The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2030, solar energy could generate more electricity than the entire U.S. power system does right now. However, this shift towards renewable energy poses potential challenges for Americans as a result of China’s dominance over the solar industry.

China currently accounts for 40% of the world’s solar capacity, making it the global leader. Recent data from the Chinese National Energy Administration indicates that the nation installed more solar panels in the past year than the entire United States has ever done.

Experts anticipate China’s rapid expansion to continue, with the country poised to double its solar capacity within the next three years to reach one terawatt, enough to power 10 billion light bulbs simultaneously.

“China’s global leadership in renewable energy is evident not only in the scale of investments but also in the widespread adoption of innovative technologies and practices,” said Lin Boqiang, head of Xiamen University’s China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy.

China’s commitment to maintaining this advantage aligns with its ambitious renewable energy goals for 2030, which are now set to be achieved five years ahead of schedule.

Industry groups estimate the value of China’s solar product supply at about $250 billion, with exports extending to over 200 countries and regions. Through 2026, Beijing is projected to control 80% of global solar manufacturing, giving China the capacity to satisfy annual global demand for this technology over the next decade.

“Despite considerable module expansion plans, overseas markets still cannot eliminate their dependence on China,” said Huaiyan Sun, a senior consultant at research firm Wood Mackenzie. “China will still dominate the global solar supply chain and continue to widen the technology and cost gap with competitors.”

This near-monopoly has raised concerns among a bipartisan group of U.S. senators, who warned President Joe Biden in late January about the potential dangers Chinese solar products pose to American economic and energy security. The lawmakers are urging the White House to consider increasing tariffs on Chinese solar panels to prevent an “existential threat” they believe will bring “dire consequences.”

“China’s aggressive subsidies for its own solar manufacturing industry demonstrate its intent to control the industry globally,” the lawmakers wrote. “We must not allow China to destroy U.S. manufacturing and control this strategic energy sector.”

However, charging Chinese solar companies more could ultimately come at a cost to American green energy. When the Commerce Department explored imposing retroactive tariffs on solar panels from China in 2022, industry advocates pushed back. They argued that implementing these could jeopardize 80% of planned American solar projects and lead to thousands of layoffs nationwide.