The seas above Russia’s northern coastline are too frozen for shipping, but some have wondered whether global warming might change that in the decades to come. If those seas were to become navigable for commercial shipping, new direct routes between Russia and China could theoretically open up.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan throws more cold water on that idea, and summarizes the reasons why he thinks those routes are unlikely to open up whether or not the ice melts.

Below is an excerpt from Peter’s April 25 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

As the ice begins to melt in the Arctic, will the Russians be able to establish a shipping route to the north? While establishing a northern sea route is possible, it won’t be the gold mine it’s been made out to be.

There are several factors that make the Russian’s northern sea route impractical: the need for navigational aids, limited search and rescue capabilities, lack of development and population centers along the route, and a high cost per mile given the absence of stops along the way. That’s before we even mention the unreliable military presence in this region and the financial constraints on projects like nuclear-powered icebreakers.

While this idea has some merit, I wouldn’t plan on shipping anything via “Russian Northern Express” anytime soon.