During the Cold War, the term “arms race” regularly appeared on national news and across the front pages of magazines and newspapers, framing the race for firepower between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. While the term is not used as often today, the “arms race” between America and its near-peer adversaries, specifically China and Russia, remains a reality.
This is especially true regarding China and its efforts to build an advantage for any potential conflict. At the end of 2024, the People’s Republic of China allowed images to be published on social media showing what appeared to be two new sixth-generation aircraft. The unveiling coincided with the birthday of Mao Zedong, the founder and longtime leader of the PRC.
Imagery was scant, consisting of a couple of shaky videos likely shot by amateurs or made to look that way. Most of the attention focused on the larger of the two aircraft, dubbed the JH-36, which is about 30% bigger than the 70-foot-long J-20 tailing it in the video.
The JH-36 does not have a tail. The flying wing delta design is inherently stealthier and can give the plane a longer range, but at the cost of maneuverability. The JH-36 has internal weapons bays and three engines, but it is not clear if it is a piloted craft or unmanned. The two-seat J-20 may actually be carrying the pilot of the JH-36.
The other stealth aircraft revealed by the PLAAF was a smaller plane featuring a lambda design. The video never showed a top view, so it is unknown if there is a pilot inside or if it is a drone.
There are many unanswered questions and much speculation, but one thing is clear when talking with some American pilots and military experts.
“It’s nothing original,” said Matthew “Whiz” Buckley, a former F/A-18 fighter pilot and graduate of the Navy’s Top Gun program. “Everything China has, they’ve stolen. From our submarine technology in the ’90s under Bill Clinton to the Joint Strike Fighter. If it’s not nailed down, they steal it. Now they can change puppy and call it small dog, but it’s still 99.9% our technology.”
Buckley is far from the first person to say China is stealing military technology. However, stealing a design is different from building an actual sixth-generation stealth aircraft.
“Do you think that these planes can maintain stealth?” asked Ryan Robertson, host of Weapons and Warfare.
“I didn’t. But again, let’s go back to spy versus spy,” Buckley responded. “Is that their no-s— frontline fighter, or is that just the demo? Are they throwing something out there with some screws hanging out just so you and I can jump on a podcast? So, you know, you never know what they’re showing. So it could be, you know, they’re doing that on purpose, but let’s take it at face value.”
“When they hack into our stuff and steal these things, is it our older stuff?” Robertson asked. “I mean, the F-22 tech, it’s an amazing fighter, but the technology that made the F-22 is decades old at this point. Should we be worried that China is now going to be able to dominate the skies and move U.S. forces out of the way and throw their weight around?”
“Let me give you the immediate answer that as a Top Gun graduate, I’ll tell you, yeah, you should always be worried that your enemy is going to outgun you,” Buckley explained. “That’s the whole purpose of Top Gun, right? My alleged combat sorties over southern Iraq were without a doubt a joke. They were the most boring flying I ever did in my career. The scariest part was landing back aboard the boat at night, low on fuel. But that means we’re succeeding in our training.
“So we’ve had about two decades of underestimating our opponents, haven’t we? Dudes in Toyota trucks and flip-flops kicked us out of Afghanistan, and Iraq’s a complete, you know, s—hole right now. And then now look at Yemen. We got the same dudes in flip-flops and Toyota trucks closing the Red Sea and ripping off attacks at the fleet. So let me lead with that. Never underestimate your enemy. Assume that he has stolen absolutely everything, iterated and made it better.”
“Even though its capabilities are speculative, it still represents a significant leap in China’s aviation technology,” said Eric Brown, a former Green Beret with decades of military experience. “And then they’re not just copycatting us anymore. They’re actually trying to surpass us with their tech. So they’re looking at, in my opinion, and from a defense analysis viewpoint, China’s trying to take over the superiority of the air the same way they’re trying to do it in the sea.”
Brown is not an aviation expert, but he is knowledgeable about tactics.
“I would argue China’s priority is to become the next world hegemon,” Brown continued. “And they’re putting all their money into the defense and being able to project power. At the same time, I think over the past couple of years, we focused more on not those type of initiatives. So cutting military, cutting innovation and looking more at people and feelings, just get right down to it. Instead of, yeah, you gotta stay strong, right?”
If we assume China is stealing everything almost as quickly as it is designed, how does America stay strong and ahead of its adversaries? Better cybersecurity is one way, but also training. As Buckley said, his training was harder than his actual combat sorties.
“It’s the man in the box. When it comes down to air-to-air engagement, it ain’t the box. It’s the man in the box. And for all their Gucci bells and whistles and s—, they just don’t have the experience that we do. You know, our F-35s are lighting up Yemen. Maybe they lit up Iran. We’ll find out in a couple of years in a book, maybe. Our folks are out there on the tip of the spear,” Buckley concluded.
Access the full Weapons and Warfare episode here.
Access all Weapons and Warfare podcast episodes here.
