Israel and the United States have enjoyed a special relationship since the end of World War II and the formal establishment of the new nation. The U.S. has guaranteed Israeli security since that time and has continued to back it after the Hamas attack on Oct 7. But what happens to Israel once the U.S. is no longer willing or able to renew that guarantee?

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan looks at how Israeli society and demographics will shift over the coming decades and delves into the urgent security dilemma that Israel will confront in a post-American world.

Excerpted from Peter’s Dec. 26 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

We’re diving a little deeper into Israel for the next video in our ‘Post-American’ series. We’ll discuss their transition into a world without the U.S. around and what domestic and international challenges they might face.

Israel’s major domestic problem stems from the social support network offered to a chunk of their population; instead of working or serving in the military, they study the Torah and pop out kids. And as this group grows in size, it will drag the economy further down and limit the power that a future Israel ‘could’ have obtained. (The rising political power of this less-than-engaged portion of the Israeli population is a big piece of how Israel was so surprised by the Hamas assault in October 2023.)

Israel’s international problems are no cakewalk either. As the U.S. pulls out, Israel must beef up their security or find another guarantor. The most viable candidates are Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The Turks could be a bit of a wild card, but the Saudis are already tightening relations. These new partnerships are a top priority as tensions rise between Iran and Israel.

As all this unfolds, the fight over the Persian Gulf is brewing in the background. The stage is set for this region of the world to get quite chaotic. The partnerships Israel is curating could prove critical in determining which of the major regional powers will emerge on top.

Access Peter’s other post-American world commentaries:

• East Asia in a post-American world
• Romania in a post-American world
• Scandinavia reawakens in a post-American world
• Australia in a post-American world
• India in a post-American world
• How should Turkey navigate in a post-American world?
• Northern Africa in a post-American world
• Germany’s steep decline poses dire threat to future of EU
• The Middle East in a post-American world
• Getting ready for the post-American world