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Data that usually warns of a recession just had its worst reading in 12 years

March 25, 2025
- The Conference Board’s Expectations Index has dropped to its lowest point in 12 years, signaling recession concerns. Consumer confidence also dropped for the fourth consecutive month.
- Fewer Americans expect income growth over the next 12 months, and more anticipate income declines.
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he went from projecting two rate cuts in 2025 to projecting one, citing “bumpy” inflation.
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If the path of the U.S. economy were dictated solely by how Americans feel about it, the U.S. would certainly be heading into a recession. In March, The Conference Board’s Expectations Index fell to its lowest level in 12 years.

At 65.2 points, The Conference Board said the measure is well below the threshold of 80, which usually signals a recession ahead. That said, American expectations have been bouncing above and below this threshold for about three years.

At the same time, consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month. Much of the fall in March came from Americans ages 55 and older, and pointed to concerns about stock market performance. In March, consumers turned negative about the stock market for the first time since 2023.

Americans are worried about jobs and income

“It takes quite a bit to surprise me, and yet they really did take me by surprise,” Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and a former Federal Reserve adviser, said of The Conference Board data. “And I think the aspect, in particular, were the views on the job market going forward, and especially the outlook that U.S. households have for their income growth in the coming 12 months.”

In March, 16.3% of Americans expected their incomes to increase, down from 18.8% in February. And 15.5% expected their income to decrease, up from 12.8% in February.

I think we’re going to see inflation be very bumpy and not move dramatically in a clear way to the 2% target.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

“Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Stephanie Guichard, The Conference Board’s senior economist of global indicators.

“When you see that number absolutely collapse, you have to say to yourself, well, now I understand why the CEOs of Walmart and Dollar Tree are talking about consumers trading down,” DiMartino Booth said. “This all makes sense. Now I see why services spending has completely flatlined, and why Americans aren’t able to splurge on discretionary goods or services going forward.”

It’s not just consumers getting pessimistic

More Americans expect higher interest rates and higher inflation over the next 12 months, but they aren’t the only ones.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic expressed a similar train of thought during an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, March 24.

“I was at two [rate cuts in 2025]. I moved to one mainly because I think we’re going to see inflation be very bumpy and not move dramatically in a clear way to the 2% target,” Bostic said. “What I’ve heard is that we really don’t know where the economy is going to go. Businesses don’t know, families don’t know and local policymakers don’t know either.”

While economic expectations tanked far below the recession threshold in March, the number of consumers anticipating a recession in the next 12 months remained steady from February at a nine-month high.

Should more targeted tariffs assuage concerns?

The stock market rose Monday on reports that the Trump administration would narrow the tariffs set to take effect on April 2, a day President Donald Trump is referring to as “Liberation Day.”

At the White House, Trump told reporters he may give “a lot of countries” breaks on reciprocal tariffs, but didn’t elaborate.

You cannot squeeze blood from a rock. You cannot force a U.S. consumer to spend more money than they have.
Danielle DiMartino Booth

“With every succeeding day we see the tariff headlines become a lot less frightening,” DiMartino Booth said. “Now they’re going to be more targeted. They’re going to roll out more slowly. It’s starting to feel and seem and look like what happened going from 2018 and 2019.”

Still, DiMartino Booth is not convinced that retailers will be able to pass higher tariff costs onto consumers even as policies take effect.

“You cannot squeeze blood from a rock. You cannot force a U.S. consumer to spend more money than they have,” she said.
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CEO confidence soars to highest level in 3 years in Trump’s first weeks

February 21, 2025
- CEO confidence hit its highest mark in three years, just weeks into President Donald Trump’s first term. CEOs broadly saw fewer risks related to regulation and the economy.
- The Conference Board said the swing upward shows CEOs moved quickly from cautious optimism to confident optimism.
- Consumers are not as confident as CEOs. In February, consumer sentiment plunged to levels not seen since November 2023.
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Confidence among chief executives shot up to levels not seen in three years during President Donald Trump’s first weeks in the White House. The Conference Board’s measure of CEO confidence went up nine points in the first quarter of 2025.

Any measure above 50 reflects more positive than negative responses. In the latest survey of 134 CEOs, taken between Jan. 27 and Feb. 10, the measure of confidence was at 60, the first time it’s been well above 50 since early 2022.

The Conference Board said the swing upward shows CEOs are shifting from cautious optimism seen throughout 2024 to confident optimism in 2025.

“The improvement in CEO confidence in the first quarter of 2025 was significant and broad-based,” The Conference Board Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard said. “All components of the measure improved, as CEOs were substantially more optimistic about current economic conditions as well as about future economic conditions – both overall and in their own industries.”

