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Experts predict tropical storms Waves crash the balustrades on Bayshore Boulevard during high tide after Tropical Storm Elsa churns up the Gulf coast, in Tampa, Florida, U.S., July 7, 2021. REUTERS/Octavio Jones
U.S.

It could get worse: experts predict more tropical storms


Experts from Colorado State University adjusted the number of tropical storms they predict will hit during the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday.

They now say 20 named storms will hit. That’s up from 17 predicted in April and 18 last month. It’s also up almost 39 percent compared to the 30-year average.

Those 20 include Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, and Elsa, which have already formed.

“Sea surface temperatures averaged across most of the tropical Atlantic are now near to slightly above normal, and most of the subtropical North Atlantic remains warmer than normal,” the report said. “Elsa’s development and intensification into a hurricane in the tropical Atlantic also typically portends an active season. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

One of the three new expected storms is expected to be a hurricane. Researchers still expect four of those hurricanes to be major hurricanes, meaning they reach category three or above. There is a 68 percent chance at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coast. The average for the 20th century is 52 percent.

There is a 43 percent chance at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the East coast, and a 43 percent chance at least one major hurricane will hit the Gulf Coast.

The revised forecast is in line with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) outlook issued in late May.

NOAA forecasters called for between three and five major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour in 2021.

NOAA also forecasts between six and 10 hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph to form out of between 13 and 20 named tropical storms with winds of at least 39 mph.

This year is forecast to be the sixth straight above-average U.S. Atlantic hurricane season. The 2020 season had a record 30 named storms.

The hurricane season began on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30.

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