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FSB stops Ukrainian attempt to steal nuclear-capable bomber


A Russian pilot was reportedly offered $3 million to steal a bomber and defect to Ukraine, according to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). The FSB claimed it thwarted a Ukrainian attempt to hijack a Russian Tu-22M3 supersonic strategic bomber, disrupting the plan before it could unfold.

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Ukrainian intelligence allegedly tried to entice the pilot with a lucrative sum and the promise of Italian citizenship to defect and fly the missile-capable jet into Ukraine.

The Tu-22M3, known by NATO as “Backfire,” is pivotal in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, frequently used to launch Kh-22 cruise missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. In revealing the plot, the FSB presented evidence, including intercepted communications, suggesting NATO countries’ involvement in the scheme.

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The anonymous pilot reported being approached through Telegram, where an individual claiming to be from Ukrainian intelligence threatened his family and instructed him to reroute the aircraft. He was also pressured to provide sensitive information about Russian military planes, including their tail numbers, technical conditions and maintenance schedules.

Under intense pressure to betray his country, the pilot alerted his commanders, enabling Russian forces to execute a targeted strike on the Ozerne airfield in northwestern Ukraine. This incident highlights the ongoing espionage and counterintelligence efforts in the region.

In a related story, Russian pilot Maxim Kuzminov, who last year defected to Ukraine under similar circumstances, was found dead in Spain in February 2024.

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[Lauren Taylor]

A RUSSIAN PILOT WAS OFFERED 3 MILLION DOLLARS TO STEAL A BOMBER AND DEFECT TO RUSSIA.

RUSSIA’S FEDERAL SECURITY SERVICE DISRUPTED WHAT IT CLAIMS WAS A UKRAINIAN ATTEMPT TO HIJACK A RUSSIAN TU-22M3 SUPERSONIC STRATEGIC BOMBER. ACCORDING TO THE FSB, UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE TRIED TO ENTICE A RUSSIAN PILOT WITH $3 MILLION AND AN OFFER OF ITALIAN CITIZENSHIP TO DEFECT AND FLY THE MISSILE-CAPABLE JET INTO UKRAINE.

THE TU-22M3, REFERRED TO BY NATO AS “BACKFIRE,” IS A LONG-RANGE BOMBER CRITICAL TO THE ONGOING CONFLICT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE. IT’S FREQUENTLY USED TO LAUNCH KH-22 CRUISE MISSILES THAT CAN CARRY NUCLEAR WARHEADS.

THE FSB RELEASED EVIDENCE, INCLUDING INTERCEPTED COMMUNICATIONS, SUGGESTING THAT NATO COUNTRIES WERE INVOLVED IN PLANNING THIS OPERATION.

THE PILOT, WHO REMAINS ANONYMOUS, SAYS HE WAS APPROACHED THROUGH THE TELEGRAM MESSAGING APP. HE REPORTED THAT A PERSON CLAIMING TO BE FROM UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE THREATENED HIS FAMILY AND DIRECTED HIM TO REROUTE THE AIRCRAFT. HE WAS PRESSED FOR SENSITIVE DETAILS ABOUT RUSSIAN MILITARY PLANES, INCLUDING THEIR TAIL NUMBERS, TECHNICAL CONDITIONS, AND MAINTENANCE SCHEDULES.

FEELING PRESSURED TO BETRAY HIS COUNTRY, THE PILOT REPORTED THE APPROACH TO HIS COMMANDERS. THIS INTELLIGENCE ENABLED RUSSIAN FORCES TO CARRY OUT A TARGETED STRIKE ON THE OZERNE AIRFIELD IN NORTHWESTERN UKRAINE.

LAST YEAR, UKRAINIAN OFFICIALS CONVINCED RUSSIAN PILOT MAXIM KUZMINOV TO DEFECT, FLYING HIS HELICOPTER INTO UKRAINE. KUZMINOV WAS FOUND DEAD IN SPAIN THIS FEBRUARY.

FOR STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS, I’M LAUREN TAYLOR.

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U.S.

Alec Baldwin heads to trial in ‘Rust’ case


Nearly three years after the fatal shooting of cinematographer Halyna Hutchins on the set of the Western film “Rust,” producer and star Alec Baldwin is now facing trial. Baldwin has been charged with felony involuntary manslaughter, and if convicted, he could receive up to 18 months in prison.

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Baldwin claimed to be holding the gun when a live bullet discharged, killing Hutchins and wounding director Joel Souza. Baldwin previously stated that he did not intentionally pull the trigger and that the gun “went off.”

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“I’m the person who had the gun in the scene,” Baldwin told a police officer just moments after the shooting.

Jury selection begins Tuesday, July 9. Prosecutors will need to convince the 12-member jury that Baldwin was negligent in handling the firearm and acted with disregard for the safety of those around him. Court documents revealed that prosecutors have video footage showing Baldwin not following safety rules provided by Souza regarding gun handling on set.

Baldwin’s defense team aims to prove that it is not the actors’ responsibility to ensure that a live round is not in the gun and that live ammunition is banned from movie sets.

Witnesses previously stated that the crew was informed the gun was “cold,” meaning it did not contain a bullet and was only to be used as a prop.

Earlier this year, a jury convicted the film’s armorer, Hannah Gutierrez-Reed, of felony involuntary manslaughter, resulting in a maximum 18-month prison sentence.

As of now, it remains unclear whether Baldwin will take the stand in his defense. He is currently in Santa Fe, New Mexico, and is expected to appear in the courtroom.

The trial is anticipated to last nine days.

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[LAUREN TAYLOR]

NEARLY THREE YEARS AFTER THE FATAL SHOOTING OF CINEMATOGRAPHER HALYNA HUTCHINS ON THE SET OF WESTERN FILM “RUST” — PRODUCER AND STAR OF THE MOVIE — ALEC BALDWIN – IS HEADED TO TRIAL.

 

BALDWIN IS CHARGED WITH FELONY INVOLUNTARY MANSLAUGHTER – AND IF CONVICTED – COULD GET UP TO 18 MONTHS IN PRISON.

 

BALDWIN CLAIMED TO BE HOLDING THE GUN —WHEN A LIVE BULLET DISCHARGED– KILLING HUTCHINS AND WOUNDING DIRECTOR JOEL SOUZA.

 

BALDWIN HAS PREVIOUSLY CLAIMED HE DID NOT PULL THE TRIGGER AND THE GUN “WENT OFF”.

