On Monday, May 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov. It was a surprising move to some observers, as Putin had previously refused to oust Shoigu from that position even after the Wagner Group rebelled against Shoigu specifically. Others, like Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan, predicted this move ahead of time.

Watch the video above for Zeihan’s analysis just hours before the replacement was confirmed by Russian officials.

The following is an excerpt from Peter’s May 14 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

Well, I hate to say it, but Putin might actually be making a solid strategic move by removing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu from office.

Like most things in Russia, getting a seat at the table is all about who you know; that’s exactly what happened with Putin’s ole buddy Shoigu. Since he became defense minister, he’s been widely criticized as a significant hindrance to Russia’s success in the Ukraine war — you know, mostly because he didn’t have any military experience and was shelling out defense budget to his cronies.

It appears that removing Shoigu from office is part of a broader trend of Russia becoming a more conventional power, so maybe they’ll even learn their lesson and put someone with experience in office.