Prigozhin’s mutiny muddies matters in Russia, Ukraine

YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN’S PLAN TO BRING HIS MERCENARIES TO MOSCOW WAS THE BIGGEST PUBLIC THREAT TO VLADIMIR PUTIN’S 23 YEAR REIGN IN RUSSIA. WHILE MOSCOW TRIED TO CONVEY A SENSE OF NORMALCY MONDAY, A LOT OF FOLKS ARE ASKING WHAT THE HECK HAPPENED? AND WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

FOR STARTERS, LET’S GO AHEAD AND DEFINE WHAT EXACTLY PRIGOZHIN LEAD; AN ATTEMPTED MUTINY OR A COUP?

A COUP, SHORT FOR COUP D’ETAT, IS A SUDDEN, VIOLENT OR UNLAWFUL SEIZURE OF POWER.

A MUTINY IS AN OPEN REBELLION AGAINST THE PROPER AUTHORITIES, USUALLY BY SOLDIERS AND SAILORS AGAINST THEIR OFFICERS.

SO, THIS WAS A MUTINY. PRIGOZHIN SAID FROM THE START HE WANTED TO OUST RUSSIA’S TOP MILITARY LEADERS, AND THERE IS A LONG-DOCUMENTED FEUD BETWEEN PRIGOZHIN AND THE LEADERSHIP OF RUSSIA’S ARMED FORCES.

BEFORE HIS MERCENARIES REACHED MOSCOW, THOUGH, PRIGOZHIN NEGOTIATED A DEAL WITH THE PRESIDENT OF BELARUS, ENDING THE MUTINY ALMOST AS QUICKLY AS IT BEGAN.

THE EXACT TERMS OF THE DEAL STILL AREN’T KNOWN, APPARENTLY NOT EVEN BY THE FOLKS WHO MADE IT. ON SATURDAY, RUSSIA SAID IT WAS DROPPING ALL CHARGES AGAINST PRIGOZHIN. ON MONDAY, RUSSIA SAID THERE WAS STILL AN INVESTIGATION LOOKING INTO THE MERC’S MUTINY.

WHAT WE DO KNOW, TENTATIVELY, IS WAGNER FIGHTERS WILL BE GIVEN AMNESTY AND MOST INCORPORATED INTO THE RUSSIAN MILITARY. PRIGOZHIN IS NOW EXILED TO BELARUS. THE WAGNER LEADER WAS CHEERED WHEN HE LEFT ROSTOV. THE FIRST IMAGE OF PRIGOZHIN SINCE THE MUTINY WAS POSTED MONDAY ALONG WITH AN AUDIO RECORDING.

ACCORDING TO TRANSLATORS, PRIGOZHIN SAID HE STARTED HIS MARCH DUE TO INJUSTICE. HE SAID HIS FIGHTERS SHOWED NO AGGRESSION BUT DEFENDED THEMSELVES WHEN RUSSIAN HELICOPTERS ATTACKED. WAGNER FORCES SHOT DOWN SIX RUSSIAN HELICOPTERS AND A SPY PLANE DURING ITS LIGHTNING-FAST REBELLION.

AND THAT WILL BENEFIT UKRAINE. RUSSIAN AIR SUPERIORITY IS ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS THWARTING UKRAINE’S COUNTEROFFENSIVE. WITH FEWER RUSSIAN HELICOPTERS PROTECTING GROUND ASSETS, UKRAINE REPORTED IT MADE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT GAINS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE DONBAS, WHERE BAKHMUT IS LOCATED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THIS WAS ALSO THE PRIMARY AREA OF OPERATION FOR MOST WAGNER FIGHTERS. THOSE FORCES WERE PULLED OUT OF THE FIGHT WHEN THEIR LEADER ORDERED A MARCH ON MOSCOW.

THE IMMEDIATE IMPACTS OF PRIGOZHIN’S MUTINY ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE MAY PAIL IN COMPARISON TO THE LONG-TERM IMPACTS THOUGH. WAGNER FIGHTERS ARE SOME OF THE MOST EXPERIENCED FIGHTING FOR THE RUSSIAN SIDE, AND THERE ARE CLEARLY QUESTIONS OF LOYALTY AFTER SO MANY PARTICIPATED IN A MUTINY.

ALSO, SOME ELEMENTS WITHIN THE RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES JOINED WITH THE MUTINEERS, NOT GREAT FOR A COUNTRY TRYING TO BOOST MILITARY MORALE IN THE FACE OF MOUNTING BATTLEFIELD DEATHS.

THE FALLOUT FROM THE WEEKEND MUTINY IS STILL BEING SORTED THROUGH, BUT ONE THING IS CLEAR. PUTIN’S STRANGLEHOLD ON POWER ISN’T AS SOLID AS HE PROJECTED, AND EVEN THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE NOW KNOW THAT.

FOR MORE UNBIASED, STRAIGHT FACT REPORTING ON RUSSIA AND THE WAR IN UKRAINE, BE SURE TO CHECK OUT S-A-N DOT COM.