America is not ready for a major war, says a bipartisan commission

A bipartisan commission report reveals that the United States is critically unprepared for a major military conflict, facing significant challenges from China and Russia. The report highlights alarming shortfalls in military readiness, including munitions shortages, recruitment challenges, and an inadequate defense industrial base. It calls for urgent modernization of the military, increased defense funding, and greater public awareness of national security threats. The commission emphasizes the need for sustained leadership and a fundamental shift in mindset across government to address these critical issues and enhance America’s defense capabilities in an increasingly complex global landscape.

1) America’s Military Readiness Crisis: Bipartisan Commission Sounds Alarm

A bipartisan commission report reveals that the United States is critically unprepared for a major military conflict, citing significant shortfalls in readiness and growing threats from China and Russia. The report calls for urgent action to modernize the military and increase national security awareness.

• The U.S. is critically unprepared for a major military conflict, according to a bipartisan commission report commissioned by Congress. (Source ref: 1,4,32)
• China and Russia have emerged as top threats to U.S. security, with China significantly eroding U.S. military advantages in the Western Pacific over the past two decades. (Source ref: 4,8,13)
• The report criticizes the Pentagon, Congress, and the Executive Branch for systemic issues hindering the military’s ability to address threats from major powers. (Source ref: 4,33)
• Experts warn that the U.S. is particularly vulnerable in a sustained conflict scenario, raising concerns about the country’s capacity to engage in prolonged warfare. (Source ref: 4,32)

2) China-Russia Alliance Reshapes Global Security Landscape

The emerging partnership between China and Russia is fundamentally altering the global security landscape, posing unprecedented challenges to U.S. military dominance. Their increased cooperation and joint military exercises necessitate a reevaluation of America’s strategic preparedness.

• China and Russia have established a ‘no-limits’ partnership that extends to military and economic ties with Iran and North Korea, aiming to undermine U.S. global influence. (Source ref: 8)
• Recent joint military exercises, including Russian and Chinese bomber flights near Alaska, underscore the growing operational coordination between these powers. (Source ref: 9,10)
• This new geopolitical axis increases the risk that any localized conflict could rapidly escalate into a multi-theater or global war. (Source ref: 39)

3) Critical Shortages Threaten U.S. War Capabilities

The report reveals alarming shortfalls in U.S. military readiness, highlighting critical munitions shortages and an inadequate defense industrial base. These deficiencies could severely limit America’s ability to sustain a prolonged conflict, particularly against a major power like China.

• Pentagon munitions stockpiles could be depleted within three to four weeks in a protracted war with China. (Source ref: 17,43)
• Certain critical munitions, such as anti-ship missiles, are in such short supply that they might last only a few days in a conflict scenario. (Source ref: 19)
• The U.S. defense industrial base is currently unable to meet the equipment, technology, and munitions needs of both the United States and its allies, even during peacetime. (Source ref: 36)

4) Recruitment Challenges Undermine Military Strength

The U.S. military faces a significant personnel shortage due to persistent recruitment challenges, despite improved retention rates. This manpower deficit threatens America’s ability to respond effectively to multiple global threats.

• Recent recruitment shortfalls have led to a decrease in the size of the Army, Air Force, and Navy. (Source ref: 5)
• While retention rates for current service members remain strong, the struggle to attract new recruits poses a significant challenge to maintaining a robust fighting force. (Source ref: 29)
• The recruitment crisis comes at a critical time when the U.S. military needs to be prepared for potential multi-theater engagements. (Source ref: 30)

5) Modernization: A Critical Imperative for U.S. Defense

The U.S. military faces an urgent need for technological modernization to maintain its global edge. A bipartisan commission highlights the necessity of adopting cutting-edge technologies and streamlining bureaucratic processes to prepare for potential major conflicts.

• The Pentagon must prioritize the integration of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyber warfare capabilities, and hypersonic weapons. (Source ref: 14)
• A comprehensive review of major military systems is essential to ensure battle-readiness and eliminate obsolete programs. (Source ref: 16)
• The commission recommends that Congress and the Pentagon work together to remove barriers to innovation and streamline procurement processes. (Source ref: 35)

6) Economic Realities of National Defense Funding

The landscape of U.S. defense spending reveals a complex interplay between historical trends, current economic constraints, and emerging global security needs. While the percentage of GDP allocated to defense has declined significantly since the Reagan era, recent geopolitical events have prompted large supplemental security expenditures.

