflation down to 2% without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has often come with these inflation processes,” Powell said during the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting. “That’s been our goal all along. We’ve made progress toward it. We haven’t completed that task.”

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is down to 2.2%, a hair above its 2% target, while core inflation is higher at 2.7%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% from the 3.4% low hit in January and April 2023.

Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents project unemployment will rise to 4.4% by the end of this year and next, while core inflation won’t hit the 2% target until 2026.

While unemployment is higher than the modern-era lows experienced not too long ago, Powell rebuffed worries about the weakening labor market.

“Just take the current situation,” he said. “What you see is solid growth in the economy and what you see is a solid labor market. So in a way, the measures we’re taking now are really due to the fact that our stance is due to be recalibrated, but at a time when the economy is in solid condition, that’s what we’re doing. We’re recalibrating policy to maintain the strength in the economy, not because of weakness in the economy.”

The Fed will meet two more times this year, with its next 2-day meeting right after the election.

Right now, markets are leaning more toward a 25-basis-point cut rather than a 50-basis-point cut in November, according to CME’s FedWatch. Assuming those in the 25-basis-point camp are correct, that would bring the target range down to 4.5% to 4.75%.

Traders are then projecting the rate will drop down to between 4% and 4.25% following the December meeting, which would equate to a 50-basis-point cut. That’s higher than the 4.4% the Fed itself is projecting.
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Federal Reserve cuts rate by 50 bps ending hike cycle that started in 2022

September 18, 2024
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a supersized 50 basis points, outpacing expectations of 25 basis points. Markets surged Wednesday afternoon, Sept. 18, as the central bank ended its rate-hike campaign that started in 2022.

The federal funds rate now sits between 4.75%-5%, down from 5.25%-5.5%. This marks the first rate cut in four years after inflation spiked amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace,” The Federal Open Markets Committee said in a statement. “Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.”

Inflation cooled for the fifth straight month in August at 2.5%, inching closer to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. But core prices, which strip out food and energy, stayed stagnant at 3.2%.

“In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” the statement read. “The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective.”

The S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow notched gains in immediate response to news of the rate cut.

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of full employment and price stability. To keep those numbers in line with a strong economy, they use tools like adjusting the federal funds rate, which is the overnight lending rate for banks but in a downstream way affects interest rates on everything from mortgages to car loans.

The FOMC will not meet in October. The next policy meeting will take place on Nov. 6-7, right after Election Day.
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Core inflation is still above 3%: Is it time for the Fed to move its target?

September 11, 2024
Inflation cooled for the fifth straight month in August at 2.5%, inching closer to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. But core prices, which strip out food and energy, stayed stagnant at 3.2%. Is it time for the central bank to adjust its core inflation target of 2%?

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of full employment and price stability. To keep those numbers in line with a strong economy, they use tools like adjusting the federal funds rate, which is the overnight lending rate for banks but in a downstream way that affects interest rates on everything from mortgages to car loans.

The range is currently set at 5.25-5.50% after the Fed raised rates from near zero starting in March 2022 through July 2023. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet next week and is expected to start cutting interest rates for the first time this year.

While it seems like the 2.5% increase in consumer prices would give Fed Chair Jerome Powell a little cover, the central bank puts the focus on core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. Core inflation is still at 3.2% annually due mainly to rising shelter costs.

Straight Arrow News interviewed Monetary Macro CIO and the Fed Guy Joseph Wang Wednesday morning, Sept. 11, to discuss the latest inflation data. The conversation turned to whether the 2% target is a realistic endgame.

The following transcript is edited for length and clarity. Watch the full clip in the video above and catch the entire interview on SAN’s YouTube page.

Joseph Wang: I think we might be in a new, higher inflation regime. So we have to be careful. The future does not always look like the past. Over the past 20 years, we’ve had a world where inflation was pretty stable around 2%, but it wasn’t always like that.

Before the “Great Moderation” period, we were in the 1970s and 80s where inflation was volatile and sometimes very high. I think we’re heading into an era where inflation is probably going to be more volatile and higher than it was in the past. That’s certainly what the CPI is telling me.

Now looking on a year-over-year basis, we’ve been above 3% for some time and honestly, it looks kind of stuck there. Now we could have recessions that temporarily bring that down, but I think the next time we have a recession, maybe we just have more stimulus checks and so forth, and that makes it surge again.

So I think the future is going to be a world where inflation is going to be higher and more volatile. And that’s something that we’re going to have to get used to.

Simone Del Rosario: Fed Chair Jerome Powell gets asked this a lot and he loves to slap this down, which is, “Is the 2% target rate out of date and should we be looking at a 3% target?”

I know Jay Powell continues to stick to his 2% conviction but are you hearing anything different?

Joseph Wang: We have to realize that the 2% inflation target is nothing magical. It’s nothing set in stone. It’s a decision made by people. Now, in the Fed’s case, it was decided in 2012 to have an inflation target of 2%. Does it have to be that way? We could easily change it.

