February marks the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. When Russian troops advanced into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, few could predict how the war would turn out, and probably fewer could predict the stalemate two years in.
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For Ukraine, victory means one thing: complete Russian withdrawal. For Putin, however, Russia’s version of victory is more complex.
In this episode of Weapons and Warfare, host Ryan Robertson spoke with Maj. Marnix “Max” Provoost of the Royal Netherlands Army. Provoost works as a PhD researcher at the Netherlands Defence Academy, and he’s the published author of “What is Russia’s Victory of Ukraine?”
“You have like four possible outcomes in a war, and the highest achievable is a political victory,” Provoost said. “Below that lies a military victory, below that lies a military defeat, and below that lies a political defeat.”
Though the outcomes may seem straightforward, Provoost argues that they aren’t, and that complexity may be exactly what Russia is angling for.
“Because if you suffer a military defeat, but you are still able to create a political narrative, that implies a political victory, then it’s that last thing that counts the political victory,” Provoost said.
On the surface, the war looks like it revolves around Russia reclaiming something it once owned. Provoost says Putin’s actions aim to prevent Russians from seeing what a free Ukraine would look like.
“If the Russian people see that adopting a different political and economic system can bring them more freedom and prosperity and that they aren’t necessarily deterministically bound by a narrative that the people suffer and serve the state, then that might cause some instability in Russia because people start questioning the Russian authoritarian rule and the oligarchic economy that is currently active in the country,” Provoost said.
At least for now, Putin has gotten what he wanted to some extent: delaying the growth of democracy in Ukraine.
“Ukraine, I think, as written down in its constitution that as long as the country is in a state of emergency, or in fact, at war, no democratic elections should be held,” Provoost said. “And there was a lot of discussion by the end of last year, whether Zelenskyy should hold elections or not, in the end, I think he decided not to do so.”
While Ukraine supporters push for more aid to the country, Provoost suggested there may be a better path to victory.
“Strategy implies letting Ukraine become a true democracy against all odds, but showing that despite Russia’s efforts, they still can hold elections, they still have a true democracy with opposition, et cetera,” he said. “And the other thing is to get that economy viable again. And that means that you need to get Ukrainian export through the Black Sea open again.”
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[RYAN ROBERTSON]
THIS MONTH MARKS THE SECOND ANNIVERSARY OF RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE. WHEN VLADIMIR PUTIN’S TROOPS CROSSED THE BORDER ON FEBRUARY 24th, 2022 FEW KNEW HOW THINGS WOULD TURNOUT, PROBABLY FEWER STILL WOULD HAVE PREDICTED A PRACTICAL STALEMATE TWO YEARS IN.
UKRAINE’S VICTORY MEANS ONE THING, A COMPLETE RUSSIAN WITHDRAWAL. FOR PUTIN VICTORY IS MORE COMPLEX. TO GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT THAT COULD LOOK LIKE, I RECENTLY SPOKE WITH MAX PROVOOST, A MAJOR IN THE ROYAL NETHERLANDS ARMY WORKING AS A PhD RESEARCHER AT THE NETHERLANDS DEFENCE ACADEMY. HE IS ALSO THE AUTHOR OF A PIECE THAT WAS PUBLISHED BY THE ‘MODERN WAR INSTITUTE’ TITLED ‘WHAT IS RUSSIA’S THEORY OF VICTORY IN UKRAINE?’.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
“You have like four possible outcomes in a war, and the highest achievable is a political victory. below that lies a military victory below that lies a military defeat. and below that lies a political defeat.”
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
WHILE THOSE MAY SEEM CUT AND DRY, ACCORDING TO MAX, THEY ARE NOT. AND IT MAY ULTIMATELY WHAT RUSSIA IS ANGLING FOR.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
“Because if you suffer a military defeat, but you are still able to create a political narrative, that implies a political victory, then it’s that last thing that counts the political victory.”
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
ON THE SURFACE IT MIGHT SEEM LIKE THE WAR IS ABOUT RUSSIA TAKING BACKING SOMETHING THAT WAS ONCE THEIRS. BUT AS THE MAJOR EXPLAINS, MUCH OF PUTIN’S ACTIONS ARE ABOUT PREVENTING WHAT A FREE UKRAINE WOULD LOOK LIKE TO RUSSIAN CITIZENS.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
“If the Russian people see that adopting a different political and economic system can bring them more freedom and prosperity and that they aren’t necessarily deterministically bound by a narrative that the people suffer and serve the state, then that might cause some instability in Russia because people start questioning the Russian authoritarian rule and the oligarchic economy that is currently active in the country.
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
TO SOME EXTENT, AT LEAST FOR NOW, PUTIN HAS GOT WHAT HE WANTS. THE DELAYED GROWTH OF DEMOCRACY IN UKRAINE.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
“Ukraine, I think, as written down in its constitution that as long as the country is in a state of emergency, or in fact, at war, no democratic elections should be held. And there was a lot of discussion by the end of last year, whether it’s Zelenski should hold elections or not, in the end, I think he decided not to do so.
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
”It’s hard to say you have a democracy if you’re not going to hold the Democratic vote, right?”
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
Yeah. And I don’t want to judge his decisions. Of course, there there are…
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
“But From the Russian propaganda perspective, it’s like, we stopped their vote. So that’s the first brick to fall to tearing down the democracy. Stop….
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
Exactly. You see that Solinsky, his political opponents, his political opposition, they questioned his decision not to hold the elections anymore.
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
AND WHILE SUPPORTERS OF UKRAINE CONTINUE TO PUSH FOR MORE MONEY AND HARDWARE. THE MAJOR SAYS THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE BEST PATH FOR VICTORY.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
“Strategy implies letting Ukraine become a true democracy against all odds, but showing that despite Russia’s efforts, they still can hold elections, they still have a true democracy with opposition etc. And the other thing is to get that economy by able again. And that means that you need, I think, to get Ukrainian export through the Black Sea open again.”
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
Max, hopefully, the powers that be will listen to you. And in a couple of months, we can circle back and there’ll be a completely different narrative to talk about, right. I mean, we can hope for that, right.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
“Maybe.
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
All right, sir.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
Thanks for having me.
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
Yeah, absolutely,
THANKS AGAIN TO MAJOR MAX PROVOOST AND IF YOU WANT TO HEAR OUR FULL CONVERSATION BE SURE TO CHECK OUT A BONUS EPISODE OF OUR PODCAST. THAT WILL BE OUT LATER THIS WEEK.
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