IMF warns against tariffs: They make the country’s residents ‘poor’
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave its latest forecast on the world economy on Tuesday, Oct. 22. During the meeting, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned trade restrictions could put downward pressure on that growth.
The global financial agency declined to comment on certain elections of proposals by presidential candidates. Excluding 2024 election promises, the IMF says its seen a tripling in trade-distorting measures from the U.S., China and EU from 2019 to now.
“When we look at the impact that rising trade tensions could have, there are two dimensions of this,” Gourinchas explained. “One is, of course, increasing tariffs between different blocs, that will disrupt trade, that will misallocate resources, that will weigh down on economic activity. But there is also an associated layer that comes from the uncertainty that increases related to future trade policy, and it will also depress investment, depress economic activity and consumption.
“And when we put these two together, we find an impact on world output that is of the order of about 0.5% of output levels in 2026. So it’s a quite sizable effect of both an increase in tariffs between different countries and an increase in trade policy uncertainty,” he continued.
He said it’s not just something that ultimately harms the global economy.
“They’re also hurtful for the countries that implement them as well because the impact on global trade also makes the residents of the country poor,” Gourinchas said.
It’s not a new view for economists worldwide. The nonpartisan Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates former President Donald Trump’s higher-end tariff proposals would cost the typical U.S. household $2,600 a year. However, it’s a finding the Republican candidate rejects.
“The higher the tariff, the more likely it is that the company will come into the United States and build a factory in the United States so it doesn’t have to pay the tariff,” Trump said.
In the latest AP-NORC poll, voters said they trust Trump more than Vice President Kamala Harris when it comes to tariff policies. As for whom voters trust more with the economy, Trump holds a slight edge at 43% compared to Harris at 41%.
When it comes to the current state of the U.S. economy, only 38% say it is somewhat or very good. The results are drastically different depending on the voter’s political party, with 13% of Republicans calling it good compared to 61% of Democrats.
Despite the vibes inside the country, the IMF rates the U.S. economy as “very good.”
“There is strong productivity growth that we see when we look at the U.S. that’s somewhat unlike other advanced economies, in fact, when we look around the world,” Gourinchas said.
The IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow at a 2.8% rate in 2024, compared to 1.8% among advanced economies as a whole.
India’s Modi tells Putin to end war in Ukraine peacefully and ‘quickly’
As Russia hosts 22 international leaders who represent 45% of the world’s population for a global finance summit, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is using the opportunity to call for an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, Oct. 22, he wanted the war to end peacefully and “quickly” as the two met at the annual BRICS Summit.
Additionally, Modi revealed that he was in “constant touch” with Putin over the war in Ukraine. New Delhi is towing a fine line with the warring factions, as it’s promised humanitarian support to Kyiv while failing to openly condemn Russia’s invasion.
Modi visited Moscow in July and Kyiv in August, attempting to spur peace talks between the countries. Complicating India’s position even more is the fact India and China are the two largest purchasers of Russian oil in the world.
When questioned by reporters at the summit, Putin maintained that Moscow would not give away the four regions of eastern Ukraine it currently holds. The Kremlin leader says those areas are now part of Russia and wants Moscow’s long-term security interests considered by Europe.
Meanwhile, Russian sources acknowledged there were increasing talks in Moscow of a possible cease-fire agreement. However, nothing is set in stone as they wait for the results of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5.
Putin claimed the West now realizes Russia will win the war in Ukraine but is open to discussion on draft cease-fire agreements reached in Turkey in 2022.
Scientists fear the world’s largest wind turbine will change the weather
China recently switched on the world’s largest wind turbine, a giant offshore structure installed in August that stands nearly 800 feet tall and has the capacity to power 96,000 homes each year. However, its immense scale has sparked concerns about potential environmental consequences.
Scientists are studying the turbine’s impact on local wind patterns, as renewable power infrastructure like this can alter airflows and elevate ground temperatures.
While the phenomenon is not new and has been documented elsewhere in the past, experts worry that the unprecedented size of China’s turbine could intensify these effects.
In addition to making the area surrounding it warmer, China’s massive turbine might influence regional precipitation cycles and weather patterns. Researchers are also exploring the possibility that this structure could disrupt ecosystems, with potential consequences for marine wildlife and bird migration.
As these studies continue, the findings may inform future wind energy projects, especially those involving similarly large-scale turbines.
