What can or will France do about its investment in Niger now that that country’s president was overthrown by members of his presidential guard? France has had troops in the area for years to help fight armed opposition groups, but now many local Nigerians are saying they want the former colonial ruler to stop intervening.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan explains why Russia could play a role in what France decides to do next.

Excerpted from Peter’s July 31 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

The French have found themselves caught between a rock and a hard place, and a coup in Niger happens to be the catalyst for this predicament. To be clear, we’re only talking about Niger because of what it means for the French.

We all know the storied past of the British and French colonies, and a keen history buff would know France set up shop in the Sahel and West Africa. Well, this coup in Niger could mark the end for the French in this region.

There are a couple of options on the table. France could make the political decision to go in and kick out Wagner (who is a major foreign backer), which would be a roundabout way of attacking Russia. Or the French could pack up and march back to Europe, where they would also have to duke it out with the Russians, given the EU’s stance on the Ukraine War.

The French have long had their hands in many different pots, made easier by their geographic degree of separation from any rivals. However, it appears that the French will be making moves against Russia regardless of how they handle the situation in Niger…and that’s what makes this coup so important.