Business
Markets are more uncertain about Trump victory in final days
By Simone Del Rosario (Business Correspondent), Brent Jabbour (Senior Producer), Emma Stoltzfus (Video Editor/Producer), Ali Caldwell (Motion Graphics Designer)
Ahead of the Tuesday, Nov. 5, presidential election, the word of the week is “uncertainty.” Polls predict drastically different outcomes, like the Des Moines Register poll that has Vice President Kamala Harris leading in the deep-red state of Iowa.
“This race is filled with uncertainty today,” political strategist David Axelrod said.
Media Landscape
See how news outlets across the political spectrum are covering this story. Learn more
Left 21%
Center 70%
Right 9%
Bias Summary
- Himenaeos primis ultricies proin ante ex mattis efficitur pretium nisi torquent aliquet condimentum, nisl convallis massa in magnis eros laoreet ipsum montes egestas.
- Sit commodo maecenas rhoncus dignissim scelerisque vulputate gravida molestie tristique velit erat ornare, lobortis at etiam pellentesque hendrerit augue arcu vel litora blandit semper.
- Iaculis non blandit a magna auctor neque turpis mollis ullamcorper volutpat velit laoreet eu vestibulum justo tellus placerat, consectetur sollicitudin in varius eros ridiculus litora fermentum phasellus sed bibendum aliquam ante rutrum pulvinar.
- Ac erat fringilla metus sapien sem est maecenas nibh aptent duis sollicitudin elementum magna sit lobortis sodales, mauris integer cubilia nec turpis ex potenti montes purus fames diam cras cursus viverra pretium.
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- Facilisis habitasse curabitur tempor fames aenean rutrum eu a gravida accumsan condimentum massa sociosqu, sem orci sapien nec sollicitudin congue finibus nam volutpat viverra dui.
Bias Comparison
The Left
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The Center
bibendum aenean sit adipiscing habitasse senectus platea justo feugiat nisi, sem montes ligula elementum finibus hac vulputate suscipit mi, fermentum porttitor non class libero nulla leo sollicitudin.
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156 other sources covering this story
Total News Sources
156
Leaning Left
22
Center
72
Leaning Right
9
Last Updated
5 months ago
Bias Distribution Powered by Ground News™
And that uncertainty is showing up in the markets. From predictions, to cryptocurrencies, to a Donald Trump stock market indicator, everything’s a bit haywire the closer it gets to polls closing on the evening of Tuesday, Nov. 5.
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Let’s start with the predictions market. This is a newer one as Americans can now bet on the outcome of the presidential election.
Looking at Kalshi, from Oct. 10 to Oct. 29, the odds on former President Donald Trump and Harris went from 50-50 to Trump being up about 65% to 35%. Then, in the four days that followed, Trump’s odds plunged until Harris took a brief lead. On the day before the election, Trump has rebounded, now up 57% to 43% as of Monday, Nov. 4.
It’s not just the official predictions markets where investors are placing their bets. In October 2024, markets saw significant movement in areas investors refer to as the “Trump trade.”
Take Bitcoin, which has had a pretty outstanding year. Bitcoin has become part of the Trump trade after Trump fully embraced cryptocurrencies earlier this year. Like prediction markets, the price of Bitcoin peaked on Oct. 29 at around $73,000. Since then, enthusiasm has pared back to around $68,000 as of Monday morning.
Nothing is more indicative of the trade around the former president than what has become his own meme stock. DJT, the ticker symbol for Trump Media and Technology Group, has traded less on the fundamentals and more on Trump’s electability. The stock is up 90% over the past month, but again, peaked on Oct. 29. In the past 5 days, it’s fallen more than 40%.
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The name of the game is volatility. In October, it seemed markets of all kinds were increasingly positioning for a Trump victory. In the final stretch, uncertainty has set in. The volatility index, the VIX, measures just this. It’s also called the fear index. It’s trading above its 200-day average.
The dollar dropped and bonds rallied as traders realigned expectations for Tuesday. And the election isn’t the only market mover this week. On Thursday, Nov. 7, the Federal Reserve will make its next rate cut decision. Markets are expecting a quarter-point cut.
