- The U.S. has begun relocating Marines from Okinawa to Guam, with 105 troops moved so far, as part of a 2012 agreement to reduce the U.S. military presence in Okinawa. The plan aims to relocate 9,000 Marines, nearly half of the force stationed in Okinawa.
- Construction delays, local opposition and regional security concerns have pushed the timeline back, with officials estimating it may take another decade to complete the transition.
- The relocation is part of a broader U.S. strategy to modernize its military presence in the Indo-Pacific, countering growing threats from China while addressing local concerns.
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The first 105 U.S. Marines originally assigned to Okinawa have moved to Guam, marking the start of a long-planned relocation under a 2012 agreement between the United States and Japan. The plan calls for 9,000 Marines, nearly half of the force stationed in Okinawa, to leave.
However, construction delays, political opposition and regional security concerns have pushed the timeline back significantly. Officials now estimate it could take another decade to complete the transition.
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What led to the relocation plan?
The decision to reduce the U.S. military presence in Okinawa stems from decades of local opposition. In 1995, the rape of a schoolgirl by three U.S. servicemen sparked mass protests and renewed demands for Washington and Tokyo to scale back the American footprint.
Negotiations resulted in a compromise: relocating some U.S. forces to less populated areas of Japan, Guam and Hawaii. Despite the agreement, implementation has been slow.
What is the status of the new air base in Okinawa?
A key element of the realignment is the construction of a new air base at Camp Schwab, intended to replace the aging Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, which sits in a crowded urban area. However, Japan’s defense ministry estimates the new base will not be operational until at least 2036.
This delay has fueled frustration among Okinawans, who continue to voice concerns about noise, pollution and crime linked to the military presence. Okinawa still hosts 70% of U.S. military facilities in Japan, despite making up just 0.6% of the country’s land area.
How has China’s military presence affected the relocation debate?
China’s increasing military activity in the region has shifted the conversation on U.S. forces in Okinawa. During the week of Feb. 10, Chinese warships sailed near Okinawa as part of ongoing naval exercises.
U.S. and Japanese officials argue that the American presence is now more critical than ever to counter growing threats in the Indo-Pacific, including tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea. This strategic concern has made both Washington and Tokyo hesitant to accelerate the Marine relocation, despite previous agreements.
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Is the U.S. reducing its presence in the Indo-Pacific?
Although Marines are leaving Okinawa, the U.S. is not reducing its overall military footprint in the region, only repositioning forces.
Japan is investing $2.8 billion in the construction of Camp Blaz in Guam, while another $1.5 billion per year is allocated for infrastructure upgrades in Okinawa. The goal is to modernize military capabilities while balancing local concerns and security needs.
The Marines’ relocation to Guam is only the first step in a complex, decades-long realignment of U.S. forces in the Pacific. Continued construction delays, geopolitical tensions and local opposition could further extend the process. While the transition is underway, questions remain about when, or if, the full relocation will be completed.
[Ryan Robertson]
THE FIRST 105 U.S. MARINES ORIGINALLY DEPLOYED TO OKINAWA, JAPAN ARE NOW IN GUAM, MARKING THE START OF A LONG-PLANNED RELOCATION UNDER A 2012 AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND JAPAN.
THE MOVE, WHICH BEGAN IN DECEMBER, IS THE FIRST MAJOR STEP IN REDUCING THE U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE IN OKINAWA.
BUT THE TRANSITION IS FAR FROM COMPLETE—CONSTRUCTION DELAYS, POLITICAL OPPOSITION, AND SHIFTING SECURITY CONCERNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TIMELINE BACK FURTHER. WHILE THE RELOCATION IS FINALLY UNDERWAY, OFFICIALS SAY IT COULD TAKE ANOTHER DECADE TO FINISH
THE MOVE STEMS FROM DECADES OF DISPUTES OVER THE U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE IN OKINAWA. IN 1995, THE RAPE OF A SCHOOLGIRL BY THREE U.S. SERVICEMEN SPARKED MASS PROTESTS, LEADING WASHINGTON AND TOKYO TO NEGOTIATE A PLAN TO REDUCE THE AMERICAN FOOTPRINT. THE COMPROMISE WAS TO RELOCATE TROOPS TO LESS POPULATED AREAS OF JAPAN, GUAM, AND HAWAII. BUT IMPLEMENTATION WAS OBVIOUSLY SLOW.
A NEW AIR BASE AT CAMP SCHWAB IS MEANT TO REPLACE THE MARINE CORPS AIR STATION FUTENMA, WHICH SITS IN A CROWDED URBAN AREA. BUT JAPAN’S DEFENSE MINISTRY SAYS THE NEW BASE WON’T BE OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST 2036. MEANWHILE, OKINAWA STILL HOSTS 70% OF U.S. MILITARY FACILITIES IN JAPAN. MANY RESIDENTS SAY THEY BEAR AN UNFAIR BURDEN—DEALING WITH NOISE, POLLUTION, AND CRIME TIED TO THE BASES.
AT THE SAME TIME, CHINA’S GROWING MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE REGION IS SHIFTING THE DEBATE. JUST LAST WEEK, CHINESE WARSHIPS SAILED NEAR OKINAWA AS PART OF ONGOING NAVAL EXERCISES. U.S. AND JAPANESE OFFICIALS SAY THE AMERICAN PRESENCE IS MORE CRITICAL THAN EVER TO COUNTER THREATS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC, INCLUDING TENSIONS OVER TAIWAN AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
FOR MORE ON RECENT MILITARY ENCOUNTERS, INCLUDING A CLOSE CALL BETWEEN A CHINESE HELICOPTER AND A PHILIPPINE PATROL PLANE, VISIT OUR WEBSITE.
L3: JAPAN INVESTS BILLION IN NEW U.S. BASE ON GUAM, OKINAWA REBUILDING
EVEN WITH THE RELOCATION, THE U.S. ISN’T REDUCING ITS PRESENCE IN THE REGION—IT’S JUST REPOSITIONING IT. JAPAN IS SPENDING $2.8 BILLION ON THE NEW CAMP BLAZ IN GUAM — WHICH OPENED LAST MONTH.
ANOTHER $1.5 BILLION PER YEAR GOES TO INFRASTRUCTURE UPGRADES IN OKINAWA. THE GOAL IS TO MODERNIZE MILITARY CAPABILITIES WHILE BALANCING LOCAL CONCERNS AND SECURITY NEEDS.
FOR NOW, THE MARINES’ MOVE TO GUAM IS A FIRST STEP IN A COMPLEX, DECADES-LONG REALIGNMENT. BUT WITH ONGOING DELAYS, SECURITY CHALLENGES, AND OPPOSITION ON THE GROUND, QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT WHEN—OR IF—THE FULL TRANSITION WILL EVER BE COMPLETED.
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