Javier Milei promised pain for the people of Argentina, and they elected him president anyway, with the highest share of votes since Argentina’s return to democracy. One year removed from his resounding victory, are Argentines already running out of patience with Milei?
He’s still the most popular political leader in the inflation-ravaged nation, but popularity is fleeting. Now, more than half the country disapproves of how Milei is running Argentina, up from 48% in January.
More than half the country also lives in poverty. In Milei’s first six months in office, the poverty rate has spiked from 42% to 53%.
“It’s one long Groundhog Day over there,” said Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and expert on Argentina. “I’m a bit of an outlier, opinion-wise, in terms of what Milei has done. I know that most economists, or at least a lot of economists, think that he’s doing a great job, but my grading for him would be a four [out of 10] at best.”
“I would put maybe seven or eight,” said Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. “They have done significant progress in terms of stabilizing the economy.”
Milei inherited a terrible economy: hyperinflation in the triple digits, the poverty rate double what it was six years before, and a country on the brink of another economic crisis. Milei promised shock therapy and Argentina signed up.
“The shock therapy approach that Milei implemented was in large part because of the failure of the gradualist approach,” de Bolle said. “But the risk with the shock therapy approach is always that you know things are going to get very bad, and it’s still going to take a very long time for them to improve if they do improve.”
When Milei first took office, he devalued the country’s currency while at the same time removing price controls and federal subsidies his people had come to rely on. That led to a surge in inflation while, at the same time, taking away safety nets.
“You’re playing with fire in a sense because you’re doing all of these things at once,” de Bolle said. “They’re all going to hit the population in one go. That, I think, was correctly communicated to people, and I think they understood it, which is why they’ve been able to hold on to these policies for as long as they have, but now patience is running out.”
“Given that his support in Congress is quite limited, it’s important for him to keep the popular support,” Castellano pointed out.
“If things do not improve very quickly, we are going to be seeing people out in the streets protesting again, and we’re going to see social upheaval, and we’re going to see political upheaval,” de Bolle said. “That is how it usually plays out, and there’s no reason why this time will be any different from what it has been in the past.”
The protests have already begun. In October, hundreds of thousands of students took to the streets against budget cuts at public universities, where the salaries of most teachers now fall below the poverty line.
“We are losing a lot of people that we cannot replace because they do not get enough to make a living,” University of Buenos Aires professor Nicolas Sirolli told Reuters.
State workers went on strike the same month, demanding better wages and denouncing Milei’s economic policies. The walkout coincided with a transportation worker strike, which ground the country to a halt.
“The perception is one where, ‘No, there’s no improvement here. They keep telling us that things are improving, but things are really not improving because I look at my purchasing power, and it’s going down,’” de Bolle said.
For the most part, wages in Argentina aren’t budging while inflation continues to soar. Spurred by Milei’s shock therapy, annual inflation reached nearly 300% in April. But for six straight months, that annual rate has worked its way down, though it’s still nearly 200% and higher than when Milei was elected. But in October, monthly inflation dipped below 3%, the lowest monthly price increase in the country in nearly three years.
“I think that the progress on the inflation front has been quite, quite remarkable, and we will see inflation declining further in the coming months as particularly those high readings from last year are out of the picture,” Castellano said.
On top of it all, the economy is still in a recession and pushing deeper than expected. Estimates now have the economy contracting about 4% this year. But BBVA Research expects a 6% rebound next year, driven by investments, exports and private consumption. Milei’s budget projects a 5% expansion with inflation a little over 18% by the end of 2025. It hasn’t been that low since the mid-2010s.
From the outside, there are many bright spots in what Milei has achieved so far. And his friendship with President-elect Donald Trump gives him an important international ally. But the view is mixed within the country’s borders.
“People are starting to do the mental calculation of what these policies have effectively cost them to date from the time that they were adopted, and then they’re looking ahead and doing the calculation of, ‘Well, when can I expect an improvement? I just can’t see it,’” de Bolle said. “And therefore, you get this turning point from relative optimism or cautionary optimism into pessimism.”
While Argentines voted for change, patience is wearing thin. But experts say measurable change is around the corner.
“The worst of the adjustment is behind,” Castellano said. “But I think fine-tuning and improving, particularly on the political front, is going to be more important, increasingly important, in the coming months.”
Simply put, Milei doesn’t have a lot of support in Congress, especially for his unpopular policies. His party holds a minority in both chambers, and the 2025 midterms will serve as a referendum on his progress.
“That is why I ask you to move forward with faith and confidence,” Milei told a crowd of supporters. “Because from now on, we will only have good news, and in 2025, we will give an electoral blow.”
His austerity experiment may depend on it.