• U.S. defense spending has decreased from 6.8% of GDP during the Reagan era to around 3% today. (Source ref: 24,25)
• Recent fiscal constraints have limited Pentagon budget increases to 1%, effectively resulting in a cut when accounting for inflation. (Source ref: 26)
• Despite budget limitations, the U.S. has responded to global crises with substantial supplemental security bills, including a recent $95 billion package supporting Ukraine, Israel, and Indo-Pacific countries. (Source ref: 27)

7) Mobilizing Public Support for Defense Readiness

The report serves as a wake-up call, highlighting the need to mobilize public support for enhancing America’s defense readiness. It underscores the alarming disconnect between the American public’s awareness and the potential impact of a major war, calling for a bipartisan effort to address these critical issues.

• The American public is largely unaware of how a major war could disrupt every aspect of daily life, from utilities to internet services. (Source ref: 20)
• The commission calls for a bipartisan effort to galvanize support for necessary changes and investments in national defense. (Source ref: 44)
• Implementing the commission’s recommendations will require sustained presidential leadership and a fundamental shift in mindset across various government bodies. (Source ref: 40)

References

1) The report, commissioned by Congress, found that the U.S. “is not prepared today” for a major military conflict. (sources: 1, type: Fact)
2) The quadrennial review of U.S. national security preparedness brings together “a group of outside experts to review the country’s national defense strategy.” (sources: 1, type: Fact)
3) Its goal is to provide an independent assessment of the nation’s preparedness. (sources: 1, type: Fact)
4) A report has found that the United States military is “not prepared” to fight in a major war, as “major powers” — such as Russia and China — have become “top threats” to the U.S., with China “outpacing” the U.S. The report, which the Commission on the National Defense Strategy released in July, reveals that while the U.S. is currently facing some of “the most serious and most challenging” threats since 1945, several problems are preventing the U.S. military from being able to address threats from China or Russia. (sources: 2, type: Fact)
5) The report also notes that the U.S. military has faced “recent recruitment shortfalls” that have led to a decrease in “the size of the Army, Air Force, and Navy.” (sources: 2, type: Fact)
6) “The United States last fought a global conflict during World War II, which ended nearly 80 years ago. (sources: 2, type: Fact)
7) The nation was last prepared for such a fight during the Cold War, which ended 35 years ago. (sources: 2, type: Fact)
8) China and Russia are described as major powers that are trying “to undermine” the influence of the U.S., with China “outpacing the United States”: The report adds that China and Russia established a “no-limits” partnership in February 2022 that has “only deepened and broadened to include a military and economic partnership with Iran and North Korea.” (sources: 2, type: Fact)
9) Most recently, it was reported that Russian and Chinese bombers had been flying together off the coast of Alaska. (sources: 2, type: Fact)
10) While the bombers were reportedly not seen as a threat, it represents the first time that Chinese bomber aircraft have flown close to Alaska’s Air Defense Identification Zone and the first time aircraft from both countries have taken off from the same base in Russia. (sources: 2, type: Fact)
11) “The United States last fought a global conflict during World War II, which ended nearly 80 years ago. (sources: 3, type: Fact)
12) The nation was last prepared for such a fight during the Cold War, which ended 35 years ago. (sources: 3, type: Fact)
13) Both China and Russia are bolstering their military capacity while working closer with one another, creating a looming threat from two of the world’s largest superpowers, the report reads. (sources: 3, type: Fact)
14) Newer technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyber warfare and hypersonic weapon capabilities are some of the examples listed as necessary to help modernize the military. (sources: 3, type: Fact)
15) In the event of a multi-theater war, the U.S. will need to work with allies to amplify its military-industrial complex production capabilities, given that it alone is “unable to produce everything needed.” (sources: 3, type: Fact)
16) The Pentagon should also conduct a sweeping review of its major systems to ensure they are up-to-date and battle-ready, and discard any programs that are headed toward obsoletion, according to the commission. (sources: 3, type: Fact)
17) A new high-profile report on US national defense acknowledged that the Pentagon could deplete its munitions within “three to four weeks” in a protracted war with China. (sources: 4, type: Fact)
18) Ammunition stockpiles are particularly lacking, said the eight-person commission, which included a retired Army general, a former Democratic-party congresswoman, and a former US ambassador. (sources: 4, type: Fact)
19) Some important munitions, such as anti-ship missiles, could last only a few days, the commission warned. (sources: 4, type: Fact)
