Israel may be considering a preemptive strike on Iran as a means to deter its nuclear program, according to a portion of a top-secret intelligence report leaked on the platform Discord earlier this year. The document, classified as top secret, was coded as the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and first reported by the Israeli outlet Ynet in April.
The leaked document dated Feb. 23 reveals “Israel conducted a large-scale exercise, probably to simulate a strike on Iran’s nuclear program and possibly to demonstrate Jerusalem’s resolve to act against Tehran.”
This document cites a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that found traces of near weapons-grade uranium at one of Iran’s facilities. The amount detected approaches a “declared redline” for Israel, per the document.
“Netanyahu probably calculates Israel will need to strike Iran to deter its nuclear program and faces a declining military capability to set back Iran’s enrichment program,” the document speculates.
Notably, Iran has denied enriching uranium to the claimed 84% level mentioned by the IAEA. However, experts highlight that the critical threshold for creating an atomic bomb is 90%.
If Iran were to acquire a nuclear weapon, it would join the list of nine other countries known to possess nuclear weapons.
The leaked CIA report contains a factual inaccuracy where it mistakenly refers to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as “president.” The document may include other errors.
The intelligence notes the CIA’s uncertainty regarding Israel’s intentions and near-term plans to attack Iran:
“CIA does not know Israel’s near-term plans and intentions. Israel may wait to see U.S. and international reaction to the IAEA’s findings regarding Iran’s nuclear program and whether Iran’s supreme leader will authorize uranium enrichment to weapons-grade before deciding whether to take action,” the document reads.
The Intercept reports that President Biden has not opposed a unilateral Israeli attack on Iran — and his national security adviser recently hinted at blessing it.
“We have made clear to Iran that it can never be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon,” Jake Sullivan said in a speech earlier in May, reiterating the administration’s often-repeated line.
In the meantime, Iran is increasing its arsenal as it prepares to receive two dozen SU-35 heavy multi-role fighter jets from Russia.
The two countries have seen their ties deepen in recent months.
Iran has also reportedly supplied Moscow with hundreds of lethal drones amidst Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
