Global oil demand will peak by 2029 and begin to contract the following year while the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries add to supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, June 12. This would result in a major surplus this decade.

Global demand is predicted to stabilize at 106 million barrels per day by the end of this decade, with a potential surplus of eight million bpd.

Oil production capacity is expected to increase notably, particularly in the United States and the Americas, resulting in the forecasted surplus, only seen during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns.