All right, it is now, once again, the Trump era, and one of the things that I’ve been explaining on my show is that even though I’m a progressive leftist, I want Trump to succeed. Now, what do I mean by that? It’s not that I want Trump personally to succeed. I don’t really care about Trump as an individual, but what I mean is that if the country does better, even if it’s under Trump, it’s better for my fellow Americans, and I do care about that. I’m not interested in making it more likely that Trump fails just to score political points, because it will be a disaster economically and in so many other ways for my fellow Americans, I don’t want that. And so on the one hand, I am not cheering Trump to fail. On the other hand, I do think it’s important that we keep Trump accountable if he does worsen circumstances in the United States. And so along these lines, I think it’s important to draw sort of a line in the sand and go over where the most important economic indicators were when Joe Biden left office and Donald Trump came in, so that in a quarter, in six months, in a year, at the end of Donald Trump’s presidency, we can say, did he improve things for Americans, or did he not I’ll give you some examples. Joe Biden left office with an unemployment rate of 4.1%

and so we will start tracking it on a monthly basis, and over the months and years, does unemployment go up or go down from 4.1%

Why am I skeptical that Donald Trump is going to do much better than Joe Biden did on this unemployment rate. Well, because 4.1%

is close to what’s considered full employment in the United States. Yes, we see 3.9 3.8 sometimes we saw it under Biden, but the unemployment rate rarely goes much lower. So in a sense, the best Trump can really hope to do is to keep the unemployment rate where it was under Biden. And that means that if Trump says, look at a low unemployment is we say, well, it was just as low under Biden. I guess things weren’t so bad, or the unemployment rate might go up. I’ll give you another example. The unemployed the inflation rate for 2024 was 2.9% now Donald Trump has said we’re going to bring down prices. The truth is that bringing down prices in absolute terms is extraordinarily difficult and usually is bad for the economy, as we’ve spoken about before, economic growth comes from the two to 3% ideal inflation rate that the country has had in its most prosperous times. If we see egg prices go down to $1 gas down to 150 energy down 50% the way Trump has promised, that is deflation, and it can cause a deflationary spiral. It leads to layoffs, it reduces growth. It’s bad for the economy. Why am I skeptical that Trump will get inflation down? Because at 2.9%

inflation already is where economists say is an ideal spot, GDP growth, we’re waiting on the final 2024, numbers, but q3 GDP growth was right around 3% q2 GDP growth last year was right around 3% can trump do better? Well, we will see. It would be an interesting thing to see the country go grow faster than 3% annualized that’s generally considered for an economy as mature and developed as the American economy, 3% annual growth is considered pretty good. So can trump improve on it? We will see interest rates. Interest rates are something that Donald Trump has said he’s going to bring down to make homes more affordable. Right now, the average interest rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage is just over 7% there is no doubt that homeowners, or potential homeowners, better said, can afford more home when the interest rate, rather than seven on a 30 year fixed is 6% or 5% or 4% or 2.875 as it was just some years ago. Can Trump bring that interest rate down? We will see it’s not really in the purview of presidents. That’s another issue. And then finally, where will deficit go? Where will debt go? Stock market performance. Biden, each of the last two years saw S and p5 100 performance of up 22%

these are very solid numbers for Joe Biden and Trump ran on it’s a disastrous Biden economy, and I’m going to do way better. I hope Trump does succeed. I really do. But if in three months, if in six months, if in a year, the unemployment rate is up, inflation is up, the stock market isn’t performing well, the deficit is up even more, we have a responsibility.

To say, here’s what Trump promised. He failed to do it either way, we’re going to hold him accountable. I hope he does well. It’s his economy. Now you.