The killing of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri in Afghanistan marked a major win for the U.S. But as we approach the first anniversary of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, nearly 70,000 our our Afghan allies remain trapped. President Biden’s pledge to help U.S. allies in Afghanistan has gone unfulfilled. Straight Arrow News contributor Katherine Zimmerman says the U.S. must make things right, and Biden must honor his pledge to help U.S. allies.
Accelerating the adjudication of our Afghan allies’ cases is a step forward but more needs to be done. Too stringent application of U.S. laws regarding support for terrorism, a complicated, cumbersome visa application, and slow processing has stranded those who helped U.S. soldiers and diplomats.
Meanwhile, the terrorism threat from Afghanistan is trending the wrong way. Counterterrorism pressure has lifted. The Islamic State has strengthened and expanded its attack range to neighboring Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. It leads an insurgency against the Taliban and actively recruits from marginalized Afghan groups. Al- Qaeda remains close to the Taliban and enjoys relaxed pressure to communicate more freely with followers, and begins to train new recruits. The Taliban’s minimal restrictions on Al-Qaeda are expected to loosen further over time.
The “over-the-horizon” approach briefs well—the United States has exquisite targeting capabilities—but remains hollow upon closer examination. Everywhere else in the world where the United States is conducting counterterrorism operations, the U.S. military works directly with partners on the ground and can use nearby drone bases to sustain pressure on Al-Qaeda and Islamic State networks. In and around Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, America’s lack of local support and infrastructure forestalls effective counterterrorism.
Any counterterrorism operation requires good intelligence. Discussions of the current U.S. intelligence picture have rightfully remained behind closed doors. But the local intelligence networks that illuminated threats for the United States have disintegrated, and satellite pictures and technology can only go so far. Potential counterterrorism partners in neighboring states may have parts of the picture, but those relationships—if they exist—are still forming.
Counterterrorism operations also require access. Afghanistan’s distance from U.S. military bases is a problem. Geopolitical realities—namely strong Russian influence—almost certainly preclude basing in Central Asian states. Currently, the United States relies on Pakistan to allow overflight of drones flown from the Gulf.
U.S. officials are actively courting partners in the region, but any such relationship will take time to develop, time the terrorists will also make good use of. We should commemorate the one-year anniversary of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan by remembering the sacrifices of Americans, Afghans, and other allies, but also by ensuring that their sacrifice has not been in vain. One such way is for the President to deliver on the promise he made a year ago: Secure protection for our Afghan partners and keep Americans safe.