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Alright, it’s on now. Okay. Donald Trump, as you know, he’s announced he’s running for president, right? Okay. Nikki Haley, she has come out, former governor, former ambassador under Trump. She’s running for president as well. Ron DeSatan, I mean, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, he may run. Senator Tim Scott may run. I think Vice President, former VP Pence is going to run. All of this creates a scenario to guarantee a Republican nomination goes to Donald Trump again. Let me explain why.
This is a very similar setup to how Donald Trump won the first Republican primary. If you look at the states Trump was the victor in the Republican primary the first time he decided to run for president, when he came in number one, look at your number two and number three. Your number two and number three candidates had enough votes typically between them sometimes two, three, and four, but those individuals had enough votes to overtake Donald Trump. The problem was this; they split a particular base. Donald Trump consolidated a particular base.
Due to the fact that Republican primaries are not organized based on the normative rules of most general elections, it allows for a plurality. A plurality basically says, we don’t do runoffs, we’re not going to care about consolidating this group or that group, every man for himself, or every woman for herself. As long as Donald Trump is able to basically keep the base of 25, maybe up to 33% of Republicans, he likely wins again, with the base of Republicans he can’t get being split significantly among the other candidates.
The delegate process is a process that allows for strategy. You do have to come in strong with numbers, but it’s really a game of consistently bringing out your own base. While Pence has a base, he does not have a base like Trump. Nikki Haley has a base; not a base like Trump. The only person who may actually have a base comparable to Trump is Ron DeSatan…DeSantis, possibly, alright. I don’t think he’s there yet but he could possibly get there if he wanted to run for president. But as of now, he has not announced it.
Why is this important? This is not a bad thing for Democrats. As a matter of fact, Democrats should be hoping that Donald Trump wins. And it looks like the only way he could do it is if those running against him in the Republican primary naturally split the Republican vote while he consolidates those who would support him, alright. Democrats should be happy about this and should support that model because the only person that Joe Biden beats damn near every time a poll is done, is Donald Trump. He doesn’t beat DeSantis in those same polls.
As a matter of fact, if you take away the name of the Republican and just say, “Hey, random Republican for President, Joe Biden for president,” the random Republican wins. Joe Biden does not. When you put up Trump, Trump loses, Joe Biden wins. Alright, okay, so just food for thought. We will see how this shapes up.
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