SIMONE DEL ROSARIO: AFTER JANUARY’S JOBS REPORT JUST BLEW EXPECTATIONS OUT OF THE WATER, WE’RE LOOKING AT DATA UNDER THE HOOD TO SEE IF THERE ARE ANY SIGNS OF A WEAKENING LABOR MARKET UP AHEAD.
AND WE SEE A HINT OF THAT IN TODAY’S JOB OPENINGS REPORT.
THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS SHOWS BY THE END OF JANUARY, JOB OPENINGS DIPPED DOWN TO 10.8 MILLION. THAT’S STILL HISTORICALLY HIGH AND HIGHER THAN THE EXPECTED COOLDOWN, BUT 10% BELOW THE JOB OPENINGS PEAK OF 12 MILLION IN MARCH 2022.
LOOKING AT JOB SEPARATIONS, QUITS ARE DOWN WHILE LAYOFFS AND FIRINGS ARE UP. DRIVING THE DROP IN JOB OPENINGS ARE LOSSES IN CONSTRUCTION, FOOD SERVICES, AND FINANCE AND INSURANCE.
IF YOU’RE WONDERING WHY ECONOMISTS ARE ROOTING FOR THE LABOR MARKET TO GET WORSE…INFLATION IS THE NAME OF THE GAME.
UNEMPLOYMENT IS AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN 50 YEARS, AND DESPITE HIGH PRICES, AMERICANS ARE OUT THERE HEALTHILY SPENDING MONEY, WHICH HELPS KEEP PRICES HIGH. AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS ARGUED THAT TO BRING DOWN INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT WILL NEED TO RISE.
FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL: I WILL SAY – IT’S NOT AN INTENDED CONSEQUENCE.
SENATOR ELIZABETH WARREN: IT IS. IT’S IN YOUR REPORT. THAT WOULD BE ABOUT 2 MILLION PEOPLE WHO WOULD LOSE THEIR JOBS. PEOPLE WHO ARE WORKING RIGHT NOW, MAKING THEIR MORTGAGES. SO, CHAIR POWELL, IF YOU COULD SPEAK DIRECTLY TO THE 2 MILLION HARDWORKING PEOPLE WHO HAVE DECENT JOBS TODAY, WHO YOU ARE PLANNING TO GET FIRED OVER THE NEXT YEAR, WHAT WOULD YOU SAY TO THEM? HOW WOULD YOU EXPLAIN YOUR VIEW THAT THEY NEED TO LOSE THEIR JOBS?
FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL: I WOULD EXPLAIN TO PEOPLE MORE BROADLY THAT INFLATION IS EXTREMELY HIGH, AND IT IS HURTING THE WORKING PEOPLE OF THIS COUNTRY BADLY. ALL OF THEM, NOT JUST 2 MILLION OF THEM, BUT ALL OF THEM ARE SUFFERING UNDER HIGH INFLATION, AND WE ARE TAKING THE ONLY MEASURES WE HAVE TO BRING INFLATION DOWN.
SIMONE DEL ROSARIO: LOOKING AHEAD – FRIDAY WE’LL HAVE THE INITIAL JOBS REPORT FOR FEBRUARY TO SEE IF UNEMPLOYMENT IS GOING UP. AND NEXT WEEK, THE FEBRUARY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, TO SEE IF INFLATION IS GOING DOWN. I’M SIMONE DEL ROSARIO, IN NEW YORK IT’S JUST BUSINESS.