With the U.S. general election only six months away, leading candidates President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump appear to be engaged in a very close contest. In their 2020 race, the winner of the Electoral College was ultimately determined by a relative handful of voters in just a few swing states, even though Biden decisively won the nationwide popular vote by around 7,000,000. Polling data indicates that Americans may be in for a similarly close battle in the 2024 Biden v. Trump rematch.

Straight Arrow News contributor Larry Lindsey looks at the data, singles out the swing states that will matter the most and predicts a Trump win this November based on the current polling numbers.

The Trump-Biden race at the top of the ticket is a virtual tie. Trump is slightly ahead, he’s ahead by about one point in a head-to-head matchup. And he’s ahead by closer to two points when the other three candidates, including [Robert F.] Kennedy and Cornel West and the green candidate, are put in the race.

Although the top of the ticket seems to be a virtual tie, we don’t elect our presidents by a popular vote on a nationwide basis. Instead, each state elects electors, and those electors vote. Now, some people say that’s not democratic, the majority should rule regardless what [sic] constitutional convention saw things a little bit differently. They wanted to limit the power of any one state, and in particular, having the voters in any one state or one party state simply pile up a huge majority in that state, which would overwhelm the views of people in other states. And so they decided to have the election on a state-by- state basis.

In modern times, what that does is force both parties to campaign toward the center, because the states that are swing are generally more moderate states with two-party presses and two-party views of things. So you’re competing for swing voters this way. Right now, there are seven states that are generally considered swing states…