 

[BODY CAMERA]

OFFICER: “If it can wait sir?”

ALEC BALDWIN: “I’m the person who had the gun in the scene.”

OFFICER: “Yes, we’re going to talk to everybody in a sec. We’re getting these guys treated. We’re securing the scene and then we’ll get with you guys in a sec.

 

[LAUREN TAYLOR]

JURY SELECTION BEGINS TUESDAY.

 

PROSECUTORS WILL HAVE TO CONVINCE THE 12-MEMBER JURY THAT BALDWIN WAS NEGLIGENT IN USING THE FIREARM AND THAT HE ACTED WITH DISREGARD IN THE SAFETY OF THOSE AROUND HIM.

 

IN COURT DOCUMENTS, PROSECUTORS ARGUE THEY HAVE VIDEO FOOTAGE OF BALDWIN NOT FOLLOWING SAFETY RULES GIVEN BY DIRECTOR SOUZA — IN HANDLING THE GUN ON SET.

 

BALDWIN’S DEFENSE TEAM WILL TRY TO PROVE THAT IT’S NOT THE ACTORS’ JOB TO MAKE SURE A LIVE ROUND IS NOT IN THE GUN – AND THAT LIVE AMMUNITION IS BANNED FROM MOVIE SETS.

 

WITNESSES HAD ALSO PREVIOUSLY SAID THE CREW WAS TOLD THE GUN WAS “COLD” – MEANING IT DID NOT CONTAIN A BULLET AND WAS ONLY TO BE USED AS A PROP.

 

EARLIER THIS YEAR, A JURY CONVICTED THE FILM’S ARMORER – HANNAH GUTIERREZ-REED – OF FELONY INVOLUNTARY MANSLAUGHTER AND SHE WAS SENTENCED TO THE MAXIMUM – 18 MONTHS IN PRISON.

 

AT THIS TIME, IT’S UNCLEAR IF BALDWIN WILL TAKE THE STAND IN HIS DEFENSE. HE IS IN SANTA FE, NEW MEXICO AND HE’S EXPECTED IN THE COURTROOM.

 

THE TRIAL IS EXPECTED TO LAST NINE DAYS.

 

FOR SAN, I’M LAUREN TAYLOR… FOR MORE UNBIASED, STRAIGHT FACTS –

DOWNLOAD THE SAN APP OR VISIT SAN.COM

Business

Boeing to plead guilty to fraud after fatal 737 Max crashes


Boeing agreed late Sunday, July 7, to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge related to two deadly crashes involving its 737 Max jets. With the guilty plea, Boeing will be labeled a criminal felon, potentially jeopardizing the company’s ability to secure government contracts.

As part of the plea agreement with the Department of Justice, Boeing will pay an additional $243.6 million fine, on top of a previously paid $243 million fine.

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Boeing has also agreed to invest at least $455 million in safety and compliance programs.

The plea deal comes after the DOJ found that Boeing violated a 2021 agreement to implement safety changes following the crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia in 2018 and 2019, which killed 346 people.

The plea deal still requires a judge’s approval. Families of the victims say they will ask the judge to reject the deal, as they prefer Boeing to face a trial and harsher penalties.

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[KARAH RUCKER]

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT – BOEING AGREED TO PLEAD GUILTY TO A CRIMINAL FRAUD CONSPIRACY CHARGE IN CONNECTION TO TWO DEADLY PLANE CRASHES INVOLVING ITS 737 MAX JETS.

WITH THE GUILTY PLEA – BOEING WILL BE BRANDED A CRIMINAL FELON WHICH COULD JEOPARDIZE THE COMPANY’S ABILITY TO SECURE GOVERNMENT CONTRACTS.

AS PART OF THE PLEA AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE – BOEING WILL PAY AN ADDITIONAL 243 POINT 6 MILLION DOLLAR FINE – ON TOP OF A PREVIOUS 243 MILLION DOLLAR FINE THE COMPANY HAS ALREADY PAID.

AND BOEING HAS ALSO AGREED TO INVEST AT LEAST 455 MILLION DOLLARS IN SAFETY AND COMPLIANCE PROGRAMS.

THE PLEA DEAL FOLLOWS THE DOJ’S FINDINGS THAT BOEING BREACHED A 20-21 AGREEMENT TO MAKE SAFETY CHANGES FOLLOWING THE TWO CRASHES IN INDONESIA AND ETHiOPIA IN 20-18 AND 20-19 THAT KILLED 346 PEOPLE.

THE PLEA DEAL STILL REQUIRES A JUDGE’S APPROVAL.

FAMILIES OF THE VICTIMS OF THOSE FATAL CRASHES SAY THEY WILL ASK THE JUDGE TO REJECT THE DEAL – AS THEY WANT BOEING TO FACE A TRIAL AND HARSHER PENALTIES.

Tech

NASA volunteers complete yearlong Mars simulation


Four NASA volunteers concluded a yearlong Mars simulation at Houston’s Johnson Space Center on Saturday, July 6, as part of the agency’s first Crew Health and Performance Exploration Analog (CHAPEA) mission. Stationed in a 3D-printed, 1,700-square-foot habitat since June 25, 2023, crew members Kelly Haston, Anca Selariu, Ross Brockwell and Nathan Jones endured conditions similar to those expected on Mars.

https://twitter.com/NASA_Johnson/status/1809709743147217251

The CHAPEA project focused on sustainability and the role of nutrition in space travel.

https://twitter.com/NASA_Johnson/status/1809693957233717714

The team conducted “Marswalks,” grew vegetables to enhance their diet and managed equipment under the additional stressors of communication delays, resource limitations and isolation.

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This mission, focusing on sustainability and nutrition’s role in space travel, is a precursor to NASA’s upcoming Artemis campaign aimed at a return to the Moon for prolonged scientific research and exploration. Insights gained from lunar missions are intended to prepare NASA for its next major endeavor — sending astronauts to Mars.

NASA has also announced plans for two more CHAPEA missions. The next is scheduled to commence in the first half of 2025.

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[KARAH RUCKER]

FINALLY THIS MORNING —

FOUR NASA VOLUNTEERS EMERGED FROM A YEAR-LONG MARS SIMULATION AT HOUSTON’S JOHNSON SPACE CENTER, TESTING LIFE ON THE RED PLANET WITHOUT EVER LEAVING EARTH.