Researchers with the Global Commission on the Economics of Water found more than half the world’s food production will be at risk of failure by 2049 unless urgent action is taken now to conserve water sources. According to the report, demand for fresh water will exceed supply by 40% by the end of 2029 because the world’s water systems are being put under “unprecedented stress.”
The commission said governments and experts have vastly underestimated the amount of water needed for people to have decent lives. Researchers said while between 13 and 26 gallons of water are needed per day for each person’s health and hygiene, people actually require a little more than 1,000 gallons a day to have adequate nutrition.
Researchers said for most parts of the world, that volume cannot be achieved locally, meaning people are dependent on trade to meet their needs. The report calls out northwestern India, northeastern China and eastern and southern Europe, specifically. It said nearly 3 billion people are living in areas experiencing unstable water trends and several cities sinking because of the loss of below-ground water.
Researchers emphasized the immediate need for making certain changes, like decreasing food waste, rehabilitating wetlands, establishing sustainable water use goals for companies and accurately determining the cost of water.
DHS says it just deported a charter plane full of Chinese immigrants
The Biden administration announced it deported a chartered plane full of Chinese nationals back to the People’s Republic of China. In a press release, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement “conducted its second charter removal flight to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) of Chinese nationals this year.”
The first removal of Chinese nationals was conducted in June this year in what DHS called “the first large charter removal flight since 2018.” In that same month, DHS said it was working with China to reduce irregular migration “and to disrupt illicit human smuggling through expanded law enforcement efforts.”
In 2023, U.S. border officials apprehended over 37,000 Chinese nationals at the southern border, a tenfold increase compared to the previous year, The Associated Press reported in July.
In fiscal year 2024, almost 56,000 Chinese migrants were encountered at U.S. borders with Canada and Mexico between ports of entry, the government reported.
“Intending migrants should not believe the lies of smugglers—Chinese nationals without a legal basis to remain in the United States are subject to swift removal,” Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas said in a statement.
DHS said it will continue to enforce U.S. immigration laws and pursue tough consequences for those who unlawfully enter the country.
It’s unclear how many Chinese nationals were on the chartered flight. In June, 116 Chinese nationals were removed from the country.
Chinese aquarium accused of misleading visitors with robotic whale shark display
Xiaomeisha Ocean World in China is under scrutiny after it was revealed that the whale shark featured in its exhibits is actually a robotic model, not a live animal. The revelation has sparked a wave of negative reviews from visitors who felt deceived by the aquarium’s advertising, with some demanding refunds after learning that the whale shark was not real.
The aquarium defended its choice, explaining that it invested millions of yuan in the development of the robotic whale shark to comply with wildlife protection laws that restrict the trade and capture of real whale sharks, the world’s largest fish species. Only around 20 whale sharks are kept in captivity worldwide, making them a rare sight in aquariums.
Xiaomeisha Ocean World said in a statement that its robotic whale shark exhibit aimed to “inspire everyone to understand the animals and their environment” and “with the aim of protecting the ecological environment.”
This incident follows another Chinese wildlife display accused of misleading tourists. Earlier this year, the Taizhou Zoo sparked a viral controversy when it was revealed staff had dyed a pair of chow chow dogs black and white to look like pandas.
Why deportations are an ‘economic disaster’ and other immigration truths
There are likely more than 11 million immigrants living in the U.S. today without authorization. On the campaign trail, former President Donald Trump has promised to enact “mass deportations” to remove unauthorized immigrants. Trump said he would use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which has not been used since internment camps during World War II.
The American Immigration Council, an advocacy group in favor of expanding immigration, estimates that a single mass deportation operation would cost at least $315 billion, a “highly conservative estimate.” A longer-term operation would cost nearly $1 trillion over a decade.
“But actually, the direct costs of implementing the deportation aren’t even the worst,” said Zeke Hernandez, Wharton School professor and author of “The Truth About Immigration: Why Successful Societies Welcome Newcomers.” “Think of it this way: All of a sudden, businesses have about 11 to 12 million fewer consumers. Is that what we want? Businesses have 11 to 12 million fewer workers to fill critical jobs in key areas; areas that are essential for our economy, like construction.”
“It really would be an economic disaster,” Hernandez said. “And not only do we have to speculate about that, we actually have many historical precedents where we have done exactly that.”