I think it’s helpful to understand why we might want to change the target. Traditionally speaking, economists think there’s a trade off between inflation and unemployment. So they would think that if we have 3% inflation, in order to get 3% inflation down to 2%, we have to have a bit of a recession, we have to have the unemployment rate go up a little bit. So ultimately, whether or not we decide to have a higher inflation target is a political decision as to whether or not the government can tolerate a temporary recession.

When inflation was around 4% and it looked like it would have come down, there were actually many people, influential people, writing columns in big newspapers saying, “Hey, why don’t we just change the inflation target so that it’s 3% or maybe a little bit more, instead of 2%?” They were saying this because they did not want the political costs of having temporarily higher unemployment, of creating a recession. So whether or not we change the inflation target is ultimately going to depend upon the political appetite for economic weakness.

Honestly, at 3% inflation, I think that’s close enough to 2% that people would just kind of struggle and say, “Yeah, it’ll eventually get there,” and they won’t have to change the target. But the next economic cycle, when we have an upswing, maybe inflation goes back to 4%, maybe a little bit more. Depending on who’s in power, maybe they don’t want to take that risk of having a recession to get inflation down, and maybe at that time, we’ll have some serious conversations within the government about whether or not they could change the inflation target.

To your point about what the Fed people have been talking about now, definitely they would never say that they’re going to raise the inflation target. But at the moment, they are having a discussion about their framework and that’s due to be released in a couple years.

There are former Fed speakers who are whispering that, “Instead of having a 2% inflation target, what if we have something called an inflation band?” So what that means is that my target is not a 2% point, but maybe it’s 2% plus or minus 1%. So that means that inflation at 1.5% is within the band, it’s okay. If it’s 2.5% or even 3%, that’s okay as well.

So that could be a way to, by sleight of hand, increase the inflation target simply by tolerating inflation higher than 2% because it’s still within the band. That is something that people discussed before in the Fed and now they’re discussing again. I don’t know what they will ultimately decide. I think it might depend upon just how easy they think it is to maintain 2% in the coming years.
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Americans surprise with confidence in economy though job concerns grow

August 27, 2024
Americans are more confident in the economy than analysts expected and that confidence has been growing throughout the summer. The Conference Board released its consumer confidence survey for August, with a 103.3 rating, beating the 100.7 expected and exceeding July’s 101.9 surprise.

It’s the highest confidence rating in months, but there’s more behind the headline number.

Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson said that while consumers are more positive about business conditions now and in the future, they’re also more concerned about the labor market.

In July, unemployment rose to 4.3%. In August, fewer people told the Conference Board jobs were “plentiful” while slightly more said jobs were “hard to get.” Fewer people also expected their incomes to increase this year, while more expected their incomes to decrease.

That said, Americans’ inflation expectations dropped to their lowest level since March 2020. That comes as the Federal Reserve’s own inflation expectations are getting more rosy, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed in his Jackson Hole speech last week.

“Inflation is now much closer to our objective, with prices having risen 2.5% over the past 12 months,” Powell said. “After a pause earlier this year, progress toward our 2% objective has resumed. My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%.”

“He is confident now, not just waiting for more confidence, but confident that inflation is moving lower,” Central Bank Central Editor-in-Chief Kathleen Hays emphasized in an interview with Straight Arrow News. “It’s heading for that 2% target. And the concern is unemployment.”

Powell’s speech signaled a likely rate cut coming in September, and Americans are expecting interest rates to decline. That expectation, however, hasn’t made Americans rethink buying homes. Average responses over the past six months show plans to purchase homes are at a new 12-year low. But Americans are planning more smaller purchases. Buying plans for cars, refrigerators, TVs, washing machines, smartphones and laptops all increased.

Overall, Americans are feeling better about their family’s financial situation moving forward. They don’t see the results of the election causing much volatility in the economy and recession expectations are unchanged in August and well below 2023’s peak.

But confidence can be drawn along income lines. Those making less than $25,000 are feeling less confident overall, while those making more than $100,000 are the most optimistic.

Businesses, investors and the Federal Reserve all pay close attention to measures of consumer confidence. It’s a window into how much buying power Americans are comfortable yielding, and household spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
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Federal Reserve teased a ‘glimmer of hope’ in its comments on inflation

June 12, 2024
There’s a single, subtle change in the Federal Reserve’s latest comments on inflation. In May, the Federal Open Market Committee said there had been a “lack of further progress” toward its 2% inflation target. On Wednesday, June 12, hours after the latest inflation report became public, the committee changed the phrase to note “modest further progress.”

On Wednesday morning, May’s consumer prices came in cooler than expected. Prices were unchanged for the month and up 3.3% for the year, a tick down from April’s 3.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% on the month and 3.4% on the year.

“The economy is in kind of a steady state right now with inflation running 3%, it has been for really close to a year,” former Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig said. “So they really do have to stick to the higher-for-longer scenario in their alternatives and that’s what they’re doing.

“But they don’t want to give the impression that they’re ready to raise or that they are not going to eventually cut so that’s why they put the glimmer of hope in there by looking at the very small improvement so that you don’t spook the market,” he continued.

In the Fed’s latest economic projections, the committee forecasts just one rate cut in 2024, down from three projected cuts in March.

