A year away from the 2024 presidential election, young voters could be the demographic to determine who wins. Young voters’ views of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have shifted significantly since 2020.
President Biden’s support among voters under 30 has dropped in the most recent Emerson College poll.
In 2020, Biden received 59% of the vote from people under the age of 30. When asked how voters would cast their ballot if the election were held today, Biden’s support from the nation’s youngest voters dropped to 43%.
While Trump maintained support from 35% of the young vote in 2020, 45% of Gen Z and young millennials said they would vote for Trump in a hypothetical rematch.
Trump’s support grew among 30- to 39-year-olds, according to the Emerson poll: Trump led Biden by 11 points, 49% to 38%.
Though the majority of young people tend to support Democrats, the Emerson poll has Trump accumulating more of the younger crowd’s support than the Democratic nominee. It’s not the only poll showing an unusual shift.
The latest Quinnipiac Poll has tracked Biden losing support among young voters since the Israel-Hamas war began. The president’s approval rating is the lowest among voters 18 to 34 years old at 29%. The president’s favorability is also lowest among young voters at 25%. Young voters had a slightly more favorable view of Trump in this poll at 28%
In a Washington Post-ABC poll, Trump led Biden by 20 points among voters under the age of 35. The Washington Post and ABC classified that poll as an outlier given other polls have Biden winning the young vote by significant margins.
Younger demographics’ loyalties appear unclear at this point.
For younger Republican voters backing the former president, their support is among Trump’s strongest. In the Republican primary, 73% of GOP voters ages 18 to 34 would choose Trump as their presidential candidate, according to a Survey USA poll. That’s higher than any other age demographic and 12 points higher than Republicans ages 50 to 64.
According to a New York Times poll, among all demographics within the GOP, it’s Gen Z that likes the former president the most. 83% of likely Republican voters 18 to 29 have a favorable view of Trump.
There’s also a portion of voters who are undecided. In the Emerson College poll that has Trump leading Biden 45% to 43% among young voters, 12% of the younger demographic marked “undecided.”
This could mean convincing that 12% could make a big difference between now and Election Day.
Voter turnout was lowest among 18 to 24-year-olds in 2020 at about 50%. For comparison, 76% of 65 to 74-year-olds voted, the most of any age bracket, per the U.S. Census Bureau.