All of a sudden, businesses have about 11 to 12 million fewer consumers. Is that what we want?
Zeke Hernandez, author, “The Truth About Immigration”
The last official count of 11 million unauthorized immigrants in 2022 included 4 million Mexicans; roughly 4 million more from the Caribbean and Central and South America; 1.7 million from Asia; and 1.3 million from Europe, Canada, the Middle East, Africa and Oceania. The Census numbers have not been updated to reflect ongoing migration at the U.S.-Mexico border since 2022.
Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt says a majority of Americans “want mass deportations of illegal immigrants and trust President Trump most on this issue.”
In a recent Gallup poll that has tracked Americans’ immigration preferences since 1965, 55% of respondents said they preferred immigration levels be decreased, compared to 16% who said they should be increased and 25% who said they should stay the same. It’s the highest amount of Americans reporting a desire to decrease immigration levels since the month following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.
Hernandez said the shifting attitude is understandable given the negative immigration rhetoric from politicians and the media.
It’s not just that you have a few bad apples coming in, it’s that our system for bringing in apples is completely screwed up.
Zeke Hernandez, author, “The Truth About Immigration
“One of the big surprises of the last year or so is that both the Right and the Left have now taken a fairly aggressive message about the border and about how the influx of immigrants is really doing us damage,” he told Straight Arrow News.
Hernandez cited Democratic mayors who used to be pro-immigration, now taking a stance on limiting immigration. Many of those mayors are facing budget constraints from an unexpected influx of migrants. While these arrivals cause short-term pain points, Hernandez argues that long-term economic benefits are around the corner.
“Immigrants contribute five big economic benefits to every country and community they arrive to,” he said. “And those would be, one, investment, two, innovation, three, talent, four, consumption, and five, taxes. And those are the inputs to any prosperous economy.”
That’s not to say America’s immigration system isn’t in need of a major overhaul.
“It’s not just that you have a few bad apples coming in, it’s that our system for bringing in apples is completely screwed up,” Hernandez said.
In an extended interview with SAN, Hernandez draws on 20 years of research to give fact-based explanations on the impacts of legal versus unauthorized immigration, skilled versus low-skilled migrants, immigration storylines of villain versus victim and why both are wrong, and the changes he would apply to the U.S. immigration system. You can watch the entire conversation in the video above.
2 giant pandas from China on the way to Washington
Eleven months after the National Zoo in Washington, D.C. Said goodbye to its giant pandas, two new ones are on their way. The pair of giant pandas have officially left a research facility in China and are set to be flown to D.C., according to Chinese officials.
It’s not yet clear when they’ll arrive. The zoo’s website still says new pandas will be coming by the end of the year, however, on Monday, Oct. 14, the Zoo did announce it will be closed Tuesday, Oct. 15, for “the safety of the pandas and staff.”
Harris, Trump turn to PA with 3 weeks to go until Election Day
With exactly three weeks until Election Day, both candidates have their sights set on Pennsylvania. And NASA has launched its ambitious plan to visit the largest planet in our solar system in hopes of making a new discovery. These stories and more highlight your Unbiased Updates for Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024.
Harris, Trump turn to PA with 3 weeks to go until Election Day
With just three weeks until Election Day, the 2024 presidential candidates are focusing on the key battleground states — and none may be as important as Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes. Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump took their message once again to the Keystone State on Monday, Oct. 14, each believing that if they win Pennsylvania, they will win the election.
Harris held a rally in the northwestern city of Erie, where Trump visited a few weeks ago. The vice president painted her opponent as a threat to American democracy, warning her supporters of what she calls the dangers of another Trump presidency.
“I believe so strongly that a second Trump term would be a huge risk for America and dangerous,” she said. “Donald Trump is increasingly unstable and unhinged, and he is out for unchecked power. That’s what he’s looking for.”
Harris also urged Pennsylvanians to get out to vote early as mail-in voting is now underway in the state.
Also Monday, former President Trump spoke during a town hall in Oaks, Pennsylvania, a suburb of Philadelphia. He touched on claims he’s a threat to democracy.
“When they talk about a threat to democracy, how about where they take a candidate who won fair and square, they throw them out and they put up a woman who failed, was the first one to drop out of a field of 22 and got no votes?” he said. “And this is the person we’re running against. And she is not a smart woman. That’s true. And we cannot — we’ve had that for four years. We’re not going to have it for another four years.”
