Commentary
-
Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
Hey everyone. Hello from Colorado where it’s 50 degrees and we just got a half a foot of snow because you know, Colorado. Today I wanted to talk about the next chapter of negotiations between the Russians and the world. It’s going to involve the Turks and the Germans specifically. Now the war in Ukraine began about a month ago there was this lightning shift in Berlin that upended 75 years of an attempt to make nice with the Russians.
And if you look back through Russian -German history, this is just part of the pattern. The, Germans trying to find a way to work with the Russian, it falls apart and there’s conflict. And then that falls apart and they try to make nice. And then that falls apart and there’s another conflict, and over and over and over again. The Germans are wow, changing their mind on the things very quickly.
So on day three of the war, they doubled their defense budget, which is, you know, impressive. But now the Germans are once again the laggards, saying when it comes to sanctions, quite accurately that… if they were to cut their dependence on Russian crude overnight, that their economy would collapse. And they’re probably right.
So instead of getting energy sanctions on a firm level, everyone is starting to beat the Germans about the head and shoulders and try to get them to go back to where they were just a couple of weeks ago. This is going to continue and the Russians are gonna do everything they can to take advantage of that situation. Now, whether it’s because of insurance, indemnification, fallthroughs or dock workers or ship captains refusing to work with Russian cargo or because of sanctions or because of boycotts, it doesn’t matter what happens. Maybe partisan activity…
All of the piped energy that goes to Europe, including to Germany, is going to be disrupted in the next few months. But there are a pair of pipelines known as Blue Stream, which goes to Turkey and Nordstream, which goes to Germany. They’re natural gas pipelines, and they go under the sea directly to their consuming countries. So the Russians know that these will not be disrupted by anything shy of sanctions from Germany and Turkey specifically.
So if we’re entering a world where something like 4 million barrels of Russian oil goes offline and something like 7 billion cubic feet a day of natural gas goes offline, but the Russians can go to the Turks and the Germans and say very clearly and very specifically that we can keep your lights on and only your lights, but in exchange, you have to pull out of the NATO Alliance that is opposing us in Ukraine.
Will it work? I don’t know. I give it a 50-50 chance. If you had asked me the day before the war, I would’ve said a hundred percent it was gonna work. But the Germans are in play for the first time in 75
Years.
Whether that’s comfortable or not, of course all depends upon your read of history and what part of the world you happen to be in.
But this is the next big crisis for the war, for the western alliance and for the outcome of where Turkey and Germany fall. Because if Turkey and Germany refused to participate in actions against the Russians in Ukraine, then NATO doesn’t function because you take the two single biggest countries in the European theater out of the alliance and turn them from empowering Western intervention to stopping it…and the Russians can do with Ukraine as they will. All right, that’s it for me until next time, take care.
-
What happens to China after Xi Jinping dies?
China is arguably the world’s second most powerful country, and its leader, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Xi Jinping, plays a major role in many of its economic and military decisions. So, with no heir apparent, what happens to China when Xi dies? Watch the above video as Straight Arrow News contributor… -
Impact of Italy’s older, shrinking population
Births in Italy fell by 3.6% in 2023, reaching a record low and raising concerns for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s efforts to address the country’s aging population. One senator from Meloni’s ruling party echoed Pope Francis’ call for Italians to have more children, stating that having children should be Italian women’s “main mission.” Watch the… -
Biden and Trump are both unfit to be president
According to a June pre-debate poll, a majority of Americans feel dissatisfied with having to choose between either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. The debate did little to address anxieties that voters have about these two candidates. Post-debate polls indicate that President Biden now trails former President Trump, yet many voters remain undecided. Watch the… -
Why the West can’t quit Russian oil
Oil and gas revenues have been Russia’s most important source of income, accounting for up to half of the total Russian budget over the last decade. Despite severe sanctions imposed by the West to curb Russian energy income following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s oil revenues don’t seem to have been significantly affected. Watch… -
Why Israel’s Supreme Court ended draft exemptions
On Tuesday, June 25, Israel’s Supreme Court unanimously struck down a military draft exemption privilege for members of its ultra-Orthodox Jewish community. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu relies on the support of two ultra-Orthodox parties to maintain power, both of which oppose the court ruling. The court held, in essence, that these military draft exemptions…
Popular Opinions
-
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum.
Latest Opinions
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum. We hope these different voices will help you reach your own conclusions.
The opinions published in this section are solely those of the contributors and do not reflect the views of Straight Arrow News.
Latest Commentary
We know it is important to hear from a diverse range of observers on the complex topics we face and believe our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions.
The commentaries published in this section are solely those of the contributors and do not reflect the views of Straight Arrow News.
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitical StrategistImpact of Italy’s older, shrinking population
Biden and Trump are both unfit to be president
Why the West can’t quit Russian oil
Dr. Frank Luntz
Pollster and Political Analyst‘Two bad choices’: Undecided voters before Biden-Trump debate
‘Money doesn’t go as far’: Americans discuss financial hardships
‘I am shocked’: Americans react to the Trump guilty verdict
Pete Ricketts
U.S. Senator for Nebraska