INSIDE A 3D-PRINTED 1,7000 SQUARE-FOOT HABITAT FOR 378 DAYS, THE CREW TACKLED CHALLENGES LIKE ISOLATION, RESOURCE LIMITS AND EVEN CONDUCTED SIMULATED SPACEWALKS —  MIMICKING WHAT A REAL MARS MISSION WOULD FEEL LIKE.

NASA HAS ANNOUNCED PLANS FOR TWO MORE SIMULATED “MARS” MISSIONS — WITH THE NEXT SET TO BEGIN IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2025.

The Morning Rundown™

Top House Democrats call for Biden to step aside in private meeting


President Joe Biden’s first broadcast interview following the debate leaves top House Democrats still seeking a change. And, Hurricane Beryl makes landfall in Texas, bringing dangerous winds and rain along the coast. These stories and more highlight The Morning Rundown for Monday, July 8, 2024.

Several House Democrats call for Biden to step aside during private meeting

President Joe Biden hoped his first broadcast interview since his poor debate performance would reassure his own party and establish a consensus that he is the best candidate to face former President Donald Trump in November’s election.

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However, following the interview, top Democratic members of the House are aligning in their belief that Biden should withdraw from the race.

House Democrats, convened by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in a virtual private meeting Sunday, July 7, discussed how to persuade the president to step aside as their party’s candidate, according to multiple attendees.

During the meeting, several ranking committee members expressed that Biden should end his campaign. Some of the attendees included were Reps. Jerrold Nadler and Joseph Morelle of New York, Adam Smith of Washington and Mark Takano of California.

Rep. Susan Wild, D-Penn., released a statement post-meeting, sharing her concerns about Biden’s electability, which she noted aligns with worries of Americans nationwide.

Despite this, some Democratic lawmakers are standing by the president. Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va., affirmed his support for Biden, and Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass., praised him as “a visionary,” encouraging the party to persist with his candidacy.

https://twitter.com/RepRichardNeal/status/1810072386701566307

In an ABC News interview on Friday, July 5, when Biden was questioned about Democratic leaders potentially asking him to step aside, he expressed confidence in his support within the party.

“If the Lord Almighty came down and said, ‘Joe, get out of the race,’ I’d get out of the race,” Biden said. “But that’s not going to happen.”

Also in the ABC interview, Biden was asked whether he would undergo an independent medical examination including cognitive tests. He responded that he faces a cognitive test with his duties as president every day. On Sunday, July 7, James Comer, the Republican chair of the House Oversight Committee, requested Biden’s personal physician testify about the president’s health.

Left-wing alliance wins most seats in French election, fails to secure majority

With just weeks to go until it hosts the Summer Olympics, France faced uncertainty Monday, July 8, after the second round of legislative elections ended Sunday, July 7, without any party winning an absolute majority, resulting in a hung parliament.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1810177131718029559

The left-wing alliance, called the New Popular Front, secured the most seats in the French Parliament. Formed just in June, the alliance won 182 seats. This was far short of the 289 needed for a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance won 163 seats, while the far-right National Rally trailed with 143 seats. These results were unexpected, as the National Rally was anticipated to be the big winner following a strong performance in the previous round.

Macron, who plans to remain in office until 2027, called for these snap elections hoping to provide France with a “moment of clarity.” However, Macron has work cut out for him. His prime minister announced his resignation on July 8, but Macron rejected it, as the French president faces the challenge of governing with a deeply divided government.

Boeing to plead guilty to fraud after fatal 737 crashes

Boeing agreed late Sunday, July 7, to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge related to two deadly crashes involving its 737 Max jets. With the guilty plea, Boeing will be labeled a criminal felon, potentially jeopardizing the company’s ability to secure government contracts.

As part of the plea agreement with the Department of Justice, Boeing will pay an additional $243.6 million fine, on top of a previously paid $243 million fine.

Boeing has also agreed to invest at least $455 million in safety and compliance programs.

The plea deal comes after the DOJ found that Boeing violated a 2021 agreement to implement safety changes following the crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia in 2018 and 2019, which killed 346 people.

The plea deal still requires a judge’s approval. Families of the victims say they will ask the judge to reject the deal, as they prefer Boeing to face a trial and harsher penalties.

Beryl makes landfall as Category 1 hurricane

Hurricane Beryl made landfall as a Category 1 storm southwest of Houston, Texas, early Monday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. Beryl packed winds of 80 miles per hour, with even stronger gusts.

More than 80,000 Texans have already lost power.

As Beryl moves further inland across eastern Texas, it’s bringing heavy rain, storm surges, possible tornadoes and strong winds.

The area could see rainfall between 5 to 10 inches, with some spots possibly getting up to 15 inches.

Beryl is expected to quickly downgrade to a tropical storm and weaken further to a tropical depression by the time it reaches Arkansas on Tuesday, July 9.

Paramount, Skydance agree to merger creating new $28B company

Paramount Global and Skydance Media have reached an agreement to merge after months of negotiations, creating a new company valued at $28 billion.

Before the merger, Skydance Media will pay $2.4 billion in cash to acquire a controlling stake in Paramount, which includes Paramount Pictures, the broadcast network CBS, and cable networks like MTV and Nickelodeon.

This merger marks the end of an era for Paramount, a media giant that has been run by the Redstone family for decades.

David Ellison, the son of Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison and founder of Skydance, will become the chairman and CEO of the new Paramount.

The agreement includes a 45-day period during which Paramount’s board can seek a better deal if possible.

NASA volunteers complete year-long Mars simulation

Four NASA volunteers completed a year-long Mars simulation at Houston’s Johnson Space Center, testing life on the Red Planet without leaving Earth.

Inside a 3D-printed 1,7000 square-foot habitat for 378 days, the crew tackled challenges like isolation, resource limits and even conducted simulated spacewalks mimicking what a real Mars mission would feel like. 

https://twitter.com/NASA_Johnson/status/1809709743147217251

The Crew Health and Performance Exploration Analog (CHAPEA) project focused on sustainability and the role of nutrition in space travel.

NASA has announced plans for two more CHAPEA missions, the first of which is scheduled to start in the first half of 2025. 

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[KARAH]

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: If you can be convinced that you cannot defeat Donald Trump, will you stand down?

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: (LAUGH)- It depends on– on if the Lord Almighty comes down and tells me that, I might do that.

