Trump 2.0 could be very different for Israel and its wars

[Ryan Robertson]

ISRAEL PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU FIRED HIS MINISTER OF DEFENSE, YOAV GALLANT IN EARLY NOVEMBER. THE MOVE MEANS THERE’S NO REAL OPPOSITION LEFT TO NETANYAHU IN THE GOVERNING COALITION, LEAVING MANY ISRAELI CITIZENS TO WONDER WHEN THE WARS IN GAZA AND LEBANON WILL END.

AVI MELAMED IS A FORMER ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE OFFICER AND HOSTAGE NEGOTIATOR. HE’S AN AUTHOR NOW, AND I’VE SPOKEN TO HIM SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE COURSE OF THE WAR IN GAZA.

HE CORRECTLY PREDICTED SOME OF THE ACTIONS TAKEN BY THE ISRAELI MILITARY, INCLUDING THE MEASURED RESPONSES TO IRAN’S TWO MISSILE ATTACKS.

CONCERNING GALLANT’S FIRING, MELAMED SAYS IT DIDN’T REALLY SURPRISE ANYONE IN ISRAEL

Melamed: I think that they both understood that the forced cooperation to a large extent has come to an end. They have different political agendas. So Netanyahu fired Gallant and I think that Gallant, basically from a political perspective, Gallant gained credibility in Israeli public opinion. He comes across as one that actually puts the best of the nation above any other calculation.

THERE IS GROWING SENTIMENT IN ISRAEL NETANYAHU IS KEEPING THE WARS GOING FOR POLITICAL REASONS, LIKE HE WANTS TO AVOID AN ELECTION THAT MIGHT SEE HIM REPLACED. OTHERS SAY THE PRIME MINISTER WANTS TO KEEP THE FOCUS ON WAR-FIGHTING, AND NOT HOW THE WAR STARTED.

Melamed: That criticism is not, is not new. It’s coming from different circles, not only the public realm of course, but it comes from circles that were involved or are involved in the negotiations. Particularly the security and intelligence establishment that openly stated that more than once there could be a window for a deal for releasing hostages and Netanyahu was actually damaging or sabotaging or stopping the process. depends who defines what. It seems like all in all, when you hear all these voices, it seems like those allegations are not baseless.

ACCORDING TO THE GUARDIAN, AFTER BEING SACKED BY NETANYAHU GALLANT TOLD SOME OF THE FAMILIES OF HOSTAGES STILL BEING HELD IN GAZA THERE WAS ‘NOTHING LEFT FOR THE IDF TO DO.’ THAT FROM A MILITARY PERSPECTIVE, ITS MISSION WAS OVER, AND IT’S NOW INAPPROPRIATE FOR ISRAEL TO STILL HAVE TROOPS THERE.

AND MILITARILY, MELAMED WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH GALLANT. HAMAS IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND CAN’T DICTATE ANY SORT OF AGENDA, NOT LIKE IT WAS ABLE TO THE LAST 40 YEARS, AND CERTAINLY NOT LIKE IT WAS ABLE TO ON OCTOBER 7TH.

Melamed: But again, if you are going from a political perspective, those–and particularly I’m talking about right-wing, the ultra-nationalist right-wing in the government–would obviously would like to see the continuation of the war because they are dreaming of the day they will be able to re-establish Israeli settlements. Netanyahu, from a political perspective, has an interest in endurance of the war, as of now, until some new circumstances will arise when Netanyahu will decide that now it’s time to announce triumph, ultimate triumph and ultimate victory.

BUT WILL THE FAR-RIGHT’S MOVE BE EMBRACED BY ISRAEL’S ALLIES? SPECIFICALLY THE U.S.?
ISRAEL’S FINANCE MINISTER DID SAY NOW THAT PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP IS SET TO TAKE THE WHITE HOUSE AGAIN, ISRAEL SHOULD LOOK TO EXTEND ITS SOVEREIGNTY TO THE WEST BANK. AND THERE ARE GROWING CALLS IN ISRAEL’S FAR-RIGHT TO ANNEX THE GAZA STRIP AS WELL.

MELAMED SAYS THERE’S REASON TO BELIEVE, HOWEVER, A SECOND TRUMP TERM WON’T BE A CARBON-COPY OF THE FIRST.

Melamed: Because it’s about Trump’s legacy. And I think that the right-wing leaders in Israel should listen very carefully to what he said this time. He said, ‘I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to end wars.’ Which is a very strong message. It didn’t come from Trump in the previous time. And so I would definitely expect that his policy, vis-à-vis the whole issue will be much more balanced, including veto on any idea of Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank, in the areas that are clearly not supposed to be under any kind of Israeli sovereignty.

FOR MORE FROM MELAMED AND OUR PREVIOUS CONVERSATIONS BE SURE TO CHECK OUT SAN.COM. BUT WHEN WHEN IT COMES TO PRESIDENT ELECT TRUMP, MELAMED THINKS HE’LL LIKELY WANT AN EXTENSION OF THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS, WITH MORE NATIONS NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH ISRAEL AND A DISTINCT FOCUS ON SAUDI ARABIA.
BUT THERE AGAIN, THE SAUDIS WON’T COME TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE WHILE THE WAR IN GAZA IS ONGOING. SO, WHILE ISRAEL, AND ITS GOVERNMENT, MAY BE READYING FOR A RETURN TO THE RIGHT IN THE U.S., JERUSALEM PROBABLY SHOULDN’T EXPECT A BLANK CHECK OR FREE PASS FROM TRUMP.

FOR STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS, I’M RYAN ROBERTSON. FOR MORE OF OUR UNBIASED, STRAIGHT FACT REPORTING BE SURE TO DOWNLOAD THE STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS APP TODAY, OR LOG ONTO SAN.COM