The United States and its allies possess enough conventional weapons and delivery systems to neutralize all of Russia and China’s nuclear launch sites within approximately two hours, according to a study by two British researchers. The study, titled “Masters of the Air: Strategic Stability and Conventional Strikes,” made the claim that sparked debate.
Matt Shoemaker is a former U.S. intelligence officer. He completed his PhD work in Nuclear War Strategy at King’s College in London. Straight Arrow News reached out to Shoemaker for some more context on the study’s assertions.
“That is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence to support it,” Shoemaker said. “This particular report does not hold up from what I can see.”
Shoemaker’s assessment is based on his experience working on the Chinese nuclear forces desk and the Russia desk.
“When I see a report claiming that the United States and its allies can eliminate Chinese and Russian nuclear capabilities within two hours using conventional weaponry, my first question is, ‘Who is making this claim?’” Shoemaker added.
The claim came from Professor Dan Plesch, who co-authored the “Masters of the Air” study.
“Back in the 1960s, as a teenager, I was extremely interested in the nuclear threat and subscribed to the International Institute for Strategic Studies journals before I went to college,” Plesch said.
Plesch was involved in the U.K.’s anti-nuclear campaign in the 1970s and 80s and founded the British American Security Information Council (BASIC) in 1985, a think tank focused on nuclear disarmament. Today, he is a professor of diplomacy and strategy at SOAS University of London, where he raises awareness about the proliferation of conventional weapons.
“Some years ago, I wrote a piece for The Conversation about a non-nuclear world war and the viability of conventional counterforce, which has had about a quarter of a million reads,” Plesch said.
Conventional counterforce is the military tactic of using conventional weapons to target an adversary’s nuclear weapons. During the Cold War, counterforce involved using nuclear weapons to stop nuclear threats.
Today, Plesch argues that the U.S. has the capability to eliminate both Russia and China’s nuclear arsenals without using its own nuclear weapons.
Plesch points to programs like Rapid Dragon, which uses cargo planes to launch pallets of cruise missiles, and the dominance of stealth aircraft as evidence of the West’s decisive advantage over its adversaries.
According to Plesch and others, this imbalance of power could fuel an arms race, with the U.S. and its allies on one side and Russia, China and their allies on the other. Plesch suggested that while the West aims to deter adversaries, China and Russia perceived the buildup of conventional weapons as a direct threat to their strategic stability, leading to a significant misunderstanding.
“If you have this level of misunderstanding and weapons development, it enhances the risk of major war, whether conventional or nuclear,” Plesch said. “Right now, arms control and disarmament are not prioritized.”
Plesch advocated for a path towards disarmament, both conventional and nuclear, and hopes his report will spark conversations on the topic.
However, Shoemaker argues that Plesch’s findings make several assumptions, such as the ease of tracking Russian nuclear submarines and the dominance of Western air power.
“If that were the case, the Cold War would have been a joke, as if we had nothing to worry about,” Shoemaker said.
Shoemaker believes that the significant investment by China and Russia in their nuclear programs indicates their importance and the lengths they will go to protect them.
“To treat this issue flippantly is concerning because it could drive adversaries to overreact and allow us to become complacent,” Shoemaker said.
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