PRESIDENT BIDEN’S FIRST BROADCAST INTERVIEW AFTER THE DEBATE LEAVES TOP DEMOCRATS STILL SEEKING A CHANGE

AND — HURRICANE BERYL MAKES LANDFALL IN TEXAS — BRINGING DANGEROUS WINDS AND RAINS ALONG THE COAST

THE MORNING RUNDOWN STARTS NOW.

TODAY IS MONDAY, JULY 8TH

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

I’M KARAH RUCKER.

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN HOPED HIS FIRST BROADCAST INTERVIEW SINCE the first presidential debate WOULD RELIEVE WORRY IN HIS OWN PARTY AND CREATE A CONSENSUS THAT HE IS THE RIGHT MAN TO TAKE ON FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IN NOVEMBER’S ELECTION.

but FOLLOWING THE INTERVIEW —  TOP DEMOCRATIC MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE ARE reportedly BANDING TOGETHER – IN THEIR BELIEF THAT BIDEN SHOULD DROP OUT OF THE RACE.

HOUSE DEMOCRATS HELD A VIRTUAL PRIVATE MEETING SUNDAY – BROUGHT TOGETHER BY MINORITY LEADER HAKEEM JEFFRIES – AND ACCORDING TO MULTIPLE PEOPLE WHO ATTENDED – THEY DISCUSSED HOW TO GET THE PRESIDENT TO AGREE TO STEP ASIDE AS THEIR PARTY’S CANDIDATE.

FOUR NAMES ARE BEING REPORTED WHO SPOKE OUT DURING THE MEETING TO SAY THAT BIDEN SHOULD END HIS CAMPAIGN — CONGRESSMEN JERROLD NADLER AND JOSEPH MORELLE OF NEW YORK,  ADAM SMITH OF WASHINGTON, AND MARK TAKANO OF CALIFORNIA.

EACH A RANKING COMMITTEE MEMBER.

CONGRESSWOMAN SUSAN WILD OF PENNSYLVANIA RELEASED A STATEMENT AFTER THE MEETING – SAYING  SHE “EXPRESSED THE SAME CONCERNS THAT AMERICANS ACROSS THE COUNTRY ARE GRAPPLING WITH, ABOUT PRESIDENT BIDEN’S ELECTABILITY AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET.”

SOME DEMOCRATIC LAWMAKERS HOWEVER SAY THEY ARE STICKING WITH THE PRESIDENT – CONGRESSMAN DON BEYER OF VIRGINIA saying he SUPPORTs BIDEN AND RICHARD NEAL OF MASSACHUSETTS CALLING BIDEN “A VISIONARY” – ADDING “LET’S KEEP GOING!”

DURING THE INTERVIEW WITH ABC NEWS ON FRIDAY – PRESIDENT BIDEN WAS ASKED ABOUT BEING CONFRONTED BY DEMOCRATIC LEADERS TO STEP ASIDE.

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: And if Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries and Nancy Pelosi come down and say, “We’re worried that if you stay in the race, we’re gonna lose the House and the Senate,” how will you respond?

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: I– I’d go into detail with them. I’ve speaken (PH) to all of them in detail including Jim Clyburn, every one of ’em. They all said I should stay in the race– stay in the race. No one said– none of the people said I should leave.

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: But if they do?

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: Well, it’s, like, (LAUGH) they’re not gonna do that.

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: You’re sure?

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: Well, Yeah, I’m sure. Look. I mean, if the Lord Almighty came down and said, “Joe, get outta the race,” I’d get outta the race. The Lord Almighty’s not comin‘ down.

[KARAH]

ALSO IN THE ABC INTERVIEW – THE PRESIDENT WAS ASKED IF HE WOULD BE WILLING TO TAKE AN INDEPENDENT MEDICAL EXAMINATION INCLUDING COGNITIVE TESTS. BIDEN REPLIED HE HAS A COGNITIVE TEST WITH HIS DUTIES AS PRESIDENT EVERY DAY.  ON SUNDAY — JAMES COMER – THE REPUBLICAN CHAIR OF THE HOUSE OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE — REQUESTED BIDEN’S PERSONAL PHYSICIAN TESTIFY ABOUT THE PRESIDENT’S HEALTH.

WITH JUST WEEKS TO GO UNTIL IT HOSTS THE SUMMER OLYMPICS — FRANCE WOKE UP TODAY WITH SOME UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ABOUT ITS GOVERNMENT AFTER THE SECOND ROUND OF LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS ENDED SUNDAY.

NO PARTY WON AN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY AND THE COUNTRY NOW FACES A HUNG PARLIAMENT.

IT WAS THE LEFT-WING ALLIANCE — CALLED THE NEW POPULAR FRONT — THAT SECURED THE MOST SEATS IN THE FRENCH PARLIAMENT.

THE PARTY THAT JUST CAME TOGETHER LAST MONTH – PICKING UP 182 SEATS – BUT FAR SHORT OF THE 289 NEEDED TO SECURE A MAJORITY IN THE 577-SEAT NATIONAL ASSEMBLY.

PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON AND HIS CENTRIST ENSEMBLE ALLIANCE WON 163 SEATS

AND THE FAR-RIGHT PARTY NATIONAL RALLY TRAILED BEHIND — WINNING 143.

THESE RESULTS CAME AS A SURPRISE — AS THE NATIONAL PARTY WAS EXPECTED TO BE THE BIG WINNER – AFTER A STRONG SHOWING IN THE FIRST ROUND LAST WEEK.

MACRON – WHO HAS SAID HE WILL REMAIN IN OFFICE UNTIL 20-27 – CALLED FOR THESE SNAP ELECTIONS IN HOPES OF GIVING FRANCE A QUOTE “MOMENT OF CLARITY.”

BUT MACRON NOW HAS HIS WORK CUT OUT FOR HIM  — HIS PRIME MINISTER ANNOUNCING HIS RESIGNATION TODAY – BUT MACRON REFUSING TO ACCEPT IT — ASKING HIM TO STAY ON AS MACRON FACES A DEEPLY DIVIDED GOVERNMENT.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT – BOEING AGREED TO PLEAD GUILTY TO A CRIMINAL FRAUD CONSPIRACY CHARGE IN CONNECTION TO TWO DEADLY PLANE CRASHES INVOLVING ITS 737 MAX JETS.

