WE’RE TWO YEARS INTO RUSSIA’S THREE DAY SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION TO TAKE UKRAINE. HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE ARE DEAD. ENTIRE CITIES REDUCED TO RUBBLE. THE 600-MILE FRONTLINE HASN’T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST YEAR, BUT IF YOU BELIEVE WHAT WORLD LEADERS ARE SAYING THIS NEXT YEAR COULD DECIDE THE FATE OF UKRAINE, RUSSIA, AND THE WORLD FOR THE REST OF HUMAN HISTORY.

I KNOW. IT’S A LOT. LET’S START WITH THE SITUATION AT THE FRONTLINES. AFTER LAST YEAR’S UNSUCCESSFUL COUNTEROFFENSIVE, UKRAINE WAS FORCED TO TAKE UP DEFENSIVE POSITIONS, CEDING MOMENTUM IN THE WAR TO THE RUSSIANS. MOSCOW CAPITALIZED ON THAT AND TOOK AVDIIVKA IN EASTERN UKRAINE, THE SITE OF THE BLOODIEST BATTLES SINCE AT LEAST BAKHMUT AND POSSIBLY THE ENTIRE WAR.

RUSSIA HAD BEEN TRYING TO TAKE AVDIIVKA SINCE 2014, WHEN MOST UKRAINIANS SAY THE REAL WAR WITH RUSSIA STARTED. AFTER RUSSIA’S FULL-SCALE INVASION, UKRAINE WAS ABLE TO HOLD AVDIIVKA BECAUSE OF WESTERN ARTILLERY, MOSTLY FROM THE UNITED STATES. BUT THE U.S. HASN’T PASSED A SUBSTANTIAL AID PACKAGE TO UKRAINE IN OVER A YEAR, AND WHAT AMMO SUPPLIES UKRAINE DOES HAVE ARE DWINDLING. SO, DEFENDING AVDIIVKA BECAME UNSUSTAINABLE.

AND THAT BRINGS US TO SUPPLIES. WHO HAS THEM, AND WHO’S GETTING MORE? FROM THE START, RUSSIA ALWAYS HAD MORE MANPOWER, MORE GUNS, MORE TANKS; JUST MORE OF EVERYTHING. IN THE EARLY DAYS OF FIGHTING, THOUGH, THE UKRAINIAN FIGHTING SPIRIT WAS CHARGED. NATIONAL PRIDE SWELLED AND THERE WAS AN INFLUX OF WESTERN SUPPORT. THOSE FACTORS ALLOWED UKRAINE TO STAND UP TO RUSSIA AND PUSH BACK THE EARLY ONSLAUGHT. IT ALSO HELPED THE DONATED WESTERN WEAPONRY PROVED SUPERIOR TO RUSSIAN.

BUT IN A PROLONGED WAR, MASS MATTERS. FOR EXAMPLE, IN AVDIIVKA, RUSSIA WAS FIRING 10,000 ARTILLERY ROUNDS A DAY COMPARED TO UKRAINE’S 2,000. AND RUSSIAN SOLDIERS REPORTEDLY OUTNUMBERED UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS SEVEN TO ONE.

RUSSIA IS ALSO RAMPING UP ITS WEAPONS PRODUCTION AT A RATE NO ONE IN NATO THOUGHT POSSIBLE AND STRUCK DEALS WITH IRAN AND NORTH KOREA TO GET MORE ARTILLERY SHELLS AND MISSILES. INCLUDING BALLISTIC MISSILES.

EUROPEAN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE REMAINS STRONG, BUT THE FOLLOW THROUGH ISN’T ALWAYS THERE. UKRAINE’S EUROPEAN ALLIES ADMITTED THEY ARE FAR BEHIND WHERE THEY SHOULD BE TO HIT THEIR GOAL OF PROVIDING KYIV WITH A MILLION 155MM ARTILLERY ROUNDS A YEAR. BUT DENMARK SAID IT WOULD GIVE THE ENTIRETY OF ITS ARTILLERY TO UKRAINE, CANADA IS GOING TO FUND THE PURCHASE OF SHELLS FROM NON-NATO COUNTRIES, AND GERMAN DEFENSE CONGLOMERATE RHEINMETALL IS PUSHING FORWARD WITH PLANS TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE ITS SHELL PRODUCTION.

EARLY IN THE WAR, UKRAINE HELD A CLEAR ADVANTAGE IN DRONE WARFARE. RUSSIA INCREASED ITS PRODUCTION OF DRONES TOO, THOUGH. SO, DRONES ARE NOW EQUALLY A THREAT ON BOTH SIDES.

RUSSIAN BOMBERS FOUND SUCCESS LAUNCHING GLIDE BOMBS AT UKRAINIAN CITIES, BUT UKRAINE IS NOW COUNTERING THAT THREAT BY MOVING ITS PATRIOT AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS CLOSER TO THE FRONTLINES. THE MOVE IS PAYING OFF, AS UKRAINE WAS RECENTLY ABLE TO DOWN SEVEN SUKHOI FIGHTER JETS IN FIVE DAYS.

AND THAT EXAMPLE IS SORT OF A MICROCOSM OF THIS WAR AS A WHOLE. UKRAINE DOESN’T HAVE MUCH OF AN AIR FORCE BUT WAS ABLE TO USE WESTERN WEAPONS TO STAND AGAINST A MUCH LARGER FOE. SUPPORTERS SAY, IMAGINE WHAT UKRAINE COULD DO IF THEY EVER GOT THE SAME SORT OF ARMAMENTS NATO WOULD USE IN A WAR WITH RUSSIA? YOU KNOW, THINGS LIKE LONG-RANGE MISSILES OR AIR SUPPORT?

BUT RUSSIA KNOWS WESTERN SUPPORT, OR U.S. SUPPORT, IS HANGING BY A THREAD. SO, WHILE UKRAINE MIGHT HAVE THE MISSILES TO DOWN RUSSIAN JETS TODAY, THEY DON’T HAVE ENOUGH TO KEEP IT UP INDEFINITELY. JUST LIKE THERE WEREN’T ENOUGH ARTILLERY SHELLS IN AVDIIVKA.

MOST OF THE EU AND NATO-ALLIES AGREE PUTIN WON’T STOP IN UKRAINE IF HE’S SUCCESSFUL. THAT’S WHY NATO COUNTRIES ARE SPENDING ON DEFENSE LIKE THEY NEVER HAVE BEFORE. U.S. MILITARY LEADERS ALSO SAY CHINA IS WATCHING UKRAINE, BECAUSE WHAT HAPPENS THERE COULD HAPPEN IN TAIWAN. AND IF THE WORLD IS UNWILLING TO STOP RUSSIA AND CHINA, THEN WHY WOULD IT BE WILLING TO STOP IRAN, WHICH HAS DESIGNS ON RESHAPING THE MIDDLE EAST?

SO, AS I SAID AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS STORY: WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT YEAR IN UKRAINE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED AND MONITORED BY GOVERNMENTS AND MILITARIES AROUND THE WORLD, BECAUSE IT COULD ALL BE A PREVIEW OF WHAT LIES AHEAD.