“This is my opinion only, but I think what they’re hoping is that they’re just modestly enough tight that the inflation numbers will come down over time without creating a recession, and they haven’t given up on,” Hoenig said.

While the consumer price index (CPI) gets the majority of attention because it’s the first inflation indicator to be released, the Fed relies on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for its 2% target.

What’s the difference between CPI and PCE and why does the Fed prefer the latter? Click here to learn more.

Based on the Fed’s projections, it expects core inflation, as measured by PCE, to remain unchanged in 2024 at 2.8%.

“Higher than they want, but they’re also projecting it’s not going to increase and they think it’ll tick down slightly over the course of the year and into next year,” Hoenig said. “And they’ll be satisfied with that. They’re willing to accept that as a trade-off for risking a recession.”
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Fed set to hike rate again as consumer confidence in economy hits 2-year high

July 25, 2023

Whatever happened to that recession? Several months ago, top economists predicted the country would be in a recession right now. Instead, consumer confidence just hit a 2-year high in July, the U.S. unemployment rate is 3.6%, and gross domestic product numbers due this week are expected to show a growing economy for the second quarter of 2023.

A large majority of surveyed business economists – 71% – now say the odds of the U.S. entering a recession in the next 12 months are 50% or less, according to the latest National Association of Business Economics survey.

Fitch Ratings was among the leading agencies predicting a recession by the second quarter of 2023. Now, updated forecasts point to a mild recession in the last quarter of the year and the first quarter of 2024.

“The bottom line is that this is a very resilient economy and the strength of the labor market has surprised everybody,” said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. Regional Economics at Fitch Ratings. “There’s a possibility that may actually continue, even though we think the labor markets would weaken from the third quarter going out through to 2024.”

Fed set to hike rate again

After pausing rate hikes in June, the overall consensus is that the Federal Reserve will again hike the federal funds target rate on Wednesday, July 26. It currently sits between 5% and 5.25%, whereas a hike will bring the borrowing rate to 5.25% to 5.5%.

“It seems like it may be one and done because inflation numbers have been surprisingly lower than expected. We’re at 3% now. Nobody actually thought we’d be at 3% this quickly,” Sonola told Straight Arrow News. “But I think the Fed will be paying a lot more attention to core inflation, which is still more than double its target.”

For that reason, Sonola said they cannot rule out another rate hike later in the year. Fitch Ratings currently predicts the Fed will start cutting rates around March 2024, with inflation at around 2.5% to 3%.

Lower headline inflation distorting true inflation picture

Despite significant declines in headline inflation numbers from the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures price index, core inflation is proving much sticker.

In the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, core prices, which exclude more volatile food and energy indexes, have barely budged all of 2023. While overall annual PCE has gone from 5.4% in January to 3.8% in May, core PCE has hardly moved, from 4.7% in January to 4.6% in May.

Sonola agreed the headline inflation figures are distorting the real picture largely because energy has been so deflationary. Gas prices are down 26.5% in the past year, according to the latest consumer price index.

Meanwhile, housing prices are fueling core inflation while strong wage growth has led to sticky service industry prices. For instance, while food-at-home prices month-to-month are barely growing in 2023, food-away-from-home prices are climbing at much stronger clips.

“Unemployment below 4% is probably still going to bring about inflationary pressures on the wage front,” Sonola said. “As perverse as this sounds, the Fed will be happy to see unemployment in the 4% range, 4% to 4.5%, just so that takes away the pressure on wages.”
Off to a rough start: Inflation climbs in early 2023 in Fed’s preferred gauge

February 24, 2023

Despite all of the economic tightening by the Federal Reserve to bring down inflation, the opposite happened in January, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was up 5.4% from a year ago, a hair higher than December’s 5.3%.

That December figure was also revised up from 5%, showing prices of goods and services rose faster in December than previously reported. Meanwhile, the monthly price for goods and services climbed 0.6% in January, the largest monthly gain since last summer.

This data follows the consumer price report — which showed inflation barely slowed in that data set — and a shockingly strong jobs report for January.

So what does this mean beyond inflation being stubbornly high? The market consensus is higher interest rates.

The Fed hiked its benchmark interest rate for the eighth time in a year earlier this month. And at a 25-basis point increase, it was the smallest hike since the Fed started its campaign in March 2022.

But minutes from the latest meeting released this week showed some committee members favored a larger 50-basis point rise in the rate.

“The participants favoring a 50-basis point increase noted that a larger increase would more quickly bring the target range close to the levels they believed would achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, taking into account their views of the risks to achieving price stability in a timely way,” the minutes read.

As it stands following February’s 25-basis point increase, the federal funds target range sits between 4.5% and 4.75%. This is the interest rate banks pay for overnight lending, but the rise and fall directly impact consumer interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee has repeatedly said they believe the rate will need to climb higher than 5% and hold there in an effort to bring down inflation.

The committee meets again in one month to revisit the interest rate, attempting to balance restrictive economic policy to curb consumer spending in hopes prices fall, and maintaining strong employment to avoid a recession.

What’s the difference between CPI and PCE and why does the Fed prefer the latter? Click here to learn more.