Recent polling in New York State — traditionally considered a stronghold for Democratic candidates — has sparked speculation about its role in the upcoming November elections. The notion of New York becoming a battleground state has gained traction among some elected officials and political analysts, driven by several key factors.
Firstly, there has been a notable tightening in polling numbers, particularly in certain districts and statewide. Recent polls indicate a narrowing lead for President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump within an eight-point margin. Some polls suggest a closer race than expected in a state where Democrats typically outnumber Republicans 2 to 1. For instance, in a swing New York House district, two private polls reviewed by Politico show Trump leading Biden by one point.
This shift has prompted concerns and discussions among Democratic leaders who spoke with Politico. According to reports, there is internal debate within the Democratic Party about the effectiveness of Biden’s campaign strategy in New York and the broader implications for the party’s control of Congress.
Democratic figures such as Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine have publicly described New York as potentially becoming a battleground state.
“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20-25 years it has been,” Levine said. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now. The implications for control of Congress are real enough that I think this needs more national attention.”
Meanwhile, recent closed-door meetings among Democrats in Washington have reportedly included candid assessments of Biden’s electoral prospects. Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, D, was cited in media reports expressing doubts about Biden’s ability to win in November.
“Joe Biden was nine points up at this time the last time he was running, Hillary was five points up,” Bennet said. “This is the first time in 20 years a Republican president has been up at this point in the campaign. Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win this election and maybe win it by a landslide and take with him the Senate and the House.”
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in a recent interview, neither advocated for nor against Biden remaining in the race. She urged colleagues to withhold public commentary on internal party discussions.
The evolving dynamics in New York reflect broader uncertainties within the Democratic Party as it prepares for the general election.