20) The review further stressed that the US public is “largely unaware” of the threats to their country and its allies, saying that most Americans don’t understand how major war stands to affect every aspect of their lives — from water and power supplies to internet services. (sources: 4, type: Fact)
21) This was the finding of a bipartisan panel tasked by Congress to review U.S. defense strategy. (sources: 5, type: Fact)
22) The report wasn’t due until the end of the year, and the panel finished early so that its findings could factor into the presidential election. (sources: 5, type: Fact)
23) “The United States is still failing to act with the urgency required, across administrations and without regard to governing party,” the report says. (sources: 5, type: Fact)
24) During a defense buildup led by President Ronald Reagan, the U.S. spent 6.8% of GDP on defense. (sources: 5, type: Fact)
25) It now spends around 3%, though in real terms defense spending reached its all-time high during the wars on terror earlier this century, according to data from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. (sources: 5, type: Fact)
26) One of the most recent barriers was a deal struck last year to avoid a government default, which capped increases to the Pentagon budget at 1%, a cut when accounting for inflation. (sources: 5, type: Fact)
27) Since the war in Ukraine, the U.S. has passed multiple enormous supplemental security bills — most recently a $95 billion one this April that included funding to support Kyiv, Israel and countries in the Indo-Pacific. (sources: 5, type: Fact)
28) ‘A solution’ But legislation and money do little to solve what the commission calls America’s biggest issue: the home front. (sources: 5, type: Fact)
29) The military isn’t recruiting as many people as it wants, though it’s doing better retaining those who already joined. (sources: 5, type: Fact)
30) Given the threat of Russia, China and Iran in the Middle East, America’s military should be able to fight across multiple theaters at once, it says. (sources: 5, type: Fact)
31) “We find that the situation has deteriorated since the 2018 Commission’s report and that many of the previous recommendations were not adopted,” this report says. (sources: 5, type: Fact)
32) The report warns that the U.S. is unprepared for a sustained conflict with China or Russia, highlighting a crisis of confidence in American national security. (sources: 1, 4, 5, type: Fact)
33) The Pentagon is burdened with bureaucratic processes and outdated military hardware, contributing to a stagnate state. (sources: 3, 3, type: Fact)
34) The U.S. military is no longer prepared to fight in a major war, facing serious challenges from adversaries like China and Russia. (sources: 3, 3, 5, type: Fact)
35) The report emphasizes the need for Congress and the Pentagon to remove barriers to adopting innovation and improve defense production capabilities. (sources: 3, 3, 5, type: Fact)
36) The U.S. defense industrial base is unable to meet the equipment, technology, and munitions needs of the United States and its allies. (sources: 2, 3, 4, 4, type: Fact)
37) “The threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war,” the report states. (sources: 2, type: Quote)
38) “The Commission finds that, in many ways, China is outpacing the United States and has largely negated the U.S. military advantage in the Western Pacific through two decades of focused military investment,” the report reads. (sources: 3, type: Quote)
39) The new axis “creates a real risk, if not likelihood, that conflict anywhere could become a multitheater or global war,” according to the report. (sources: 3, type: Quote)
40) “Implementing these recommendations to boost all elements of national power will require sustained presidential leadership and a fundamental change in mindset at the Pentagon, at the National Security Council and across executive branch departments and agencies, in Congress, and among the American public writ large,” the report reads. (sources: 3, type: Quote)
41) “[We] agree with the Commission’s position that there is still much to do to fully achieve our strategic objectives,” a Pentagon spokesperson told the Daily Caller News Foundation. (sources: 3, type: Quote)
42) They cited a 2022 report from two Center for National American Security analysts that said the US doesn’t have enough arms to “blunt and defeat an initial invasion” from powers like China. (sources: 4, type: Quote)
43) “As a result, unclassified public wargames suggest that, in a conflict with China, the United States would largely exhaust its munitions inventories in as few as three to four weeks,” their report said. (sources: 4, type: Quote)
44) “A bipartisan ‘call to arms’ is urgently needed so that the United States can make the major changes and significant investments now rather than wait for the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11,” it said. (sources: 4, type: Quote)
45) “The nation was last prepared for such a fight during the Cold War, which ended 35 years ago,” the report reads. (sources: 5, type: Quote)
46) Both the timing and tone are an attempt to yank public attention away from domestic issues, such as the border and the economy, said Jane Harman, a former Democratic Congresswoman from California and chair of the commission. (sources: 5, type: Quote)