The Russian navy has suffered a string of setbacks recently. The Ukrainians have begun striking targets in Crimea, which formerly served as Russia’s control hub over the Black Sea. Meanwhile, Sweden and Finland together control most of the Baltic Sea, and both of those nations filed to join NATO following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia also lacks the crucial ability to connect and transport its naval assets the way the United States can via the Panama Canal.
Between these and other developments, Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan concludes that Russia “has ceased to be a naval power at all.” Zeihan contends that Russian naval power, never the strongest historically, may now be sinking toward yet another historic low.
The following is an excerpt from Peter Zeihan’s Nov. 13 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
Naval challenges are nothing new for the former Soviets, but the Ukraine War has introduced some added stressors in the Black Sea. Russia’s inability to unify its naval presence across the four major seas in the region is a bad sign for Putin.
Russia’s vast swath of territory makes it a logistical nightmare to float a navy. Between the conflict in the Black Sea and the strategic loss of the Baltic Sea with Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Russia’s logistical nightmare is only getting worse.
With Russia’s economy highly dependent upon maritime shipments, finding a solution should be a top priority; however, any naval projects diverting resources away from the Black Sea could be devastating.
No matter what move the Russians make, limiting maritime power will have substantial economic impacts. Putin has once again backed himself into a corner, and I’m absolutely okay with that.