SIMONE DEL ROSARIO: THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS UNDER NO IMPRESSION SKY-HIGH INFLATION IS A TWO-YEAR BLIP.
MINUTES FROM THEIR LATEST MEETING SHOW THE ENTIRE COMMITTEE AGREES THEY SHOULD CONTINUE HIKING INTEREST RATES THIS YEAR AND THEN HOLD THEM HIGH THROUGH 2023. READ: NO PIVOT.
BUT THESE MINUTES ALSO INDICATE THE FED’S WORRIED THEIR RESOLVE IN FIGHTING INFLATION COULD BE UNDERMINED BY THE MARKETS, WHICH HAVE PRICED IN A FED PIVOT LATER THIS YEAR.
SAYING BECAUSE MONETARY POLICY WORKED IMPORTANTLY THROUGH FINANCIAL MARKETS, AN UNWARRANTED EASING IN FINANCIAL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IF DRIVEN BY A MISPERCEPTION BY THE PUBLIC OF THE COMMITTEE’S REACTION FUNCTION, WOULD COMPLICATE THE COMMITTEE’S EFFORT TO RESTORE PRICE STABILITY.
BASICALLY, IF MARKETS DON’T BELIEVE THE FED WILL BE AS RESTRICTIVE AS IT SAYS, THEN IT LESSENS THE IMPACT OF THOSE RESTRICTIONS ON BRINGING DOWN PRICES.
SO WHERE ARE THE MARKETS ON THIS?
MORE THAN TWO THIRDS OF ECONOMISTS SURVEYED BY THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ARE BETTING THE U-S WILL HAVE A RECESSION IN 2023, HENCE THE PIVOT.
THEY CITE RED FLAGS LIKE DWINDLING SAVINGS, THE HOUSING MARKET DECLINE, AND BANKS TIGHTENING LENDING STANDARDS.
AND A LOT OF THAT TIES BACK TO THE FED HIKING INTEREST RATES.
THIS IS INTERESTING, LET’S TAKE THAT LAST ONE, BANK TIGHTENING.
THIS CHART SHOWS AROUND EVERY TIME TIGHTENING STANDARDS HAVE PEAKED THE PAST 30 YEARS, THERE’S A RECESSION. THAT’S THE SHADED PART. AND LOOK WHERE THE CHART’S HEADING NOW.
BUT IN HIS LAST PRESS CONFERENCE, FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL NOTED THE COMMITTEE’S NOT DEBATING WHAT TYPE OF RECESSION TIGHTENING COULD CAUSE.
THE WORD RECESSION, ONLY MENTIONED THREE TIMES IN THE MINUTES, WITH STAFF NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A RECESSION IN THE NEXT YEAR IS PLAUSIBLE.
I’M SIMONE DEL ROSARIO IN NEW YORK IT’S JUST BUSINESS.