Fewer than six months before the crucial midterm elections, it’s still not entirely certain which party is going to come out as the victor after the votes are tallied on Nov. 8, 2022. The Republican Party is seen by many as the favorite, given that historically, the president’s party almost always loses the midterms. Add to that President Joe Biden’s sinking approval rating, and you can see why the smart money is probably on the GOP. But the polling up to now makes it hard to issue any reliable prediction about what voters will do in November.

The most remarkable thing about the polls is how stable they’ve been. Things really haven’t budged since last November. The president is running in a fairly consistent margin – 41% approve, 53% disapprove. And that difference has been roughly within one point ever since November.

The so-called generic ballot, which ask prospective voters which party they’re going to vote for in the House in the upcoming November elections has also been remarkably stable. Democrats have been at 42%, plus or minus one point. Republicans have been at 45%, plus or minus two and a half points.

The latest forecasts indicate Republicans could gain two dozen seats in the House, which would give them the majority and allow the GOP to impede any Democratic plans.

When it’s all said and done, the midterms may come down to undecided voters.

Being disappointed or disapproving of President Biden doesn’t necessarily guarantee people are going to vote Republican in November. If you just look at the numbers I just cited, Republicans are running eight points behind the disapproval level. 53% disapprove of Biden, but only 45% say they’re going to vote Republican as a result. On the other hand, the number of Democrats…people who say they’re gonna vote for the Democrats is almost identical to Biden’s approval level: 42 and 41%. That implies a number of things. 

First of all, the Democrat vote has probably bottomed out. If things stay as they are, Republicans will probably win but it’s gonna depend on those 8% who disapprove of Biden, but have yet to decide they’re going to vote Republican. The odds are many of them will. The odds are that perhaps many of them will stay home.

In other words, it’s simply too early to tell.