President Joe Biden’s approval ratings shot up to 44% according to a new Gallup poll, his highest rating this year. But he’s still underwater because 53% of Americans disapprove of his job performance. The poll was conducted between Aug. 1-23, that includes the time when Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act. 

This is an increase from July when he had just 38% approval, his lowest mark of the year. The improvement is largely driven by independents. That number increased nine points from 31% in July to 40% in August. 

“Biden, whose approval rating was slumping prior to August, appears to be benefiting from recent wins as well as a slightly improved economy. A Gallup analysis of key election indicators in June suggested that the U.S. political environment was particularly unfavorable for Democrats,” Gallup’s Megan Brenan wrote in the poll’s release. 

The president received his best marks on his response to the coronavirus, the environment and education, and worst scores on gun policy, abortion policy, and the economy. 

So how could this impact the midterms? Historical context is available from previous presidents’ approval rating and their success in the midterms elections. 

History shows the president’s party usually loses seats in the House of Representatives. Every president going back to Reagan, except George HW Bush, had an August approval rating in the 40’s during one of their terms and lost a substantial number of House seats. As of now, President Biden is following a very similar trend. The exception is 1998 and 2002, when Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were able to make gains.

“Biden’s job approval remains below the 50% mark, which usually spells a difficult midterm election year for the incumbent president’s party — but if Biden can keep this momentum going, it could positively impact congressional Democrats’ chances in November,” Brenan wrote.