WITH THE GUILTY PLEA – BOEING WILL BE BRANDED A CRIMINAL FELON WHICH COULD JEOPARDIZE THE COMPANY’S ABILITY TO SECURE GOVERNMENT CONTRACTS.

AS PART OF THE PLEA AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE – BOEING WILL PAY AN ADDITIONAL 243 POINT 6 MILLION DOLLAR FINE – ON TOP OF A PREVIOUS 243 MILLION DOLLAR FINE THE COMPANY HAS ALREADY PAID.

AND BOEING HAS ALSO AGREED TO INVEST AT LEAST 455 MILLION DOLLARS IN SAFETY AND COMPLIANCE PROGRAMS.

THE PLEA DEAL FOLLOWS THE DOJ’S FINDINGS THAT BOEING BREACHED A 20-21 AGREEMENT TO MAKE SAFETY CHANGES FOLLOWING THE TWO CRASHES IN INDONESIA AND ETHIOPIA IN 20-18 AND 20-19 THAT KILLED 346 PEOPLE.

THE PLEA DEAL STILL REQUIRES A JUDGE’S APPROVAL.

FAMILIES OF THE VICTIMS OF THOSE FATAL CRASHES SAY THEY WILL ASK THE JUDGE TO REJECT THE DEAL – AS THEY WANT BOEING TO FACE A TRIAL AND HARSHER PENALTIES.

[TAKE VO]

BERYL MAKES LANDFALL AS CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE

early this morning —

HURRICANE BERYL MADE LANDFALL SOUTH WEST OF HOUSTON TEXAS — AS A CATEGORY 1 STORM.

that’s aCCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

BERYL PACKED WINDS OF 80 MILEs PER HOUR, WITH GUSTS EVEN STRONGER.

MORE THAN 80-THOUSAND TEXANS hAVE ALREADY LOST POWER.

AS BERYL MOVES FURTHER INLAND ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS, IT’S BRINGING HEAVY RAIN, STORM SURGES, POSSIBLE TORNADOES, AND STRONG WINDS.

THE AREA COULD SEE RAINFALL BETWEEN 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING UP TO 15 INCHES.

BERYL IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DOWNGRADE TO A TROPICAL STORM AND WEAKEN FURTHER TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY MORNING.

 

AFTER MONTHS OF NEGOTIATIONS – PARAMOUNT GLOBAL AND SKYDANCE MEDIA HAVE ANNOUNCED A DEAL TO MERGE.

BEFORE BECOMING ONE COMPANY — SKYDANCE MEDIA WILL PAY 2 POINT 4 BILLION DOLLARS IN CASH TO ACQUIRE A CONTROLLING STAKE IN PARAMOUNT – THE HOME OF THE MOVIE STUDIO PARAMOUNT PICTURES – THE BROADCAST NETWORK CBS, AND CABLE NETWORKS LIKE MTV AND NICKELODEON.

THIS MARKS THE END OF an ERA FOR PARAMOUNT – THE MEDIA GIANT HAS BEEN RUNNing FOR DECADES.

SKYDANCE FOUNDER DAVID ELLISON —  THE SON OF ORACLE’S CO-FOUNDER LARRY ELLISION – WILL BECOME CHAIRMAN AND CEO OF THE NEW PARAMOUNT — WHICH IS VALUED AT 28 BILLION DOLLARS.

THE AGREEMENT INCLUDES A 45-DAY PERIOD THAT GIVES PARAMOUNT’S BOARD AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEEK A BETTER DEAL IF POSSIBLE.

FINALLY THIS MORNING —

FOUR NASA VOLUNTEERS EMERGED FROM A YEAR-LONG MARS SIMULATION AT HOUSTON’S JOHNSON SPACE CENTER, TESTING LIFE ON THE RED PLANET WITHOUT EVER LEAVING EARTH.

INSIDE A 3D-PRINTED 1,7000 SQUARE-FOOT HABITAT FOR 378 DAYS, THE CREW TACKLED CHALLENGES LIKE ISOLATION, RESOURCE LIMITS AND EVEN CONDUCTED SIMULATED SPACEWALKS —  MIMICKING WHAT A REAL MARS MISSION WOULD FEEL LIKE.

NASA HAS ANNOUNCED PLANS FOR TWO MORE SIMULATED “MARS” MISSIONS — WITH THE NEXT SET TO BEGIN IN THE FIRST HALF OF 20-25.

THESE ARE YOUR TOP STORIES FOR THIS MONDAY.

WE’LL SEE YOU BACK HERE TOMORROW.

UNTIL THEN I’M KARAH RUCKER. HAVE A GREAT DAY!

Ray Bogan Political Correspondent
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Politics

Disney heiress, other mega donors won’t finance DNC until Biden drops out

Ray Bogan Political Correspondent
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The Democratic Party is not the happiest place right now. Mega-donors are withholding funds in the wake of President Joe Biden’s debate performance and they’re going public with their decision. 

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Those donors include Abigail Disney, a granddaughter of Disney co-founder Roy Disney, who said she intends to stop all contributions to the party until President Biden is replaced at the top of the ticket. She said Vice President Kamala Harris is a viable alternative. 

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“If Biden does not step down, the Democrats will lose,” Disney said in a statement to CNBC. “Of that I am absolutely certain. The consequences for the loss will be genuinely dire.” 

Disney has made six-figure donations to Democrats and progressive causes during previous election cycles. 

On Wednesday, July 3, Netflix founder Reid Hastings told The New York Times Biden needs to step aside. 

Moriah Fund President Gideon Stein is also withholding more than $3 million in donations.

“Joe Biden has been a very effective president, but unless he steps aside my family and I are pausing on more than $3 million in planned donations to nonprofits and political organizations aligned with the presidential race, with the exception of some down-ballot work,” Stein told CNBC. 

That aligns with Endeavor CEO Ari Emanuel’s view. 

“I talked to a bunch of big donors and they’re moving all their money to Congress and the Senate,” Emaneul said at the Aspen Ideas forum. “I mean, I cannot believe we’re in this situation.”

Stein added that nearly every major donor he spoke to thinks they need to replace Biden in order to defeat Donald Trump. Others who have donated up to eight figures during this election cycle and previous ones have agreed to pausing donations. 

On the Fourth of July, Biden said he isn’t going anywhere. His campaign had strong fundraising in June. Supporters gave $127 million, including $38 million in the three days after the debate. 

