Putin signals cease-fire talks with Trump, sets strict conditions

[ryan robertson]

RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN SAYS HE’S OPEN TO DISCUSSING A CEASEFIRE IN UKRAINE WITH PRESIDENT ELECT DONALD TRUMP, BUT ONLY UNDER STRICT CONDITIONS.

PUTIN’S PROPOSAL WOULD FREEZE THE CONFLICT ALONG CURRENT FRONT LINES, ALLOWING RUSSIA TO HOLD ONTO SIGNIFICANT TERRITORY, INCLUDING CRIMEA AND LARGE PARTS OF DONETSK, LUHANSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, AND KHERSON REGIONS. ALTOGETHER, IT’S AN AREA ABOUT THE SIZE OF VIRGINIA, AND MAKES UP CLOSE TO 20% OF UKRAINE’S TERRITORY. THE AREA ALSO INCLUDES VITAL LAND ROUTES TO CRIMEA. HOWEVER, PUTIN RULED OUT RETURNING CRIMEA OR MAKING MAJOR TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS. OH, AND HE’S ALSO DEMANDING UKRAINE ABANDON ITS NATO AMBITIONS.

RUSSIA’S TERMS REPORTEDLY INCLUDE LIMITS ON UKRAINE’S MILITARY SIZE AND GUARANTEES TO PROTECT THE USE OF THE RUSSIAN LANGUAGE. WHILE MOSCOW SAYS IT’S WILLING TO OFFER SECURITY GUARANTEES TO UKRAINE, IT INSISTS NATO MUST STAY OUT OF THE COUNTRY ENTIRELY.

THE KREMLIN’S POSITION REFLECTS ITS BROADER GOAL OF SECURING TERRITORIAL GAINS AND COUNTERING WHAT IT SEES AS NATO’S ENCROACHMENT–EVEN THOUGH NATO MEMBERS JOIN THE ALLIANCE VOLUNTARILY. PUTIN FRAMED THE CONFLICT AS A TURNING POINT IN RESISTING WESTERN INFLUENCE IN RUSSIA’S SPHERE OF CONTROL.

THE POTENTIAL TALKS COULD RESEMBLE A 2022 DRAFT AGREEMENT DISCUSSED DURING THE ISTANBUL NEGOTIATIONS. THAT PLAN SUGGESTED UKRAINIAN NEUTRALITY IN EXCHANGE FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY GUARANTEES FROM U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL MEMBERS. BUT KYIV REMIANS FIRM, DEMANDING FULL TERRITORIAL SOVEREIGNTY, INCLUDING THE RETURN OF CRIMEA.

ALL OF THIS ISN’T HAPPENING IN A VACCUUM. REPORTS FROM THE FRONTLINES SHOW THE FIGHTING IS GROWING MORE INTENSE. RUSSIA ADVANCED MORE RAPIDLY THIS YEAR THAN AT ANY POINT SINCE THE EARLY DAYS OF THE WAR.
THE KREMLIN SAYS IT WILL CONTINUE MILITARY OPERATIONS IF NO CEASEFIRE IS REACHED. WITH PUTIN HOLDING DECISIVE CONTROL OVER ANY NEGOTIATIONS, A TEMPORARY TRUCE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER MOST ANALYSTS AGREE A LONG-TERM PEACE DEAL REMAINS UNLIKELY.

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