Trump cut his town hall short after two attendees required medical attention, with both the former president and moderator South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem commenting on the heat in the venue. Trump then requested music be played for the remainder of the event.
Trump will be back in Georgia on Tuesday as the focus on the battleground states intensifies.
Along with rallies, the candidates are continuing their media tour to reach voters. The vice president will take part in a town hall Tuesday, Oct. 15, hosted by the radio program “The Breakfast Club” and then she will appear on Fox News on Wednesday, Oct. 16.
The group of pro-Palestinian demonstrators staged a sit-in demanding an end to U.S. support for Israel’s war against Hamas. While none of the protesters got into the stock exchange, dozens did cross the security fence put in place by police.
A New York Police Department spokesperson said officers arrested 206 people.
Since the war in Gaza started just over a year ago, more than 42,000 Palestinians have been killed and almost the entire population has been displaced, according to Gaza health officials.
North Carolina man arrested for allegedly threatening FEMA workers
Investigators in North Carolina arrested and charged a man with threatening to harm FEMA workers who were helping parts of the state devastated by Hurricane Helene.
According to the Rutherford County Sheriff’s Office, William Parsons, 44, is charged with “going armed to the terror of the public” — a misdemeanor.
In a statement, the sheriff said while initial reports indicated there was a group of armed militia members threatening FEMA workers, they found Parsons acted alone. Officials said he did have a handgun and a rifle in his possession when arrested.
The arrest followed misinformation and disinformation being spread about FEMA in the wake of the natural disaster and caused FEMA to change the way it was working to help people impacted by Helene because of concerns over workers’ safety.
NASA launches mission to find signs of life on Jupiter moon
The mission, dubbed Europa Clipper, started its long journey to Jupiter’s fourth largest moon on Monday. It’s expected to enter the planet’s orbit in 2030 after a flight of 1.8 billion miles.
Pair of giant pandas set to arrive at the National Zoo
Eleven months after the National Zoo in Washington, D.C. Said goodbye to its giant pandas, two new ones are on their way. The pair of giant pandas have officially left a research facility in China and are set to be flown to D.C., according to Chinese officials.
It’s not yet clear when they’ll arrive. The zoo’s website still says new pandas will be coming by the end of the year, however, on Monday, the Zoo did announce it will be closed Tuesday for the safety of the pandas and staff.
The return of panda diplomacy between China and the U.S. has already seen a pair delivered to the San Diego Zoo with another promised to San Francisco.
2,471-pound pumpkin wins world championship
A 2,471-pound pumpkin won the 51st World Championship Pumpkin Weigh-off Monday in Half Moon Bay, California, south of San Francisco, defeating its closest competitor by six pounds.
Drone swarms over key military sites spark fears of foreign surveillance
For over 17 days, unidentified drones reportedly breached restricted airspace over Langley Air Force Base in Virginia, raising alarms among military and national security officials. Some of the drones, estimated to be as large as 20 feet and flying at speeds of more than 100 mph, were spotted near sensitive installations. They include Naval Station Norfolk, home to SEAL Team Six and the world’s largest naval port.
Air Force Gen. Mark Kelly and other senior officials personally observed the drones as they flew near these critical facilities. Military officials remain uncertain about the drones’ origin, though speculation suggests they may be part of a foreign operation, potentially linked to Russia or China, aimed at testing U.S. defenses.
Despite deploying fighter jets and advanced surveillance systems, the drones disappeared each night without leaving a trace. Federal law prevents the military from shooting down drones unless they pose an immediate threat, further complicating the response.
The drone incursions were serious enough to reach President Biden, prompting two weeks of high-level White House meetings that involved the Department of Defense, FBI, and other national security agencies. The incidents were not isolated — two months earlier, drones were spotted flying over a nuclear weapons testing site in Nevada, though officials remain unsure who was responsible for that breach as well.
In a separate incident, a Chinese national was arrested in January for flying a drone near a naval shipyard in Newport News, Virginia, where nuclear submarines are built. While no link has been made to the Langley drone swarms, this arrest underscores growing concerns about drones being used near sensitive U.S. sites.
National security experts warn that these incidents highlight a growing threat as drone technology becomes more advanced. Investigations into the Langley drone swarm are ongoing, but the identity and intent of those operating the drones remains unknown.
