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41% of Americans believe the US will see a second civil war in next 5 years: Poll


A new Rasmussen Reports poll asked Americans if they believe there is a chance the U.S. sees a second civil war. A large percentage of Americans said they believe that it is not only possible but imminent.

Of registered voters polled, 41% said they believed it’s likely America will see another civil war within the next five years. On the other hand, 49% do not believe a civil war will happen within the next five years and 10% were not sure.

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Of those who believe a civil war is likely, 37% said a civil war is most likely to happen if Biden is reelected. Meanwhile, 25% believe it’s more likely if Trump gets a second term.

The poll was conducted just as the “Civil War” movie hit theaters, sparking a lot of buzz over what a domestic war would look like more than 150 years since the first one.

While ideological rifts have long characterized American politics, recent years have witnessed a deepening partisan divide.

In 2003, a Gallup poll revealed stark differences between Republicans and Democrats on issues such as gun control, with 41% of Republicans favoring less stringent laws compared to 70% of Democrats. Fast forward to 2023, and these positions have become even more polarized, with only 31% of Republicans opposing stricter gun regulations while 84% of Democrats support them.

Today, nearly 60% of Democrats believe abortion should be legal under any circumstance compared to 12% of Republicans. 20 years ago, that partisan split was far less apart. Additionally, more Democrats than Republicans believed the federal government had too much power 20 years ago. Now, that hasn’t only switched, but 73% of Republicans believe the government is too big compared to 31% of Democrats.

A country with largely two political ideologies has a lot less middle ground to stand on today compared to 2003 or 2013, according to the Gallup data. The deepening divide in ideology could explain why 41% of Americans believe a civil war really could happen within just a few short years.

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[KARAH RUCKER]

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF A SECOND CIVIL WAR?

ACCORDING TO A NEW RASMUSSEN POLL –

QUITE A FEW AMERICANS BELIEVE IT’S NOT ONLY POSSIBLE –

BUT THAT IT’S **IMMINENT.

WHILE THE QUESTION MAY SEEM SILLY TO ASK – 

THE RESULTS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING DIVIDE ON OUR OWN TURF –

PERHAPS EXACERBATED WITH AN ELECTION AROUND THE CORNER.

41 PERCENT OF REGISTERED VOTERS BELIEVE ITS LIKELY WE SEE “CIVIL WAR TWO” WITHIN THE NEXT **FIVE YEARS.

49 PERCENT DON’T BELIEVE A CIVIL WAR WILL HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS.

10 PERCENT WEREN’T SURE.

SO IT’S FAIRLY EVEN SPLIT OF AMERICANS BELIEVING THE COUNTRY’S CURRENT DIFFERENCES WILL TURN INTO CONFLICT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS.

OF THOSE WHO BELIEVE A CIVIL WAR IS LIKELY –

37 PERCENT SAY A CIVIL WAR IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN IF BIDEN IS RE-ELECTED.

25 PERCENT BELIEVE IT’S MORE LIKELY IF TRUMP GETS A SECOND TERM.

THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED JUST AS A “CIVIL WAR MOVIE” HIT THEATERS –

SPARKING A LOT OF BUZZ OVER WHAT A DOMESTIC WAR WOULD EVEN LOOK LIKE 150 YEARS SINCE THE FIRST ONE.

“19 states have seceded, the us army ramps up activity, the white house issued warning to the western forces and Florida alliance, the 3 term president assures the uprising will be dealt with swiftly.    

THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN SPLIT OPINIONS OVER MAJOR ISSUES IN THE COUNTRY.

BUT THE PARTISAN DIVIDE HAS SEVERELY DEEPENED OVER THE PAST DECADE.

TAKE THE ISSUE OVER GUN LAWS.

IN 2003 – 41 PERCENT OF REPUBLICANS SAID THE LAW SHOULD BE STRICTER COMPARED TO 70 PERCENT DEMOCRATS.

FAST FORWARD 20 YEARS – BOTH PARTIES HAVE TAKEN MORE POLARIZED STANCES.

31 PERCENT OF REPUBLICANS DON’T WANT MORE GUN RESTRICTIONS.

WHILE 84 PERCENT OF DEMOCRATS DO.

HENCE – A DEEPER DIVIDE.

ANOTHER ISSUE. GLOBAL WARMING.

TWENTY YEARS AGO – IT WAS 41 PERCENT REPUBLICANS SAYING WE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONCERNED COMPARED TO 70 PERCENT DEMOCRATS.

NOW AS YOU CAN SEE – THERE’S **FEWER REPUBLICANS AND A LOT **MORE DEMOCRATS CONCERNED ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE.

TODAY – NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF DEMOCRATS BELIEVE ABORTION SHOULD BE LEGAL UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE – COMPARED TO 12 PERCENT OF REPUBLICANS.

20 YEARS AGO – THE PARTY SPLIT WAS FAR LESS APART.

AND ONE LAST EXAMPLE.

20 YEARS AGO – MORE DEMOCRATS THAN REPUBLICANS BELIEVED THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAD TOO MUCH POWER.

NOW – THAT HASN’T ONLY SWITCHED – BUT A WHOPPING 73% OF REPUBLICANS BELIEVE THE GOVERNMENT IS TOO BIG COMPARED TO 31% OF DEMOCRATS.

A COUNTRY WITH LARGELY TWO POLITICAL IDEOLOGIES.

AND A LOT LESS “MIDDLE GROUND” TO STAND ON.

WILL THE PENDULUM SWING AGAIN TO WHERE THE DIFFERENCES IN OPINION WON’T BE SO POLARIZED?

OR WILL THEY JUST FURTHER SPLIT?

AND IF SO – COULD IT REALLY LEAD TO ANOTHER CIVIL WAR?

I’M KARAH RUCKER.

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