California has undertaken the nation’s first and only state-level exploration of reparations for Black Americans to examine the effects of slavery and systemic racism. By July 1, a task force must finish the report and recommend to lawmakers how the state should repair any damage to Black Californians due to discriminatory policies.

But Straight Arrow News contributor Ruben Navarrette argues that figuring out who should get what is “confusing,” and the numbers being talked about are so high that the reparations proposal will only end up hurting Democrats in 2024.

This task force is focused on specific areas of alleged harm: property seized by the state government, devaluation of Black businesses, housing discrimination, homelessness, health issues, mass incarceration, and “over-policing.” This will get confusing and maddening in a hurry.

For instance, if Black-owned businesses in California have in fact been devalued by state action, aren’t African Americans who own businesses owed greater compensation than individuals who don’t own a business? And if the grievance is homelessness, then shouldn’t any economic benefit go directly to Black homeless people in California, as opposed to African American millionaires who own McMansions? Lastly, how does a community measure “over-policing” that puts residents in danger when that same community has complained before about what it perceives to be “under-policing” that, wait, puts residents in danger?

Well, then there are the actual figures, some of which are — to borrow a phrase from Governor Sanders — “stone cold crazy.” Apart from the state legislature, San Francisco has its own plan to pay reparations to the city’s Black residents. Only about 5% of the population of San Francisco is Black. A draft plan from San Francisco’s reparation committee includes a proposed one-time lump sum payment of $5 million to each eligible individual. The draft argues that a “lump sum payment would compensate the affected population for the decades of harm that they experienced.” The figures bandied about by the state reparations committee seem paltry by comparison — only about $200,000 per resident — and about 6% of California’s population is Black.

Look, I’m not saying that African Americans in California don’t deserve compensation. In those cases where, for instance, a parcel of land was stolen from a family by the state through eminent domain, and then that parcel of land turned a profit for decades, and all the money went to state coffers — that’s not right. And California should make it right. But if the focus of reparations is too wide, the figures too high, and the grievance is too broad, you can expect Californians to push back by voting out Democrats and voting in Republicans.

This state could be hit by a red wave in the presidential election of 2024 — and the governor’s race in 2026 — all because of reparations. When this all shakes out, some Black Californians may get a reparations check — good for them — but the rest of the state will wind up paying the price — and for decades to come.