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[RAY BOGAN]

The Democratic party is not the happiest place on earth right now. Mega-donors are withholding funds in the wake of President Biden’s poor debate performance. 

That includes Abigail Disney, granddaughter of Disney co-founder Roy Disney, who said she intends to stop all contributions to the party until President Biden is replaced at the top of the ticket. 

She said Vice President Kamala Harris is a viable alternative. 

In a statement to CNBC, Disney said: “If Biden does not step down the Democrats will lose. Of that I am absolutely certain. The consequences for the loss will be genuinely dire.” 

Disney has made six figure donations to Democrats and progressive causes during previous election cycles. 

On Wednesday, Netflix founder Reid Hastings told the New York Times Biden needs to step aside. 

The President has also lost support of much of the media – exhibit A – the latest cover of The Economist. 

Moriah Fund President Gideon Stein is also withholding more than three million dollars in donations. Stein told CNBC: “Joe Biden has been a very effective president, but unless he steps aside my family and I are pausing on more than $3 million in planned donations to nonprofits and political organizations aligned with the presidential race, with the exception of some down ballot work.” 

That aligns with Endeavor CEO Ari Emanuel’s view. 

Ari Emanuel:

I talked to a bunch of bid donors and they’re moving all their money to Congress and the Senate. I mean I cannot believe we’re in this situation.” 

[RAY BOGAN]

Stein added that nearly every major donor he’s spoken to thinks they need to replace Biden in order to defeat Trump. There are others who have donated six, seven, even eight figures during this election cycle and previous election cycles, who agree to pausing donations. 

Biden said on the Fourth of July that he isn’t going anywhere. His campaign had strong fundraising in June. Supporters gave $127 million, including $38 million in the three days after the debate. 

For more unbiased reporting on the 2024 election, download the straight arrow news app.

Energy

Giant clams could hold the key to more efficient solar power advancements


Researchers at Yale University are exploring how the natural adaptations of giant clams might lead to improvements in solar energy technology. These mollusks use photosynthesis to gain energy from symbiotic algae that live in their cells. It is an efficient process that the Yale team hopes to study and see whether that knowledge can translate into making solar energy infrastructure more efficient.

“The truth is that clams are more efficient at solar energy conversion than any existing solar panel technology,” said Alison Sweeney, an associate professor of physics and of ecology and evolutionary biology in Yale’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences.

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Giant clams maximize their sunlight intake through a unique process that involves adjusting the spacing of algae clusters according to changing light conditions. This method intrigued scientists, who believe it could be the key to making solar energy infrastructure more efficient.

Currently, large solar farms capture around 25% of the sun’s available energy at any given moment. However, the Yale team’s research suggests that the clams’ method of solar energy capture could achieve efficiency rates as high as 67%.

Their secret lies in what researchers describe as the clams’ “optimized geometry.” The algae within the clams are arranged in narrow columns. That allows each algal cell to experience nearly the same light intensity. This setup ensures that all the cells work simultaneously to capture the maximum amount of solar energy.

The clams can rearrange the spacing between these columns based on the sunlight’s availability. In bright conditions, the columns are spaced wider to harness more energy. However, in low light, they are condensed to maintain high efficiency.

“Clams like to move and groove throughout the day,” Sweeney said. “This stretching moves the vertical columns farther apart, effectively making them shorter and wider. One could envision a new generation of solar panels that grow algae, or inexpensive plastic solar panels that are made out of a stretchy material.”

This adaptive mechanism can be at least 10 times more efficient than other photosynthetic models. The mechanism also offers a new perspective on how solar energy systems could be designed. The Yale researchers hope that these findings can eventually be applied to solar manufacturing. New designs could potentially lead to more efficient and adaptable solar panels.

[JACK AYLMER]

CLAMS.

THEY’RE GREAT FOR EATING.

AND FOR FILTERING POLLUTANTS OUT OF OUR BAYS AND RIVERS. 

BUT NOW – RESEARCHERS HAVE THEIR SIGHTS SET ON THESE MOLLUSKS FOR A DIFFERENT REASON.

SOLAR POWER.

LET ME SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE SUBJECT.  

GIANT CLAMS USE PHOTOSYNTHESIS TO GAIN ENERGY FROM SYMBIOTIC ALGAE THAT LIVE IN THEIR CELLS.

AND OVER THE COURSE OF CENTURIES – THEY’VE DEVELOPED WAYS TO MAXIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF SUNLIGHT THEY TAKE IN-

SOMETIMES ADJUSTING THE ALGAE CLUSTERS’ SPACING ACCORDING TO CHANGING LIGHT CONDITIONS.

IT’S A PROCESS BEING STUDIED AT YALE UNIVERSITY.

RESEARCHERS WANT TO SEE IF THEY CAN TRANSLATE THEIR FINDINGS INTO MORE VIABLE INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SOLAR ENERGY. 

[ALISON SWEENEY]

One of the big problems with this is just how hard it is to make photosynthesis space efficient and the clam has exactly perfectly physically solved that problem.

[JACK AYLMER]

LARGE SOLAR FARMS CAN CURRENTLY CAPTURE AROUND 25 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL ENERGY AVAILABLE FROM THE SUN AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT.

BUT BY USING A THEORETICAL MODEL FROM THEIR FINDINGS-

THE YALE TEAM BELIEVES THESE CREATURES HAVE A SOLAR EFFICIENCY RATE AS HIGH AS 67 PERCENT.

A DISCOVERY THEY HOPE SOLAR MANUFACTURERS CAN ONE DAY TAP INTO.

GIANT CLAMS ARE ABLE TO TAKE IN SO MUCH SUNLIGHT BECAUSE OF WHAT RESEARCHERS DESCRIBE AS AN OPTIMIZED GEOMETRY.

THEY ARRANGE THE ALGAE WITHIN THEM INTO NARROW COLUMNS-

WHICH ALLOWS EACH ALGAL CELL TO EXPERIENCE NEARLY THE SAME LIGHT INTENSITY-

SO THEY’RE ALL WORKING TO CAPTURE THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SOLAR ENERGY AT THE SAME TIME.

THE SPACING BETWEEN THESE COLUMNS CAN THEN BE REARRANGED BY THE CLAM BASED ON HOW MUCH SUNLIGHT IS AVAILABLE.

IF THERE’S A LOT OF LIGHT THE COLUMNS CAN BE SPACED OUT WIDER TO HARNESS MORE OF THAT ENERGY.

