Tensions in the Middle East have flared up again in the aftermath of several Israeli strikes against high-level targets in both Hamas and Hezbollah. One of those strikes violated Iranian sovereignty, and experts suggest that it could not have occurred without Iranian insider support.

Iran has promised to respond with force, and Israel and Iran now appear increasingly prepared for an all-out war. The United States is moving more military assets into the Mediterranean theater to prepare for any possible escalation.

Watch the above video as Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan analyzes what might be happening within Iranian leadership structures and why he says this conflict probably won’t escalate into a total war.

The following is an excerpt from Peter’s Aug. 13 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

There’s no shortage of news coming out of the Middle East, but today we’re going to look at the rising tensions between Israel and Iran and Iranian proxy Hezbollah.

While we’ve seen multiple attacks between Iran and Israel — and Hezbollah is poking around as well — a broader war is unlikely. Each of these players is preoccupied and has bigger fish to fry. Israel with Gaza, Hezbollah integrating with the Lebanese government, and Iran having to manage an increasingly complex domestic political environment.

The big news is obviously Israel’s assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran, but there’s been a handful of back-and-forth attacks between the two countries. While Israel isn’t likely to topple the Islamic Republic via its targeted assassination campaigns their successes have resulted in rising domestic criticism of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Tensions — and attacks — between Israel and Iran/Hezbollah will almost certainly continue, but in terms of a major conflict or significant policy change… I wouldn’t expect much.