Ukraine’s counteroffensive may be moving slower than expected, but that doesn’t mean Ukrainians aren’t pressing the attack. Over the last month, the Armed Forces of Ukraine ferried troops and armored vehicles across the Dnipro River, south of Kherson. Now, it looks like Ukraine established a beachhead on the east bank of the river, which could prove quite consequential in the months ahead.
From a strategic standpoint, the Dnipro River is a natural barrier along the southern battle front that Russia exploited to great effect. After evacuating Kherson a year ago, Russian forces withdrew to the east — or left bank — of the river. From there, Russian forces could stifle Ukrainian advances while trenches and minefields made up the bulk of Russian defenses elsewhere.
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If the beachhead Ukraine established holds, Ukraine’s armed forces might be able to bypass the bulk of Russia’s main defensive lines and outflank Russian positions. Ukraine could also establish a more direct route to Crimea.
To counter Ukraine’s new foothold, Russia will also need to re-deploy troops from other parts of the frontlines to stop Ukraines advance along the Dnipro. This will no doubt stretch Moscow’s resources even further along the approximately 600 miles of frontline.
The tactics to establish the beachhead were similar to what Ukraine is using to clear out Russian trenches and tree lines: small, fast-moving units that strike quickly and then leave the area. Now that it has a foothold on the eastern bank of the river, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Ukraine is increasingly conducting larger-than-usual ground operations there and establishing supply lines for its troops.
Ukrainian leaders requested “informational silence” about the operations along the Dnipro.
“The Russians understand that the advance of the defense forces is inevitable, but they cannot calculate from which direction they can expect such a danger,” said Natalia Humeniuk, a press officer with Ukrainian Armed Forces.
A beachhead on the east bank is significant, but it’s not likely the grand victory to end the war quickly. Instead, the fighting is likely to stretch on for the foreseeable future, which means Ukraine will need more money, weapons and aid shipments from its Western partners.
American aid isn’t dried up yet, but the United States is trying to figure out ways to fund its own government, which in turn led lawmakers to press pause on any legislation that would send more aid to Ukraine.
Germany is still sending plenty of weapons and ammo. The German Ministry of Defense released details of next year’s aid packages to Ukraine worth more than $8.5 billion. The shipments will include 10 more Leopard 1A5 tanks, 14 Bandvagn 205 tracked vehicles for troop transport, a Winsent mine-clearing tank, air defense systems, ammo and drones.
Meanwhile, the Russians are also trying to press the attack and recapture the momentum on the battlefield. Most of Russia’s recent efforts focused on Avdiivka, in Ukraine’s east. The fighting there is said to be some of the fiercest of the war.
The ISW and Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense said while Russia did manage to take a few kilometers of new territory, thousands of Russian troops died and dozens of armored vehicles were destroyed in the effort.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Tags: Crimea, Dnipro, Germany, Kherson, Military Aid, Russia, The Institute for the Study of War, Ukraine, Ukraine aid, Ukraine Defense Ministry
UKRAINE’S COUNTEROFFENSIVE MAY BE MOVING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, BUT THAT DOESN’T MEAN UKRAINIANS AREN’T PRESSING THE ATTACK. OVER THE LAST MONTH, UKRAINE’S ARMED FORCES FERRIED TROOPS AND ARMORED VEHICLES ACROSS THE DNIPRO RIVER, SOUTH OF KHERSON. NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE UKRAINE ESTABLISHED A BEACHHEAD ON THE EAST BANK OF THE RIVER, WHICH COULD PROVE QUITE CONSEQUENTIAL IN THE MONTHS AHEAD.
FROM A STRATEGIC STANDPOINT, THE DNIPRO RIVER IS A NATURAL BARRIER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BATTLE FRONT THAT RUSSIA EXPLOITED TO GREAT EFFECT. AFTER EVACUATING KHERSON A YEAR AGO, RUSSIAN FORCES WITHDREW TO THE EAST, OR RIGHT BANK, OF THE RIVER. FROM THERE, RUSSIAN FORCES COULD STIFLE UKRAINIAN ADVANCES WHILE TRENCHES AND MINEFIELDS MADE UP THE BULK OF RUSSIAN DEFENSES ELSEWHERE.
IF THE BEACHHEAD UKRAINE ESTABLISHED HOLDS, UKRAINE’S ARMED FORCES MIGHT BE ABLE TO BYPASS THE BULK OF RUSSIA’S MAIN DEFENSIVE LINES AND OUTFLANK RUSSIAN POSITIONS. UKRAINE COULD ALSO ESTABLISH A MORE DIRECT ROUTE TO CRIMEA.
TO COUNTER UKRAINE’S NEW FOOTHOLD, RUSSIA WILL ALSO NEED TO RE-DEPLOY TROOPS FROM OTHER PARTS OF THE FRONTLINES TO STOP UKRAINE’S ADVANCE ALONG THE DNIPRO. THIS WILL NO DOUBT STRETCH MOSCOW’S RESOURCES EVEN FURTHER ALONG THE 600 MILES OR SO OF FRONTLINE.
THE TACTICS TO ESTABLISH THE BEACHHEAD WERE SIMILAR TO WHAT UKRAINE IS USING TO CLEAR OUT RUSSIAN TRENCHES AND TREELINES: SMALL, FAST MOVING UNITS THAT STRIKE QUICKLY AND THEN LEAVE THE AREA. NOW THAT IT HAS A FOOTHOLD ON THE EASTERN BANK OF THE RIVER, THE INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR SAYS UKRAINE IS INCREASINGLY CONDUCTING LARGER-THAN-USUAL GROUND OPERATIONS THERE AND ESTABLISHING SUPPLY LINES FOR ITS TROOPS.
A BEACHHEAD ON THE EAST BANK IS SIGNIFICANT, BUT IT’S NOT LIKELY THE GRAND VICTORY TO END THE WAR QUICKLY. INSTEAD, THE FIGHTING IS LIKELY TO STRETCH ON FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WHICH MEANS UKRAINE WILL NEED MORE MONEY, WEAPONS AND AID SHIPMENTS FROM ITS WESTERN PARTNERS.
AMERICAN AID ISN’T DRIED UP YET, BUT THE U.S. IS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WAYS TO FUND ITS OWN GOVERNMENT, WHICH MEANS PRESSING PAUSE ON ANY LEGISLATION THAT WOULD SEND MORE AID TO UKRAINE.
GERMANY IS STILL SENDING PLENTY OF WEAPONS AND AMMO, THOUGH. THE GERMAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE RELEASED DETAILS OF NEXT YEAR’S AID PACKAGES TO UKRAINE. THEY’RE WORTH MORE THAN $8.5 BILLION. THE SHIPMENTS WILL INCLUDE MORE LEOPARD TANKS, INFANTRY FIGHTING VEHICLES, AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, AMMO AND DRONES.
MEANWHILE, THE RUSSIANS ARE ALSO TRYING TO PRESS THE ATTACK AND RECAPTURE THE MOMENTUM ON THE BATTLEFIELD. MOST OF RUSSIA’S RECENT EFFORTS FOCUSED ON AVDIIVKA, IN UKRAINE’S EAST. THE FIGHTING THERE IS SAID TO BE SOME OF THE FIERCEST OF THE WAR.
THE ISW AND UKRAINE’S MINISTRY OF DEFENSE SAY WHILE RUSSIA DID MANAGE TO TAKE A FEW KILOMETERS OF NEW TERRITORY, THOUSANDS OF RUSSIAN TROOPS DIED AND DOZENS OF ARMORED VEHICLES WERE DESTROYED IN THE EFFORT.
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