AND IF THERE ISN’T MUCH LIGHT, THE CLAM CAN CONDENSE THE COLUMNS SO THEY CAN ALL WORK AT THE SAME CAPACITY TO CAPTURE WHAT IS AVAILABLE.

[ALISON SWEENEY]

The clams have this truly optimal system that for any one light intensity as the sunrises and sunsets gives a perfect dose of light to the algae in these columns.

[JACK AYLMER]

THIS SETUP THAT CAN BE AT LEAST 10 TIMES MORE EFFICIENT THAN OTHER PHOTOSYNTHETIC MODELS.

AND IT’S ONE THAT COULD HELP INFORM DECISIONS ABOUT HOW HUMANS GENERATE SOLAR POWER IN THE FUTURE.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT RENEWABLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS LIKE THIS ONE, DOWNLOAD THE STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS APP AND SIGN UP FOR ALERTS FROM ME – JACK AYLMER – SO I CAN BRING YOU THE LATEST. 

Politics

New York City to expand prepaid debit card program for migrant families


New York City plans to provide prepaid debit cards to 7,300 migrant families with children staying at city-run shelters. The program began in March when the city distributed 3,000 debit cards to migrants, allowing them to purchase essentials like food and baby products from approved grocery stores and bodegas.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams, D, announced that the program is in partnership with Mobility Capital Finance. The initial pilot program cost the city $53 million.

These debit cards replace a meal program that previously provided boxed food to asylum-seeking families staying at hotels, which have now been converted to migrant shelters across New York City. Officials estimate that the debit cards will save New York City taxpayers $4.5 million this year.

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The exact amount each family will receive remains unclear. According to The New York Times, a migrant family of four with children can receive about $350 a week, depending on other income.

The city’s deputy mayor for Health and Human Services considers the pilot debit card program a success, emphasizing that it gives asylum seekers the autonomy to make choices for themselves and their children.

However, critics, including Republican New York City Councilman Joseph Borelli, argue that the city-funded cards are unfair to low-income New Yorkers who don’t receive similar benefits.

“We’re just giving this migrant population more free stuff at the expense of New York City taxpayers,” Borelli stated.

With over 180,000 migrants seeking asylum in New York City in the last year, some Republicans believe that additional handouts will attract more undocumented immigrants to the city. The city has already spent more than a billion dollars addressing the migrant crisis.

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NEW YORK CITY IS GOING TO BE GIVING OUT MORE PREPAID DEBIT CARDS TO 7,300 MIGRANT FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN STAYING AT CITY-RUN SHELTERS.

THE PROGRAM STARTED THREE MONTHS AGO – WHEN THE CITY DISTRIBUTED 3,000 DEBIT CARDS TO MIGRANTS – ALLOWING THEM TO PURCHASE ESSENTIALS – LIKE FOOD AND BABY PRODUCTS – FROM APPROVED GROCERY STORES AND BODEGAS.

NEW YORK CITY MAYOR ERIC ADAMS’ OFFICE SAID THE CITY IS PARTNERED WITH MOBILITY CAPITAL FINANCE TO DISTRIBUTE THE “IMMEDIATE RESPONSE CARDS” – THE INITIAL PILOT PROGRAM COST THE CITY $53-MILLION DOLLARS.

THE DEBIT CARDS REPLACE A MEAL PROGRAM THAT PROVIDED BOX FOODS TO ASYLUM SEEKING FAMILIES – STAYING AT HOTELS, NOW CONVERTED TO MIGRANT SHELTERS ACROSS NEW YORK CITY – AND OFFICIALS HAVE SAID THE DEBIT CARDS WILL SAVE NEW YORK CITY TAXPAYERS $4.5 MILLION DOLLARS THIS YEAR.

IT’S UNCLEAR HOW MUCH EACH FAMILY WILL RECEIVE. THE NEW YORK TIMES REPORTS – A MIGRANT FAMILY OF FOUR WITH CHILDREN CAN RECEIVE ABOUT $350 A WEEK – DEPENDING ON OTHER INCOME.

THE CITY’S DEPUTY MAYOR FOR HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES CALLED THE CITY’S PILOT DEBIT CARD PROGRAM A “SUCCESS” – SAYING IT GIVES ASYLUM SEEKERS A CHANCE TO “MAKE CHOICES FOR THEMSELVES AND THEIR CHILDREN.”

HOWEVER, CRITICS OF THE PROGRAM – LIKE REPUBLICAN NEW YORK CITY COUNCILMAN JOSEPH BORELLI – SAY THE CITY-FUNDED CARDS ARE UNFAIR TO LOW INCOME NEW YORKERS WHO DON’T RECEIVE SIMILAR BENEFITS.

JOSEPH BORELLI / NYC COUNCIL MEMBER:

“WE’RE JUST GIVING THIS MIGRANT POPULATION MORE FREE STUFF AT THE EXPENSE OF NEW YORK CITY TAXPAYERS.”

LAUREN TAYLOR:

MORE THAN 180-THOUSAND MIGRANTS SEEKING ASYLUM HAVE WOUND UP IN NEW YORK CITY IN THE LAST YEAR – LEADING REPUBLICANS TO ARGUE THAT MORE HANDOUTS WILL DRAW MORE UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS TO THE CITY – WHEN THE CITY HAS ALREADY SPENT MORE THAN A BILLION DOLLARS ON THE MIGRANT CRISIS.

FOR SAN, I’M LT..

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Energy

China’s BYD to build $1B plant in Turkey as increased EU tariffs kick in


As the European Union (EU) prepares to officially implement increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), Beijing-backed automaker BYD is making moves that may mitigate the impact of these new duty rates. BYD reportedly has plans to build a new $1 billion EV plant in Turkey, a candidate country for EU membership.

The official announcement of this deal is expected on Monday, July 8, from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but the news has already led to speculation that establishing a manufacturing presence in Turkey could help BYD soften the financial blow from the EU’s heightened tariffs.

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Turkey’s customs union agreement with the EU might allow BYD to reduce the financial impact of the new tariffs, facilitating the entry of their vehicles into the European market at more competitive prices. Ankara, Turkey’s capital, further incentivized BYD by dropping a recently imposed 50% tariff on Chinese EVs, a figure higher than the EU’s newly raised duty rate, in a move aimed at securing BYD’s investment.

