On Sept. 19, during his address to the House Armed Services Committee, Major General Joseph McGee explained why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely fail. Some experts propose that China might consider using such a conflict as a distraction from its ongoing economic and political difficulties.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan highlights critical reasons why an invasion by China seems unlikely but refrains from entirely dismissing the possibility.

Excerpted from Peter’s Sept. 26 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

China invading Taiwan isn’t a new topic, but would China ever use this war as a diversion or distraction? This is an unlikely scenario, but as long as Xi is in charge, we must consider every possibility.

Despite challenges to China’s political and economic system, with a leader like Xi, there isn’t a need to “rally support” for a war. In addition, capturing Taiwan wouldn’t provide China with a strategic advantage, and it would likely lead to hefty economic vulnerabilities.

The odds of a “diversionary” war happening are never zero, though. In a system like China, all it would take is a miscalculation on Xi Jinping’s part or some dark realizations setting in…