After nearly three months of negotiations, senators believe they are close to an agreement on an aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific. As Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. put it, “We’re down to the last ten yard line.”

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Why the new sense of optimism? Because the package now includes what Republicans describe as meaningful reforms to immigration policy including asylum, expedited removal, parole and more. 

“The work’s not done on the supplemental but I am really hopeful that negotiations are in the right direction,” Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said. “We are closer than we have ever been. And the sense of cooperation between Leader McConnell and myself and the leadership of both sides, you’ve heard what Senators Thune and Cornyn have said lately, bodes very well, bodes very well for getting things done.” 

But if the Senate comes to an agreement, it won’t be easy to get through the House where Republicans say they want nothing short of HR2, their signature border bill that Democrats describe as extreme.

“Border, border, border,” Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said. “We have to take care of our own house. We have to secure our own border before we talk about anything else.”

Conservative House Republicans think they could get an even better deal if former President Donald Trump is reelected in November. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., told NBC News she would personally file a motion to force a vote on ousting Speaker Johnson if he brings forward a deal that provides funding for Ukraine, regardless of what immigration reforms it includes.

But Senate Republicans are very publicly telling their House Republican colleagues that this deal is as good as any they’re going to get, so support it now while they have the chance. 

“To get this kind of border security without granting a pathway to citizenship is really unheard of,” Sen. Graham said. “So if you think you’re going to get a better deal, next time, in ‘25 if President Trump’s president, Democrats will be expecting a pathway to citizenship for that.”

“If we had a 100% Republican government – President, House, Senate – we probably would not be able to get a single Democratic vote to pass what Senator Lankford and the administration are trying to get together on,” Sen. Minority leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told reporters. 

After a meeting with President Joe Biden and other Congressional leaders on Wednesday, Jan. 17, Speaker Johnson told CNN that he will not commit to putting the package on the House floor for a vote.