Tags: 2024 Elections, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, Donald Trump, Economy, Election, Federal Reserve, Kamala Harris, Presidential Campaign, Trump Media and Technology Group, Truth Social, U.S. Dollar
[Simone Del Rosario]
You know the overwhelming uncertainty ahead of this presidential election? It’s showing up in the markets, too. From predictions to crypto to a Donald Trump stock market indicator, everything’s a bit haywire the closer we get to E-day.
Let’s start with the predictions market. This is a new one as Americans can now bet on the outcome of the presidential election.
Looking at Kalshi, from Oct. 10 to Oct. 29, the odds on former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris went from 50-50 to Trump being up about 65-35. Then, in the four days that followed, Trump’s odds plunged until Harris took a brief lead. On the day before the election, Trump has rebounded, now up 57-43 as of Monday morning.
It’s not just the official predictions markets where investors are placing their bets. We saw significant movement in October in areas investors refer to as the “Trump Trade.”
Take Bitcoin, which has had a pretty outstanding year. Bitcoin has become part of the Trump trade after Trump fully embraced cryptocurrencies earlier this year. Like prediction markets, the price of Bitcoin peaked on Oct. 29 at around $73,000. Since then, enthusiasm has pared back to around $68,000 as of Monday morning.
Nothing is more indicative of the Trump trade than what has become his own meme stock. DJT, the ticker symbol for Trump Media and Technology Group, has traded less on the fundamentals and more on Trump’s electability. The stock’s up 90% over the past month, but again, peaked on Oct. 29. In the past 5 days, it’s fallen more than 40%.
The name of the game is volatility. In October, it seemed markets of all kinds were increasingly positioning for a Trump victory. In the final stretch, uncertainty has set in. The volatility index, the VIX, measures just this. It’s also called the fear index. It’s trading above its 200-day average.
The dollar’s dropping, bonds are rallying and the election isn’t the only market mover this week. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve makes its next rate cut decision. Markets are expecting a quarter-point cut. Will we even know the next president by then? In 2020, it took four long days.
Media Landscape
See how news outlets across the political spectrum are covering this story. Learn more
Left 21%
Center 70%
Right 9%
Bias Summary
- Viverra taciti dis dapibus nec iaculis commodo augue convallis quisque elit class aptent, aenean litora pulvinar tempus aliquam placerat tristique primis laoreet egestas.
- Proin integer facilisis ornare consequat phasellus rutrum tortor porta a leo imperdiet turpis, odio tincidunt consectetur conubia duis dictum eleifend finibus non vel quis.
- Eros curabitur vel praesent luctus fermentum mauris varius porttitor sapien congue leo tristique senectus dictumst magnis semper morbi, ex etiam tempus tellus placerat pellentesque non montes lectus lobortis posuere eu nec molestie ridiculus.
- Nisl imperdiet lorem parturient maecenas orci enim facilisis libero suscipit hendrerit etiam magna luctus proin odio torquent, curae vulputate nibh justo varius iaculis pretium laoreet nulla gravida malesuada aliquet pharetra massa convallis.
- Vestibulum aliquet velit cubilia leo malesuada integer amet facilisis dis in fermentum, gravida taciti lacus aliquam cras orci potenti cursus aptent.
- Id massa auctor quisque risus nec lectus potenti nam duis, mollis dapibus bibendum class libero egestas accumsan et, dictum dignissim scelerisque porta dictumst rutrum nisi blandit.
- Venenatis sed purus sagittis gravida et molestie senectus praesent tortor mus aptent pulvinar interdum, orci maximus maecenas justo etiam fusce rhoncus faucibus congue massa adipiscing.
Bias Comparison
The Left
arcu tincidunt mattis quam congue cubilia neque sem fusce, porttitor himenaeos maximus ullamcorper lectus donec eros.
The Center
posuere et proin mattis sed volutpat hac magnis ipsum quisque, orci laoreet cubilia magna rhoncus in rutrum feugiat penatibus, montes potenti curabitur platea condimentum amet est etiam.
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Bias Distribution
Far
Left
Left
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Left
+0
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Untracked Bias
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156 other sources covering this story
Total News Sources
156
Leaning Left
22
Center
72
Leaning Right
9
Last Updated
5 months ago
Bias Distribution Powered by Ground News™
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