By the numbers

More CEOs say economic conditions are better than they were six months ago.
- 44% of CEOs said economic conditions have improved, up from 20% last quarter.
- 11% said economic conditions are worse, down from 30% last quarter.
More CEOs have a positive outlook on future economic conditions over the next six months.
- 56% of CEOs expect economic conditions to improve, up from 33% last quarter.
- 15% expect conditions to worsen, down from 23%.
What led to the surge in confidence?

The Conference Board said the first quarter’s surge in CEO confidence comes as CEO concerns about business risks ease. Compared to late last year, fewer CEOs ranked cyber threats, regulatory uncertainty, financial and economic risks, and supply chain disruptions as high-impact risks.

In a Jan. 31 executive order titled, “Unleashing Prosperity Through Deregulation,” Trump ordered agencies to identify 10 regulations that could be eliminated for every new regulation they propose.

The White House said Trump will “halt the job-killing and inflation-driving regulatory blitz of the Biden Administration.”

While the Conference Board saw widespread easing of risk concerns, they pointed out one exception. With geopolitical instability, 55% of CEOs saw it as a high-impact risk to their industry in early 2025, up from 52% in the final quarter of 2024.

Consumers aren’t as confident as CEOs

Consumer sentiment plunged in February just as the outlook from CEOs turned more positive. In the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index released Friday, Feb. 21, consumer sentiment slid nearly 10% from January.

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said the slide was unanimous across age, income and wealth groups. She said it was led by a 19% plunge in buying conditions, “in large part due to fears that tariff-induced price increases are imminent.”

However, the data showed a significant divide among political parties. The drop in consumer sentiment was exclusively driven by Democrats and Independents. From January to February, the index measuring Republicans remained unchanged.

It’s the lowest consumer sentiment reading since November 2023. Inflation expectations among consumers for the year ahead jumped from 3.3% last month to 4.3% in February, also the highest expectation since November 2023.

In January, the consumer price index showed inflation rose 3% over the year. However, the monthly price increase was 0.5%, the highest monthly inflation reading since August 2023.

Annual consumer price inflation has risen four months in a row since bottoming out at 2.4% in September 2024.
Walgreens CEO says locking up popular items hurts more than it helps

January 15, 2025
Walgreens CEO Tim Wentworth said the company’s added security efforts to prevent theft, such as locking up popular items behind glass doors, have backfired over the years. Wentworth’s acknowledgment came during the company’s first-quarter earnings call with investors on Tuesday, Jan. 14.

“It is a hand-to-hand combat battle still, unfortunately,” Wentworth said. “But it does impact how sales work because when you lock things up, for example, you don’t sell as many of them. We’ve kind of proven that conclusively.”

After reporting a more than 50% increase in “shrink” — otherwise known as lost inventory — in 2020 and 2021, the company invested in added security, including security guards in some stores.

Now, Wentworth said that Walgreens is renewing its focus on customer experience while balancing it with anti-theft efforts.

Wentworth did not go into details about the new anti-theft efforts or if it will mean an end to popular items being locked up.

Wentworth only said the drugstore chain is taking “creative” steps to address retail theft and improve customer experience.

Despite the challenges with the anti-theft policy, the pharmacy giant outperformed first-quarter earnings expectations.

Wentworth attributed the better-than-expected numbers to a revamped focus on customers’ needs and expanding offerings of health and wellness products.

The company said the strategic closures of some stores also helped with improved performance.

Wentworth also revealed Walgreens plans to close around 450 additional underperforming stores in 2025 and further improve its line of health and wellness products.

The company reportedly operates more than 8,000 stores in the United States and Puerto Rico.
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Republicans feel good about the economy now that Trump has won

November 22, 2024
For the first time in four years, Republicans are feeling good about the economy. Economically speaking, only one thing has changed.

There’s a distinct difference in reports of consumer confidence along political lines since President-elect Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidential election.

The latest consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan out Friday, Nov. 22, shows Republicans are feeling pretty peachy about economic expectations moving forward while sentiments from Democrats took a dive. It’s a mirror image of what happened after the 2020 election when President Joe Biden beat out President Donald Trump.

The latest data point confirms other sentiment surveys since Trump was declared the winner on Nov. 6.

In a Morning Consult survey, which shows five-day moving averages, there’s been an immediate shift in political lines since Trump won. As soon as Trump won, Republicans moved from negative into positive territory regarding the economy. However, Democrats slid from more positive to closer to the negative threshold.

Consumer sentiment has historically been a key indicator of the health of the economy. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the country’s economic growth, and people spend money when they’re feeling good about economic conditions, so businesses look at consumer sentiment to see how fast the wheels are turning.

In recent years, though, this measure has gotten increasingly political, as this election shows. That may make it a less reliable look at true economic conditions.

Overall, consumer sentiment measured by the University of Michigan is up slightly in November and up 17% over the past year, but sentiment is still far from its pre-pandemic levels. Expectations for the economy are up more than 35% in the past year, likely driven at least in part by lowering inflation.
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