NEW WAR GAME SIMULATIONS SHOW IF CHINA INVADES TAIWAN AND A FULL-FLEDGED WAR BREAKS OUT, CHINA WOULD LIKELY LOSE. HOWEVER, THE COST OF SUCH A WAR WOULD ALSO LEAVE THE U.S., JAPAN AND TAIWAN MILITARILY AND ECONOMICALLY DEVASTATED. 

 THE WAR GAMING WAS CONDUCTED BY THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES. CSIS SAID A CHINESE INVASION OF TAIWAN WOULD REQUIRE A MASSIVE AMPHIBIOUS ASSAULT OF THE ISLAND, AND SUSTAINED ACCESS TO REINFORCEMENTS AND RESUPPLY. 

 ACCORDING TO THE 24 SIMULATIONS RUN, VICTORY FOR TAIWAN DEPENDS ON FOUR KEY THINGS. TAIWAN’S GROUND FORCES HAVE TO CONTAIN CHINESE BEACHHEADS, THE U.S. NEEDS TO USE ITS MILITARY BASES IN JAPAN FOR COMBAT OPERATIONS, THE U.S. WILL NEED A MASSIVE STOCKPILE OF ANTI-SHIP CRUISE MISSILES IN THE REGION, AND TAIWAN WILL NEED TO BE FULLY ARMED BEFORE THE SHOOTING STARTS. 

 THE WAR GAMES ESTIMATE CHINA WOULD LOSE 10,000 TROOPS, AND MOST OF ITS NAVY AND MILITARY AIRCRAFT IN AN INVASION.  

 IN DEFENSE OF TAIWAN, THE U.S. AND JAPAN WOULD LOSE DOZENS OF SHIPS, HUNDREDS OF AIRCRAFT AND THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE.  EVEN IF CHINA IS DEFEATED, HOWEVER, THE CSIS REPORT SAYS IT COULD BE A PYRRHIC VICTORY FOR THE U.S., MEANING IT CAME AT TOO GREAT A COST. 

 THE CSIS REPORT IS UNIQUE, SINCE MOST WAR GAME RESULTS INVOLVING THE U.S. AND CHINA AREN’T MADE PUBLIC. BUT THE CSIS WANTS TO CAUTION JUST BECAUSE IT WAR GAMED A CONFLICT IN THE INDO-PACIFIC, DOESN’T MEAN THERE WILL BE ONE. 

 ON THE CONTRARY, THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES SAID THE PURPOSE OF WAR GAMING IS TO LEARN ABOUT POSSIBLE OUTCOMES, SO WE CAN PREVENT THEM FROM HAPPENING. 

 I’VE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS BETWEEN TAIWAN AND CHINA FOR SOME TIME. IF YOU’D LIKE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS TOPIC, VISIT STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS DOT COM.