This development comes just a day after the automaker continued its global expansion elsewhere in the world. Earlier this week, BYD opened its first EV factory in Thailand, where it already commands nearly 50% of the EV market.

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[JACK AYLMER]

CHEAPER CHINESE ELECTRIC VEHICLES MIGHT BE COMING TO EUROPE-

WHETHER THE EU WANTS THEM THERE OR NOT.

JUST AS THE BLOC’S INCREASED TARIFFS ON CHINESE EVS ARE SET TO TAKE EFFECT-

BEIJING BACKED AUTOMAKER B-Y-D HAS REVEALED PLANS FOR BUILDING ITS CARS WITHIN AN EU CANDIDATE COUNTRY.

EXPECTED TO MOVE FORWARD WITH A NEW 1 BILLION DOLLAR EV PLANT IN TURKEY.

THE DEAL IS SUPPOSED TO OFFICIALLY BE ANNOUNCED MONDAY-

BUT NEWS OF IT HAS ALREADY SPARKED THEORIES THAT HAVING A PLANT SO CLOSE TO EUROPE WILL MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF TARIFFS.

ALLOWING BYD TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF TURKEY’S CUSTOMS UNION AGREEMENT WITH THE EU TO POTENTIALLY SOFTEN THE BLOW OF THOSE FRESHLY RAISED RATES.

ANKARA ALSO SWEETENED THE DEAL FOR BYD BY DROPPING ITS RECENTLY IMPOSED 50 PERCENT TARIFF ON CHINESE EVS — ALL TO NAIL DOWN THIS LATEST PROJECT

HEADLINES ABOUT A BYD PLANT IN TURKEY COME JUST A DAY AFTER THE AUTOMAKER CONTINUED ITS GLOBAL EXPANSION ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD.

OPENING ITS FIRST FACTORY IN THAILAND THURSDAY, WHERE THE COMPANY ALREADY ACCOUNTS FOR NEARLY 50 PERCENT OF THE THAI EV MARKET.

CHINA IS POSITIONING ITSELF TO LEAD THE WAY IN THE WORLDWIDE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION, DESPITE GLOBAL OPPOSITION TO BEIJING’S EV EXPANSION. 

TO GET MORE STORIES LIKE THIS ONE, DOWNLOAD THE STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS APP AND SIGN UP FOR ALERTS FROM ME – JACK AYLMER – SO I CAN BRING YOU THE LATEST. 

Business

What the June jobs report tells us about the state of the economy


The June jobs report came back a bit of a mixed bag. On the one hand, the U.S. economy added slightly more jobs than expected at 206,000. On the other hand, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%.

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It’s the first time the unemployment rate has been above 4% since late 2021. Analysts had expected unemployment to stay at 4% and anticipated around 200,000 jobs added.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised the previous two months’ jobs data. April was revised down by 57,000 while May was revised down by 54,000, a combined 111,000 fewer jobs over two months.

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“The big downward revisions to April and May are the story,” Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kathy Jones said on X. “Job market is slowing down.”


Historically, an unemployment rate of around 4.1% is strong. But since the economy has been below that for 2.5 years and reached a five-decade low of 3.4% unemployment in 2023, the upward trend is catching attention. 

The Federal Reserve last projected unemployment would be at 4% for 2024 and 4.2% for 2025, so already exceeding that 2024 number makes a rate cut look all the more likely. The Fed is now projecting one rate cut this year. The market is betting the Fed will hold steady for its July meeting and cut in September.


Back in May, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there are two paths to cutting rates.

“That we do gain greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% and another path could be unexpected weakening in the labor market, so those are paths in which you could see us cutting rates,” Powell said.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows prices rose 2.6% annually in May. The more widely-cited consumer price index shows a 3.3% rise in prices. Meanwhile, wages are outpacing inflation, rising 3.9% over 12 months in June, though the pace of wage gains is slowing.

While the latest jobs data still shows a robust labor market, it is softening from its status as one of the strongest labor markets in history. 

An unemployment rate between 4%-5% is considered “full employment,” which is when a country’s available labor is being used in the most efficient way. 

Full employment does not mean zero unemployment. Economists believe there needs to be some level of unemployment to minimize inflation and allow people to move between jobs, pursue education or improve job skills. The idea of full employment is that people looking for full-time work should be able to find it, although it might not be their preferred job.

But initial unemployment claims are trending up and the number of people who are unemployed for more than half a year is also climbing. More than a fifth of the unemployed fall under that category, while the median amount of time people are unemployed is nearly 10 weeks. One year ago, it was 6.4 weeks.

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Simone Del Rosario: June’s jobs report came back a bit of a mixed bag. On the one hand, the U.S. economy added slightly more jobs than expected at 206,000. On the other hand, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%. That’s the first time unemployment’s been above 4% since late 2021. Analysts had expected unemployment to stay at 4%. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised the previous two months’ jobs data. April was revised down by 57,000 while May was revised down by 54,000, a combined 111,000 fewer jobs over two months.

Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kathy Jones said: The big downward revisions to April and May are the story. Job market is slowing down.

Historically, the unemployment rate around 4.1% is very strong. But since we’ve been below that for 2.5 years and reached a 5-decade low of 3.4% unemployment last year, the upward trend is definitely catching attention. 

The Federal Reserve last projected unemployment would be at 4% for 2024 and 4.2% for 2025, so already exceeding that 2024 number makes a rate cut look all the more likely. The Fed is now projecting one rate cut this year. The market is betting the Fed will hold steady for its July meeting and cut in September.

Back in May, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there are two paths to cutting rates.

Jerome Powell: That we do gain greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% and another path could be unexpected weakening in the labor market, so those are paths in which you could see us cutting rates.

Simone Del Rosario: I’d categorize what we’re seeing as definite softening, but softening from one of the strongest labor markets in history. 

An unemployment rate between 4-5% is considered “full employment,” when a country’s available labor is being used in the most efficient way. 

Full employment does not mean zero unemployment. Economists believe there needs to be some level of unemployment to minimize inflation and allow people to move between jobs, pursue education or improve their skills.

The idea of full employment is that people looking for full-time work should be able to find it, although it might not be their preferred job.

But we are finding initial unemployment claims are trending up, and the number of people who are unemployed for more than half a year is also climbing. More than a fifth of the unemployed fall under that category, while the median amount of time people are unemployed is nearly 10 weeks. 

I’m SDR for SAN.